As we look at risers and fallers in points leagues, the focus should not just be on how players are performing, but what their role is.
Are your hitters suddenly leading off or batting lower in the order than expected? Have they gotten an off-day, and is it because the manager put them in a platoon? Or did they get subbed out at the end of a game for defensive reasons?
As for pitchers, did they get pulled after just 70-80 pitches, or were they allowed to work deep into the game? And could anyone on the IL or in the minors threaten their rotation spot?
As volume is everything in points leagues, these are the questions you want to answer beyond just whether a player gets hot. So, given their role and their performance, who should you buy in on, and who should you leave alone?
Risers
Well, that didn’t take long. Griffin looked a little outclassed during his first month in the Majors, batting .231 in April with a .631 OPS (though he did net seven steals). Now that the calendar’s turned to May, Griffin has been pouring it on, with a .500 average and as many XBH’s in the last week as he had in his first 100 plate appearances.
We all knew the stud rookie would click eventually, and with other MLB noobs like Kevin McGonigle lighting it up right away, it was going to be sooner rather than later. So, what’s changed?
First and foremost, Griffin’s becoming more selective. That translates into a whiff rate that’s dropped from 31.8% in his first fifteen games to 22.4% in his last ten (and a K-rate that’s gone from 33.3% to 16.2%). His Chase rate on breaking pitches was well above 35% to start the season, and that’s gone way down as well.
Second, Griffin’s updated his swing mechanics. He’s dropped his hands slightly to get a cleaner and quicker path to the baseball, cutting down on his pop-ups and other poor contact.
If this hot streak continues (and everything says it should, though he’s still so young), it’s only a matter of time before Griffin starts climbing out of the bottom third of the batting order. My guess is he’ll be hitting fifth or sixth regularly by this time next month, and could eventually slot in the two-hole.
Bleday’s been up with the Reds for just over a week now, but already he’s supplanted Matt McLain as the number-two hitter and is mashing. Bleday was a former first-round draft pick with the Marlins in 2019 before getting traded to the Athletics in 2022. He came over to the Reds this offseason and was brought up on April 29th after hitting .341 in AAA with six homers.
After homering last night, he’s now up to five in his first eight games at the MLB level and shows little sign of slowing down. He’s flashing a 75-mph bat speed, hitting the ball an average of 95.2 mph (which would be 98th-percentile if it stuck), and has an xBA of .404.
Are those numbers sustainable? Probably not, and that includes the 16% K-rate and 20% BB-rate. But no one in the league is hotter, and history has shown (like with Nathaniel Lowe) he’s capable of being a plus Major League hitter, which in Great American Ballpark translates to a potential All Star in fantasy. He’s got 25-homer potential and could provide a ton of value hitting ahead of Elly and Sal Stewart.
Something a little bit curious is going on with Michael Busch this year. Never one to swing the bat particularly hard (he’s always been under 70 mph), Busch has somehow dropped from last season’s 92.2 mph Average Exit velo (which was 90th-percentile) to 88.2. That might not sound like a lot, but for MLB hitters it’s a huge difference. Some of Busch’s other metrics have seen a similar decline:
So why is he a riser? Well, it was reported at the end of Spring Training that he was dealing with ‘lingering wrist soreness’, which usually can affect a player’s ability to hit the ball hard. It appears this lingering injury has finally cleared up, as Busch’s metrics are way up from last week (when, for example, his barrel rate was 6.4%). It looks like management has taken notice, as he’s appearing at the top of the lineup card more often, now logging 85 plate appearances batting either first or second. Long story short, it looks like he’s back to last year’s form again.
File this one under ‘not sure where this came from’, but Jung this year looks like a totally different hitter—and that includes when he made the All-Star team with 23 homers and a .782 OPS in 2023. Prior to this season, Jung carried an elevated 27% K-rate; this year, it’s 14.5%. His Whiff rate has always hovered around 30% (with a slight uptick to 25% last season); this year, it’s 16.2%.
Jung has based these improvements on a couple of changes. First, he’s adjusting better in two-strike counts, adopting a contact-first posture. It’s worked well so far, as he’s K-ing in two-strike counts around 25% of the time versus 44% in years past. And like Griffin’s recent adjustments, Jung has dropped his hands and shortened his load, so he can catch up to those elevated fastballs that used to go right by him.
Jung’s now moved up to take Wyatt Langford’s lineup spot while he’s on the shelf. Keep an eye on where he lands when Langford comes back (which might be this weekend but there have been setbacks already). If he stays up in the Texas order and keeps his K-rate steady, he’s a potential top-ten third baseman in points.
Tolle seems to get better with each outing, capped by a seven-inning gem against the Tigers in his last start. He’s in must-own territory now in any points league, with elite metrics all over the place, including an 11.7 K/9 and an xBA of .157. At 6’6″, he has both great extension and throws a fastball that can get up to 98 mph. The former second-rounder rose to Boston’s top prospect and reached #15 on the MLB pipeline rankings by dominating the minor leagues, and it appears his physical tools translate pretty well to the highest level.
One thing worth watching, however: Tolle only threw 91.2 innings last year, and 81 the year before (when he was still in college). He might cap out at something like 130 this season, but don’t expect much more than that.
Fallers
During Spring Training, McLain was hitting more homers than almost anyone and looking like a bounce-back candidate. Unfortunately, that’s all fallen to the earth in the last six weeks. As Bleday has ascended, McLain has gone the other way—dropping from the two-hole and back to last year’s slot at the bottom of the order. He’s also missing a few starts here and there, as Sal Stewart gets penciled in at Second Base and Nathaniel Lowe covers first. McLain’s still a good defender, but it’s apparent that his bonkers Spring was a mirage.
McLain still has some value in Roto, as he can still steal a few bases and might hit 20 homers, but given the 25% K-BB rate and his new spot in the order, he’s a drop in points.
The kind of ‘reliable innings eater’ you typically want in points (he’s going over 190 IP in three of the last four seasons), Valdez has yet to adjust to his new confines in Detroit. Averaging over six innings per start throughout his whole career, Framber sits at just 4.8 this season (though one start was shortened due to an ejection). His WHIP the last three years has shown a steady climb: 1.11, 1.24, and now 1.41, and his K-rate has cratered to 17.9% from a 23.3% career average.
Valdez has always had good luck, with an actual ERA typically lower than his expected. Lately, it appears that luck has changed—partially, perhaps, due to the defense playing behind him. But it’s also clear he’s not getting hitters out the same way he used to.
Maybe he’ll figure it out as the Detroit weather gets warmer, but the efficiency just isn’t there right now. You’re not dropping him, but I’d seek a trade.
