In today’s world of social media and around-the-clock coverage of all levels of baseball, identifying a ’sleeper’ is tricky. Nobody sneaks up on you unless you pop out of nowhere like Quinn Mathews did in 2024. So, deciphering the next big thing is more of a guessing game based on underlying statistical metrics or being the first to notice a sudden skill change, ala Mathews’ increased velocity. None of the players in this article will surprise you if you’re a hardcore baseball fan, but for the casual reader, here are a few names to keep in mind moving forward.
AJ Blubaugh, RHP, HOU
The Astros selected Blubaugh, who was predominantly a reliever in college, with their seventh-round pick in the 2022 draft. Blubaugh succeeded at Wisconsin-Milwaukee, logging 84 innings in 38 appearances with a 3.96 ERA and 14 saves. The Astros immediately flipped the script on the right-hander, stretching him out to be a starter during his abbreviated pro debut in 2022. Blubaugh reported to High-A Asheville to open the 2023 season, making 26 appearances with 12 starts between High-A and Double-A. In 100 innings, he finished with a 4.41 ERA and 112 strikeouts. While his command was inconsistent, Blubaugh had no trouble missing bats, posting a 26.5% strikeout rate.
Building on a solid 2023, Blubaugh spent nearly all of 2024 at Triple-A Sugar Land, posting a 3.71 ERA in 128.2 innings. His walk rate dipped by almost a percent and a half while maintaining a near-25% strikeout rate. A sub-4.00 ERA in the PCL is impressive, considering the favorable hitting environments he pitched in. However, the improvements in his walk rate are even more remarkable, especially with the ABS being used at the level. 2024 was also the first year we got pitch data on Blubaugh.
His repertoire is much deeper than most minor leaguers, with six pitches at his disposal, all with at least 5% usage. Everything works off a mid-90s fastball with over 16 inches of induced vertical break (iVB) and nine inches of run. He throws the fastball over 46% of the time, and it is also his most consistent strike pitch. His headliner is a low-80s sweeper, his best putaway pitch and top breaker. In 2024, the sweeper produced a 33% whiff rate, 35% chase rate, and 17% swinging-strike rate. Blubaugh also got a 17% swinging-strike rate on his changeup, a pitch he throws 15% of the time, and features over 14 inches of arm-side fade. The 24-year-old also throws a curve showing flashes of brilliance, a cutter, and a slider.
The Astros have had plenty of recent success with getting the most out of guys with plus or better breaking pitches, most recently Spencer Arrighetti. Arrighetti had similar control issues in the minors but can overcome them with dominant stuff. I see a lot of similarities with Blubaugh. His stuff hasn’t shown out quite as well as Arrighetti’s, but there’s a lot to work with in his profile. If the command gains stick, the arsenal is deep enough with plenty of encouraging pitch characteristics for Blubaugh to be a viable MLB starter.
Michael Morales, RHP, SEA
Lost in a world of dynamic positional players in the Mariners system is 21-year-old right-hander Michael Morales. Morales was a third-round pick in the 2021 draft. As a prep, Morales was one of the top arms in Pennsylvania, and the Mariners gave him $1.5M to lure him away from his commitment to powerhouse Vanderbilt.
Following the draft, Morales reported to Low-A Modesto, where he spent the entire 2022 season. As a 19-year-old, Morales surrendered a 5.91 ERA in 26 starts. While he logged 125 strikeouts in 120.1 innings, opposing hitters thrived. They capitalized on free passes while also posting a .292 average and a .837 OPS against Morales. After his disappointing debut in 2022, Morales returned to Modesto for all of 2023. He made 22 starts that season, lowering his ERA to 4.53 and improving most of his metrics against. Through his age-20 season, Morales looked exactly like what he was: a young, talented pitcher trying to find his way in pro ball.
2024 was a massive breakout for Morales. The Mariners started him at High-A Everett, one of the most hitter-friendly environments in the minor leagues. Morales tossed 84 innings across 15 starts, posting a 2.36 ERA. His strikeout rate remained firm at 23.1%, while his walk rates fell two points to just over 7%. Following his hot start at High-A, Morales moved to Double-A Arkansas and made 12 starts for the Travelers. Over 65 innings, Morales had a 3.88 ERA with an increased strikeout rate and another two-point dip in walk rate. For the 2024 season, Morales logged 149 innings with a 3.02 ERA, 24.1% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate. His gains were real with his strike-throwing, moving to an overall rate of 66%, a nearly 4% bump over his previous mark.
His overall arsenal does not stand out as elite, but his pitchability and command do. The gains with his strike-throwing, coupled with a mid-20s strikeout rate and workload, give Morales a high fantasy floor. A bonus is pitching in an organization that has developed George Kirby, Bryan Woo, and Logan Gilbert in recent years. I really like Morales as a fantasy asset moving forward.
Andrew Morris, RHP, MIN
Morris was a star at D2 Colorado-Mesa before becoming the ace of the 2022 Texas Tech staff. Even after an outstanding season in the Big 12, Morris was an overlooked fourth-round pick in that year’s draft. His first season in the organization was split between two levels of A-ball as he made 17 starts, pitching 84.1 innings. Morris was successful, pitching to a 2.88 ERA with a 16.8% strikeout-minus-walk rate and 11.9% swinging-strike rate. His stuff took a big step forward last season, jumping from High-A to Triple-A by season’s end. His stellar performance continued as he tossed 133 innings across 24 starts. Morris finished with a 2.37 ERA, averaging a strikeout per inning and holding hitters to a .221 BA. Most of his activity was at Double-A, where he posted a 1.90 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 61.2 innings of work.
Like Morales, Andrew Morris is an excellent strike thrower and commander of his arsenal. His strike rate last season was 68.8%, one of the best in the minors, with a strikeout-minus-walk rate of nearly 19%, which aligns closely with his previous rates. Speaking of the arsenal, Morris has a four-pitch mix that works off his mid-90s fastball. His four-seam has over 16 inches of iVB from a low VAA, adding carry up in the zone. The changeup is his best strikeout pitch and has nearly 20 inches of total movement, including over 13 inches of arm-side run. The curve has also flashed as a bat-misser.
Morris is headed back to Triple-A to open 2025 but figures to be one of the first names called upon when the Twins need a healthy arm. His plus command and deep arsenal give Morris a mid-rotation ceiling and serve as a potential rotation stabilizer in fantasy.
