Great Schedules
Antonio Senzatela (COL) 6/18 vs. MIL 6/23 @ SEA 6/28 vs. PIT
It’s been a tough showing for Antonio Senzatela in his last two starts—both on the road—as he allowed a combined nine earned runs (12 IP). It looks like two of his next three starts will come at Coors Field, as he’s only allowed three earned runs in his last 15 innings in Denver. The Brewers, Mariners, and Pirates rank a respective 28th, 24rd, and 29th in wRC+. None of them have seen Senzatela this year. His 2021 figures have been on a decline (4.86 ERA, 4.21 FIP), but a relatively high BABIP this year (.326) could be a cause of a higher ERA.
Tony Gonsolin (LAD) 6/20 vs. ARI 6/25 vs. CHC 7/1 @ WAS
Tony Gonsolin finally gets his taste of a packed Dodger Stadium again; he’s only made five career starts there without capacity restrictions. He’ll see the Diamondbacks on Sunday while Arizona has been abysmal on the road. The Cubs will serve as a tougher opponent after that (14th in wRC+), but the Nationals on the back end (19th) will put him in solid standing. He’s thrown just 5 1/3 innings across two starts this year.
Lucas Giolito (CHW) 6/22 @ PIT 6/27 vs. SEA 7/2 @ DET
*Avoids HOU 6/18-20, MIN 6/28-7/1
Most of the White Sox staff will have to work around the Astros and Twins, but Lucas Giolito scored himself a lucky draw and awaits wRC+ rankings of 29, 24, and 27. He just faced the Tigers in back-to-back starts and allowed six earned runs across 13 combined innings. Giolito’s second outing with Detroit (6 IP, 2 R) was better than his first (7 IP, 4 R). He allowed one earned run in his previous three starts before that, so he seems primed for his road into July.
David Peterson (NYM) 6/19 @ WAS 6/25 vs. PHI ***6/30 @ ATL***
The Mets have 10 games scheduled over the next eight days. Their starters may therefore have a longer leash; fortunately for arms like David Peterson, his next two starts will come against desirable opponents that might help him keep his pitch totals down. The Mets may also opt to protect one of their younger starters in favor of a long-term plan for longevity, however. Peterson has surpassed the six-inning mark just once this year.
Nathan Eovaldi (BOS) 6/20 @ KC 6/25 vs. NYY 6/30 vs. KC
*Avoids TB 6/22-24
Nathan Eovaldi has posted some solid work against the Yankees this year (6 IP, 1 ER), so his toughest schedule on the horizon is one that he already proved himself against. The Royals will appear on the front and back end of that start, holding the ninth-worst wRC+ in the league. Eovaldi hasn’t pitched against Kansas City since the end of 2019 (3 IP as a reliever), so the Royals will be forced to quickly adapt to a guy they haven’t seen much of.
Shane McClanahan (TB) 6/20 @ SEA ***6/25 vs. LAA*** 6/30 @ WAS 7/5 vs. CLE
*Avoids BOS 6/22-24, TOR 7/2-4
There will be a minor blip in the radar when the Angels visit, but Shane McClanahan is looking at an otherwise solid schedule for all the previously-mentioned Seattle/Washington/Cleveland reasons. McClanahan has completed five innings in just one of his last three starts, however, and he’s posted a 7.15 ERA in that time. One of those outings came against the Nationals (3 IP, 3 ER)
Brett Anderson (MIL) 6/21 @ ARI 6/26 vs. COL 7/1 @ PIT
He gets the coldest team in baseball, followed by the two worst wRC+ figures in the league. Brett Anderson just threw seven shutout innings against the Reds on Tuesday, and he did the same against Pittsburgh in late April. He also avoids Coors Field in his start with Colorado, so this schedule is about as ideal as it gets. Anderson pairs momentum with desirable opponents.
Tyler Anderson (PIT) 6/20 vs. CLE 6/25 @ STL 6/30 @ COL
Not to be confused with Brett, Tyler Anderson will pitch one day ahead and avoid the Milwaukee series altogether. It would be pretty desirable if he did have the Brewers, but the wRC+ figures of his next three opponents rank 20th or below. He will have a start at Coors Field, however.
Johan Oviedo (STL) 6/22 @ DET 6/27 vs. PIT 7/2 @ COL
His next opponents have three of the four lowest wRC+ figures; it doesn’t get much easier than that. Johan Oviedo has completed five innings in one outing this year (seven starts), but his 5.72 ERA could soon see an improved turn—along with some potentially increased workloads if his opponents prove to be easier competition. His last two outings came against the Cubs and Reds, where he allowed a combined six earned runs in 8 1/3 innings.
Bad Schedules
Joe Musgrove (SD) 6/18 vs. CIN 6/23 vs. LAD 6/29 @ CIN
Joe Musgrove was a staple on the ‘good’ schedules during the early season, but a stretch of tough opponents has infiltrated his June lineup. The Reds and Dodgers rank a respective seventh and second in wRC+, and Musgrove recently had a 21-inning scoreless streak snapped with a pair of three-run outings (5 IP vs. NYM, 6 1/3 IP @ NYM). His ERA and xFIP remain in the twos, however, so maybe the opposing lineup doesn’t matter.
Sean Manaea (OAK) 6/20 @ NYY 6/25 @ SF ***6/30 vs. TEX*** 7/6 @ HOU
This schedule could be easier if the Yankees continue their recent slide into the weekend, but Sean Manaea is otherwise looking at some west division frontrunners. The Rangers will at least provide some degree of relief between starts with the Giants and Astros. Manaea has carved through his last five starts (31 1/3 IP, 3 R), so it’s tough to bet against him in any capacity.
Andrew Heaney (LAA) 6/22 vs. SF 6/27 @ TB ***7/2 vs. BAL*** 7/7 vs. BOS
Here’s a comparable schedule to Manaea: three tough opponents with a slightly easier one mixed in. (This type of schedule could be an AL West trend right now.) Andrew Heaney has already shut out the Rays over 6 2/3 innings this year, and also held the Giants to one run over 6 1/3 frames. Maybe this isn’t so bad of a schedule after those showings—but Heaney hit a minor bump in his last start (@ OAK: 5 IP, 3 ER). His FIP (3.64) is currently better than his ERA (4.45), but that same FIP could worsen if these tough opponents keep hitting well.
Bruce Zimmermann (BAL) 6/18 vs. TOR 6/23 vs. HOU 6/28 @ HOU 7/3 @ LAA
This may be the toughest schedule out of anybody. Bruce Zimmermann awaits wRC+ rankings of third, first, and seventh. He hasn’t completed six innings of work since his first two starts of the year, and it’s a tough task to work deep against his future teams. Zimmermann’s schedule has been tough for quite a while, having faced the Rays, Twins, and White Sox in recent appearances.
Kris Bubic (KC) 6/19 vs. BOS 6/24 @ NYY 6/29 @ BOS
*Avoids TEX 6/25-27
This guy has been a staple on the bad schedule list over the past several weeks. Kris Bubic has failed to complete five innings in his last three starts and has posted a 9.69 ERA over that span. He will continue a hellacious stretch of offense as the Red Sox and Yankees fill his schedule through June. The Yankees will take on the Red Sox immediately after the three-game set with Kansas City, and it could be a prime stretch for New York to catch Boston in the AL East standings. Bubic will have a front seat for the competing action.
Jordan Montgomery (NYY) 6/20 vs. OAK 6/25 @ BOS 6/30 vs. LAA
It’s a tough balance of AL West firepower and Red Sox rivalry action for the Yankees’ Jordan Montgomery, also staying on the ‘bad’ list. His recent performance has been reflective of his tough schedule; he allowed four runs to Toronto (5 1/3 IP) after allowing three to the Twins (5 2/3 IP). His last opponent with a below-average wRC+ was Baltimore six outings ago (5/16).
Logan Gilbert (SEA) 6/19 vs. TB 6/25 @ CHW 7/1 @ TOR
*Schedule may change: often throws on six-day rest
Logan Gilbert’s road ahead takes a gradually tough turn. (12th, third, fourth), but at least a quick ‘easier’ opponent in his last start helped boost his momentum. He pitched 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball against Cleveland on Sunday. All six of his starts have progressively improved in terms of runs allowed, and his recent opponents have been generally tougher, too.
Mike Foltynewicz (TEX) 6/18 vs. MIN 6/23 vs. OAK 6/29 @ OAK
*Schedule may change: last start was pushed back
Oakland is still standing atop the AL West, thanks to some serious offense that trails only the Astros in that division. Mike Foltynewicz plays for a team at the bottom of said division, but he has yet to face the A’s this year. He is coming off his two worst starts of the year, allowing five runs against the Rockies (3 2/3 IP) and letting up seven earned to the Dodgers (2 2/3 IP). His start in Los Angeles was delayed by four days too, so Foltynewicz has seen further interruptions.
Soon To Be A Great Schedule
Framber Valdez (HOU) 6/19 vs. CHW 6/24 @ DET 6/29 vs. BAL 7/4 vs. CLE
He’s almost out of the tough stretch: Framber Valdez has made just four starts on the year and they have come against the Padres, Red Sox (twice), and Twins. He’ll see one more grueling lineup on Saturday but will ease his way out with below-average offensive teams. He’s thrown well no matter the opponent, however; he’s allowed just four runs on the year and has completed seven innings in three of his four starts.
Kwang Hyun Kim (STL) 6/20 @ ATL 6/25 vs. PIT 6/30 @ ARI
*Avoids Coors Field 7/1-7/4
He misses the coveted “Nolan Arenado Returns to Colorado” series, but in doing so avoids the elevation and lines up for a prime end to June. His worst start of the year came against the Diamondbacks, however (5 IP, 4 ER).
Soon To Be A Bad Schedule
Johnny Cueto (SF) 6/18 vs. PHI 6/23 @ LAA 6/28 @ LAD
Johnny Cueto will fall into some Southern California offense after an ‘easier’ home start this evening. The Angels and Dodgers both have top-seven wRC+ and Cueto is in line to pitch in the first Dodgers-Giants series with full Dodger Stadium capacity—which is hardly an easy task. He was pushed around a little in his last start (@ WAS: 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER), so perhaps the Phillies start will push him back on the right track.
The Unknown
Hyun-Jin Ryu (TOR) 6/20 @ BAL 6/25 vs. BAL 6/30 vs. SEA 7/6 @ BAL
The Orioles are going to be really tight friends with Hyun Jin Ryu over the next few weeks. Is this a good schedule because Baltimore isn’t a dominant offensive team? Is it a bad one because the O’s will get plenty of looks at Ryu?
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Re Ryu: All depends if his CH is working. He pitches off that offering. It hasn’t been, but I think it’ll come around. I think he’ll bring his ERA down a decent amount over the next month.
There was a stat-based piece on another blog I read recently that’s about the “teams get used to a pitcher” chestnut. Here’s the takeaway:
“if you play fantasy baseball, you can relax when one of your starters faces the same team in back-to-back starts, as we know now on average they will fare just about as well, save perhaps a slight hit on the strikeout rate.”
and there was another piece written more recently that said the difference was about the same as losing the platoon advantage, but really only in the pitcher’s start immediately following the last.