SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 4/3 & 4/4

With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my Starting Pitcher Matchup Rankings & Streaming picks.

Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my pick for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.

The four tiers are as follows:

 

Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.

Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.

Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.

Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.

 

Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.

Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!

Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.

There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.

Finally, I have highlighted in Yellow my streaming pick of the day. These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.

 

Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• The auto-starts are pretty straightforward, as usual. I wouldn’t be concerned with Zack Wheeler against the Braves, nor Charlie Morton on the other side – they should both be able to comfortably toss six frames.
• I am excited to watch Joe Musgrove get the ball for the Padres, though it’s hard not to be slightly worried after the D-backs put up seven runs on opening day. Still, don’t overthink it.
• We’re hoping that the Mets and Nationals are able to begin their seasons on Saturday, though this may change. Monitor the news here.

 

• I went back-and-forth during the livestream about the order of this one and settled on Mike Minor first. He’s the only one with both the high expected volume and a weak lineup ahead of him. Surprisingly, he’s rostered in exactly 20% of leagues, making him my Streaming Pick of the Day. Webb and Houck are the two backup options.
• It was really close with Corey Kluber and Logan Webb. I leaned Kluber in the end given a slightly higher floor as we simply haven’t seen Webb perform at a high level during the regular season yet. Regardless, start both.
• I can’t help but wonder if Tyler Mahle will be allowed to truck through more than five frames as he doesn’t have a long track record of going deep into games.

 

• I’m a fan of Tanner Houck getting the ball against the Orioles, though I pushed him into the third tier as I’m not sure he’ll be allowed to go a full five. Let’s hope he does and carves up the O’s with that filthy slider.
• Elieser Hernandez’s strikeout upside alone makes him a viable start on Saturday, though the Rays offense may be able to take advantage of a shallow repertoire. Don’t underestimate the low floor here.

 

• Let’s be honest. We’re all relieved that I didn’t have to force a Jake Arrieta streaming pick today. The Pirates jumped on Hendricks and they could do the same to a post-prime Arrieta.
• There has been a decent amount of hype around Chris Flexen and I could see a scenario where someone would stream Flexen, but there’s too much haze at the moment and I’ve slotted him as the best play in the worst tier.

 

• I’m not saying that Caleb Smith is a “Do not start” all year, but there’s no reason to put yourself in a dangerous situation against the Padres. Let’s hope he’s sitting 92+ mph on that heater for future games.
• And I’m just going to throw it out there – I wouldn’t be shocked if Matt Harvey was streaming viable at some point this year. There. I said it.

 

Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• Look at that, the best start on Sunday belongs to Aaron Civale, who is slated to get the weak Detroit lineup. Here’s to a wonderful day with his new arm circle.
• Julio Urias is worth your time as he should be good enough to endure the power of Coors. Chris Paddack’s rough spring has some worry, but Ketel Marte is the sole bat to fear in Arizona and he should be able to dance around it.

 

• Leading off the second tier is Zach Davies against a questionable Pirates lineup. I’m willing to wager that the brigade brought on Hendricks was not an indication for a shocking offense through 2021.
• Jose Urquidy should be good to go against the Athletics, though if you’re concerned about the length of the outing, I completely understand pushing him to Tier 3.

 

• Despite my love for Domingo German’s ability, I can’t neglect the strength of Toronto’s offense. The same goes for Zach Eflin, Sean Manaea, Mitch Keller, Carlos Martinez, and Shohei Ohtani, who each have sizeable offenses that will make you heavily consider slotting them into your lineup today.
• On the other side, Garrett Richards and Tarik Skubal each have better matchups and could take full advantage. Dylan Cease is in no man’s land as the Angels are threatening while Cease’s “new” mechanics could take full shape and nullify LA’s bats.

 

• In the final tier, there is a touch of intrigue with Taylor Widener, but San Diego is simply too strong of an offense to spin that wheel.
• Keep an eye on Adrian Houser – I wouldn’t rule out the possibility he finds his heater again this season and it could start in Minnesota.
• It’s unclear who will start for the Jays, but whoever it is, they get the Yankee bats. That’s not what you want.

 

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