With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings
Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.
The four tiers are as follows:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!). These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
2021 Streamer Record: 39-25
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- At the top are your usual suspects as Trevor Bauer shouldn’t be denied the top spot regardless of a decent Atlanta offense.
- Sandy Alcantara hasn’t earned his AGA label yet – two struggles against the best pair of teams he’s faced – but a start against Pittsburgh? Absolutely.
- Marcus Stroman has to endure the Padres, though with the way he’s pitching, I can’t imagine a manager electing to sit him.
- Do you start Max Fried against the Dodgers? I say so. Yes, he wasn’t at his sharpest last time and the Dodgers are a strong team. You have to have faith that the skills will overcome more often than not.
- Domingo German also has a difficult time on Sunday and I’m electing letting him roll as his curveball has been on point over the last month.
- Opposite of Stroman is Chris Paddack who has struggled to find his 2019 groove this season. His fastball is improving, though, and is worth the gamble.
- Leading the way in the third tier is Dane Dunning as the streaming pick of the day. He was far from sharp against the Angels, though he’s showcased the ability to take advantage of middling offenses through the year and the Rays shouldn’t give him a hard time.
- Wade Miley had a lucious cutter last time out and would seem like a solid pay for Sunday. The big hiccup here is how well St. Louis performs against left-handers – #3 in wRC+! – pushing him down the ranks.
- I can’t deny how well Luis Garcia has been dealing despite the rough schedule and even with a date in Buffalo, Garcia should still be heavily considered.
- This current run from Garrett Richards is a bit suspiscious without his slider of old, however it did take a step forward in his last start and could continue the trend against the volatile Yankee offense.
- John Gant is on a ridiuclous strech and forces his way into consideration even when facing a Reds team that sits near the top of runs scored this season.
- Logan Gilbert had solid results last week, though we’re still waiting for his curveball and slider to take their proper leaps forward. This is a dangerous start against the Angels, even with Mike Trout missing.
- In the final tier, I just can’t start Steven Matz as he hosts the Astros. It seems like a recipe for disaster.
- I can’t help but be intriguied by Caleb Smith, though we shouldn’t expect many frames and he hasn’t unlocked his full potential yet.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- We have just six games on Monday, creating the first ranings this season to not have a single pitcher in the “Auto-Start” tier. Wild.
- The closest is Pablo López, who squares off against the Red Sox. I’d be starting him if I had him, but I can understand those who want to play it a little safe on a Monday.
- Adbert Alzolay had little problem against the Padres last time out, though he’s still just in the second tier as the floor is uncomfortably low.
- Despite his recent struggles, Dylan Bundy should be started given the solid matchup + a fair share of poor luck in his last start.
- Nick Pivetta is the streaming pick of the day as he gets a lovely matchup against the Marlins. His fastball is still at 95 mph and often elevated, paired with breaking balls (hopefully) down. It creates plenty of strikeout upside and I’d consider him in leagues where I need to collect volume against my opponents.
- Ryan Weathers was able to toss over 80 pitches in his last start and could be turning a corner in the Padres’ rotation. His stuff hasn’t quite caught up, though, and this could be a frustrating outing against the Cubs.
- Finally, in the final tier is Ervin Santana who isn’t hinting his former 2017 self, nor has shown the ability to go deep into games in his few opportunities this season.
Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)