This is the final SP Roundup of the year and I can’t thank you all enough for joining me for another year at Pitcher List. Let’s do it all again next year and in the meantime, there’s a lot of work to do. I can’t wait for you all to see it.
Miles Mikolas (STL) vs CIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 90 pitches.
It was a season of Miles Mikolas we likely want to forget, but at least it came with two shining moments to end the year. He followed his seven-inning penultimate outing with a similar performance against the Reds, returning a Win with 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 90 pitches, earning a King Cole and nearly a Golden Goal for a pitcher who fails to eclipse a 10% SwStr rate. Ummmm what.
Mikolas has shown whiffability in the past with his slider, but the breaker went just 2/15 whiffs here. The curve has played the part of filth McGee in the past, too, and its 41% CSW was brilliant, but with just four whiffs, the culprit is still afoot. The real answer is 13 whiffs on fastballs, with nine on his four-seamer. Yeah, FOURTEEN WHIFFS.
It’s all kinds of weird and strange and…oh. Blame it on the Reds. They can be horrid against fastballs (remember Kyle Harrison’s brilliance?) and with Mikolas’ lack of vertical break on his four-seamer at 93 mph, you can take a look at this game as a lovely way to send off the season. This Sunday is the witching hour of fantasy, and weird things find a way to come to life. Thanks for bringing the strange today, Mikolas. What about the whole season? Today, Mikolas. Thanks for today.
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
George Kirby (SEA) vs TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 75 pitches.
What a stud. He even threw a sole knuckleball to honor the sad passing of Tim Wakefield. It’s hard not to adore Kirby after a nod like that and this stellar of start, and I imagine many will draft him next season with an expectation of growth in the strikeout department. I haven’t decided if I’m one of them yet.
Tanner Houck (BOS) @ BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
Houck flirted with a no-hitter here, catalyzed in 10/43 slider whiffs. We know about the slider, though, the worry has been everything else and fortunately, he was able to steal enough strikes with them to let the breaker do its work. I’m going to be cautious with Houck next year given the lack of arsenal depth, though that slider is oh-so fun to watch.
Cristian Javier (HOU) @ ARI (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 80 pitches.
6/18 slider strikes. Sigh. It’s going to be awfully weird drafting Javier next year – it feels like he could just be fixed in a heartbeat, but also a HIPSTER and a pain to endure all year once again. I wonder how the consensus will treat him.
Ryan Weathers (MIA) @ PIT (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 99 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! Weathers appeared as a new man, boasting a sinker and slider out of nowhere, sitting 94/95 with a 35% CSW on both pitches and it was kinda good? I still don’t like his command and 55% sinkers doesn’t seem like the way to go, but I hope he won some of y’all some leagues with a start like this. And here I thought it would be Bryan Hoeing…
José Ureña (CWS) vs SD (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 99 pitches.
Wow, a Gold Star for Ureña against the mighty Padres on the final day of the year. Seven whiffs each on both the sinker and slider is something else, while his command of said sinker and changeup were precise, right off the plate armside. The man battled, the Padres obliged, and here we are. Thanks Ureña, that was cool.
Adrian Houser (MIL) vs CHC (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 72 pitches.
Oh look, fastballs around the edges with rare secondaries in the zone for five productive innings. He’ll always be a strange arm to me, and I hate rostering weird arms. Yeah, my cousin has a right-arm that turns green in the sun and it weirds me out. Dude, that’s a cactus. Ohhhhhhhhhhh. Talk about a green thumb.
Kyle Harrison (SF) vs LAD (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 94 pitches.
Oh snap, he pulled it off! With a 4% SwStr rate on his four-seamer! What a weird day, indeed. I dislike Harrison’s Cherry Bomb nature as a slinger from the left side, though I’m willing to wager you’ll see some incredible start in April and wonder if he’s your league winner. The answer will be no and it’ll be so hard to stay disciplined. I’m just trying to be proactive, here. You’re going to really hate me when I tell you he’s not that guy, even after three straight solid outings. COME ON NICK, STOP BEING SO STUBBORN. If the arsenal is different, then fine. But if it’s still four-seamers + curveballs without precision, y’all know it won’t be lasting long.
Pedro Avila (SD) @ CWS (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 81 pitches.
Well well well, the White Sox really are that terrible. Avila got it done here with his changeup and sadly doesn’t sport an arsenal that would get me excited for a potential roster spot next year. But at least he came through for all of us today. Atta boy.
Carson Fulmer (LAA) vs OAK (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 75 pitches.
This sneaky stream actually worked?! Incredible. Don’t forget it as you look at your trophy fondly on the shelf in ten years. This one’s for you, Carson.
Bobby Miller (LAD) @ SF (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 57 pitches.
Yeah, he wasn’t meant to go five frames here – I’m surprised they even started him in the first place. It’ll be interesting to figure out where to rank Bobby tomorrow on The List for next year as it’ll come down to how much I’ll believe in his secondaries & his fastball command. I want to say inside the Top 25 SP, but that may be assuming too much growth. We’ll see.
Andre Jackson (PIT) vs MIA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 49 pitches.
Ahhh, so just 49 pitches and one inning shy of a Win. Bummer. He was a former Dodger prospect and sadly I didn’t see anything during his time this year to suggest we should keep our focus on Jackson for next season. Just not enough to latch onto here.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs BOS (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 32 pitches.
Can’t say I’m shocked by the short leash here as the Orioles want to be as fresh as possible for next weekend’s ALDS series. Incredible work this year, Bradish. I truly hope you can have the same success with your sinker and curve next year, allowing you to save your four-seamer in at-bats instead of making it a focus.
Brent Suter (COL) vs MIN (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 60% CSW, 10 pitches.
He opened for 4.0 IP and 2 ER of Connor Seabold. Yay.
Matt Strahm (PHI) @ NYM (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 13 pitches.
We saw Nick Nelson get 5.1 IP of 1 ER ball across nearly 70 pitches and I have nothing more to add. What about his name? What, Nelson? No, the other one! Ahhhh, right. I don’t trust people with two first names. NICK. What? UGGGGGH.
Eduardo Rodriguez (DET) vs CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.
We appreciate you, Erod. You’re never going to be in the Top 20 starters, but flirting with being a Holly all year is a lovely thing. Just get that heater back up to 94 mph for us, okay?
Bailey Ober (MIN) @ COL (ND) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 22 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches.
That’s a Gallows Pole for Ober as the Rockies whiffed fourteen times on upstairs four-seamers. Fourteen! Pretty wild to see and I wouldn’t look at this start as “oh snap! Ober figured it out!” It’s a Blame it on the Rockies, really, even inside Coors. Regardless, this is awesome. We appreciate you, Ober.
Zack Greinke (KC) vs NYY (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 70 pitches.
Ayyyyy, it was awesome watching Greinke do what Greinke does against the Yankees, even touching 92 mph on a sinker. He’s such a character, I’m going to miss him, even if it was an awfully quiet final year.
Dane Dunning (TEX) @ SEA (L) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 54 pitches.
He did what he could on three day’s rest and huge props to his slider returning 50% CSW on 24 thrown. He’s a prime example of a pitcher who I’m sure has won over the hearts of random managers everywhere during one of his stretches, leading to an over-infatuation of his 3.76 ERA. However, he has a good slider and nothing else, while being very prone to not having that slider and being left in the dust. Don’t put yourself through it next year.
José Butto (NYM) vs PHI (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 99 pitches.
It worked! Well, it was a Loss, but that’s a solid start otherwise and the legend of Butto comes to a close. There’s a chance Butto has a rotation spot next season, though the Mets likely will find some help and Butto isn’t the most appealing arm for a full season. It was a solid heater here, but 4/31 CSW on his secondaries is all kind of anxiety inducing. Appreciate the nice run, but it’s unlikely to be a thing next year.
Kyle Nelson (ARI) vs HOU (L) – 0.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 12 pitches.
It was a terrible bullpen effort by the Diamondbacks as they head into the playoffs. I wonder how they are going to make this work after Gallen and Merrill. They won’t. You never know.
JP Sears (OAK) @ LAA (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 65 pitches.
Bleggggh. It was right there for you. The Angels are horrid. You’re throwing a tick harder. The sweeper and change can land in the zone without fear. But nah, it just wasn’t the day, was it. WELP, MAYBE NEXT YEAR.
Drew Smyly (CHC) @ MIL (L) – 0.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 28 pitches.
Smyly, that’s not what we meant when he asked you to outduel Connor Phillips. It was a disappointing year for Smyly after showcasing legit promise in the second half of 2022 and it’s hard to find a strong path forward. It might be time to close the DS.
Hunter Greene (CIN) @ STL (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 101 pitches.
Womp womp. Greene really let down managers down the stretch and it’s going to be tough to nail down where to draft him next year. He’s destined to earn all the strikeouts and can go on one of his patented runs in a flash, but in the end, he seems awfully close to being a Cherry Bomb. I hate drafting those.
Michael King (NYY) @ KC (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 71 pitches.
I wonder if this will douse King’s hype over the winter. I wouldn’t worry about the 1.5 tick velocity drop on the sinker, and he got a bit Singled Out here, even if he didn’t execute as well as we’ve seen in the past.
Dylan Dodd (ATL) vs WSH (ND) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 89 pitches.
Come on Dodd, just one strikeout? HAISTBMBWT?! I’m still sad he was never able to replicate the fun he had in spring training, though he was sporting a new slider here with a ton more loopiness to it….that went 1/15 whiffs. I can’t imagine Atlanta letting him start out of the gate next year.
Jacob Lopez (TB) @ TOR (W) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 88 pitches.
He scored a Win after the Parsons project went horribly south, but hot dang did his effort not deserve the win, with 90/91 mph sinkers and mediocre sliders & changeups from the left side. Let’s move on.
Lucas Giolito (CLE) @ DET (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 106 pitches.
Ugggggh. What a terrible second half for Giolito, especially one on the verge of free agency. I can’t help but still believe in his skills and would be interested grabbing him if he falls far enough in drafts next year, especially if he lands with a team known for their pitching development. There’s a lot more upside left in that arm.
Jackson Rutledge (WSH) @ ATL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 92 pitches.
It was a longshot and ultimately, Atlanta is still Atlanta. About half a foot away from tying the Twins for most HRs in a season, which is absolutely bonkers when you recall the top-four home run seasons are all in 2019 with the bouncy ball. Absurd.
Wes Parsons (TOR) vs TB (L) – 4.0 IP, 9 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 89 pitches.
The gap between Parsons and Gausman is massive. Yeeeeeesh. Let’s not dawdle. But that’s it. That’s the last one. Then why are you still here? Go on, get out of here. But I’ll miss these. I’ll be back, don’t you worry. We’ll do it all again, I promise.
Game of the Day
Watching me create the Top 200 Starting Pitchers For 2024 – The season is over and the epilogue is me crafting my Way-Too-Early Top 200 SP for 2024 all day on Monday. Come tune in at playback.tv/pitcherlist starting at 11am ET.
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
Nick thanks for all the work you do throughout the year, you’ve gotta be the one of the hardest workers in the industry. Already excited for the first list of 2024!
I think I read every SP roundup, just like last season. Thanks Nick.
I watched King’s start vs. the Royals on Sunday, and if I understand your use of the term “Singled Out” correctly, I can assure you it most definitely doesn’t apply to that start by King.
Yes, he gave up 8 hits in four innings, but three of the hits were solo homers (Melendez, Olivereas and Blanco), accounting for 3 of the 4 runs King gave up. and all three would have been HRs in all 30 MLB Parks (according to Statcast, anyway). His average exit velocity was over 92 and he had just 5 whiffs in 71 pitches. The CSW was 27%. His BABIP at .333 was a smidge high, but he’d had higher BABIPs in one or two other starts, and his hard hit rate was 61%, the 2nd highest in any of his starts this season.
In his prior start against the Jays on 9/26, he had 9 whiffs on 98 pitches, and the avg ev was just under 85. The CSW was 34%.
In the start against the Jays before that one, one 9/20, he had 16 whiffs on 101 pitches, the average EV was under 82, and his CSW was 39%, though both King and Jays’ starter Gausman were very much aided by Barrett’s ridiculously oversized K zone.
I don’t wish to overemphasize this: but King was way off his best this past Sunday. Maybe it was because neither he nor the Yanks had anything left to play for, having clinched a winning season the day before, but he looked like a far lesser pitcher than he did the 4-5 starts before, and against a relatively weak offense, in a pitcher’s park to boot.
Does it worry me for next season? Maybe not, but it was unsettling to see the Royals hit him that hard after he stymied the Jays in successive starts with significantly different pitching patterns.
I won because of your research…..thank you.