Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) @ KCR (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 89 pitches.
The Orioles pitching staff didn’t get the gains we expected entering 2025, with one of the quieter moves acquiring Tomoyuki Sugano in hopes he could be a stable SP 4/5 throughout the year. His second start gave us a glimpse of that Toby for fantasy squads via 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 89 pitches (W) against the Royals, but is it real?
Ehhhh, not entirely. This is a streaming arm for a Win who you shouldn’t rely on for weeks at a time. The splitter was better this time around against LHB with sweepers and cutters away to RHB, and I dig his reluctance to favor fastballs, as he surprised four-seamers up-and-in to LHB and tried to go sinkers inside to LHB. It requires feel and precision across the majority of his arsenal to execute and even then, Koufax has to be in a good mood. At the very least, Sugano is an arm to test against weaker squads but don’t get too comfortable.
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Chris Bassitt (TOR) @ NYM (ND) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 92 pitches.
THERE HE IS. A King Cole for Bassitt as he commanded his secondaries far better this time around. Well, save for the high cutter to LHB, but overall, we dig this. He’s better than last year, y’all, and there could be a Holly hidden.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs SDP (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 85 pitches.
The changeup was spotted lower this time around, though the slider is still lagging behind. His heaters were on point upstairs for outs, fortunately, and he got away with a bit here to create such a stellar line, but he put himself in a position to get fortunate. Sadly the Dodgers are next and we avoid that one. Hopefully the slider looks better to make us confident after that.
Cal Quantrill (MIA) @ ATL (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 66 pitches.
Alright Cal, what are you doing…you’re going four-seamers over sinkers and said pitch is awfully pedestrian, your splitter held a 42% strike rate and the curve + cutter are all kinds of meh. And it worked. No thanks.
Robbie Ray (SFG) vs SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
Hmmmm. The changeup isn’t doing the work I wanted it to do in the preseason and the curve + slider went 1/23 whiffs – the latter going just 2/10 strikes. That’s not the Ray we know and love. I’m glad it still worked as his heater powered him to the finish line and I have to believe the slider (at the very least) will step up.
Mitchell Parker (WSN) vs ARI (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 82 pitches.
Parker is one of those pitchers who bores you while you watch him with plenty of blegh pitches and walks and somehow squeezes outs with the right pitch here and there. At least there’s a streaming chance ahead with the Marlins, and yet, I can’t tell you that’s a clear stream. Then again, the four-seamer is up to 19″ of vert…Ugh, I guess we’re streaming that. FINE.
Griffin Canning (NYM) vs TOR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 89 pitches.
This is more of the Canning I’d expect. Hints of promise without quite enough for you to feel cool with it. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze for 12-teamers.
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs HOU (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 84 pitches.
The fastball sat just under 91 mph (only a tick down now!) and he elevated the offering far better than last time out, while the slider and changeup fell under well. He faced only RHB, though, which lowers the ceiling from his changeup against LHB and he had to fight a bit more than usual to get his outs. I know we wanted more innings, but we’re all good here. Ober is getting his footing and looks good moving forward.
Roki Sasaki (LAD) @ PHI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 68 pitches.
Just 68 pitches for Sasaki and still fastball/splitter with a sub 50% strike rate on the famous splitty. I don’t think I’ll be a fan until he finds a reliable third pitch (anything!) to bridge the two, especially with his volume in question.
Reese Olson (DET) vs CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 94 pitches.
It’s close to a VVPQS as the changeup and slider allowed far more damage than expected. The sinker did its work even at a low strike rate and I’m thrilled to see the four-seamer usage drop down to 23% against LHB. We’re moving forward against the Twins.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) vs CLE (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 79 pitches.
48% sinkers for the Jack of More Than One Trade (I miss his nickname) and the four-seamer + slider pairing is looking decent enough Not specatacular n all, but they help, especially when facing a near-exclusive LHB lineup – you know, the type of batter that performs far better against sinkers.
JP Sears (ATH) @ COL (W) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
You know, a slightly better PQS in Coors from Sears is not taken for granted. And hey! A Win! Something is far better than the nothing we expected.
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs LAD (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 97 pitches.
It’s a terrible line in your standard leagues, but a PQS against the Dodgers isn’t the worst thing ever. At least the changeup command is rocking against LHB…though the heaters are roughly two ticks down and that’s a bit concerning. He gets the Cardinals next and you’ve already forgotten about this one.
Germán Márquez (COL) vs ATH (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 6 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 89 pitches.
Six walks and eleven baserunners in five frames but just three earned runs? COL story, bro.
Brady Singer (CIN) @ MIL (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 91 pitches.
Soooo that’s old Singer and to see him move away from the four-seamer and fail to spot it, while the changeup disappeared and 29% strikes on the cutter = THE SAME GUY. That’s not fun. Did you just pull a bait and switch on me Singer?
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) vs MIA (L) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 82 pitches.
Soooo AJSS is a splitter-first guy? 42% splitters for 74% strikes, backed by four-seamers that he can’t quite locate and inconsistent breaking balls isn’t a recipe for reliable production, sadly. If he’s able to lead with the heater and slider and go toward the splitter, then I think there’s something here, but the whole approach doesn’t gel as is. I hope we get more experimentation in the future, otherwise I don’t see how this works for 12-teamers.
Nick Pivetta (SDP) @ CHC (L) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 76 pitches.
Yikes. Everything got banged up here, but the curve was terrible to RHB and the rare cutters he threw to both LHB and RHB were…meh. He’s getting a ton more cut-action on the four-seamer this year, though, and I wonder if that’s a conscious effort. It would help him against LHB but may hurt a little more against RHB. Hmmm.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs TBR (ND) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 82 pitches.
Whoa whoa whoa, a Philly and three strikeouts?! deGrom nearly made it through six until a two-run shot in the sixth on a 3-2 97 mph heater up-and-away, another baserunner, and the hook. I’m not concerned and whatareyagonnado.
Michael Wacha (KCR) vs BAL (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
The line is rough, but Wacha didn’t pitch too far out of his norm. Maybe fewer changeups than usual and a larger emphasis on the cutter (42% CSW!) and sometimes, it doesn’t go well. We’re still on this one.
Bryce Miller (SEA) @ SFG (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 93 pitches.
That’s two starts of meh in good situations for Miller. The four-seamer returned in full but earned just 12% CSW while he experimented with sweepers and curves to RHB without a whole lot to show for it. He’s working on things and I’m happy to see it, though the four-seamer isn’t pushing up its sleeves when he needs it like last year. I’m sure it’ll come together soon. Also, gotta love the depth he’s getting on that sweeper with legit two-plane movement. Fun stuff.
Taj Bradley (TBR) @ TEX (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 82 pitches.
Remember that praise I had for Bradley’s cutter precision? Yeah, not today. Sure, he had a rough first frame and went four scoreless after, but this was the poor version of Bradley I didn’t want to see. HIPSTER it is, eh?
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) @ WSN (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 90 pitches.
Twelve strikeouts?! Really?! The changeup was deftly spotted to right-handers, sure, but 43% CSW on his 92/93 mph four-seamer is bonkers. He’s not the strikeout king of old, this was a glorious day on the pitch that cannot be trusted. I’m not saying it’s a terrible play against Milwaukee, just one that’ll come with under a strikeout per inning in all likelihood.
Marcus Stroman (NYY) @ PIT (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 74 pitches.
You really wanted to be a starter, eh Marcus? Imagine if the Yankees didn’t have Stroman, Carrasco, Warren at the end of their staff…
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) @ MIN (L) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 70 pitches.
Blegh. The four-seamer did its best to compensate for all of The Pasta Pirate’s secondaries abandoning him. Just one of those days, and it could happen more regularly than you’d like. Please don’t be a HIPSTER…
Davis Martin (CHW) @ DET (L) – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 88 pitches.
Womp womp. The kick change wasn’t working and the slider + cutter + curve returned just 1/30 whiffs. You can truly do better than Davis, who doesn’t have that high of a ceiling to begin with.
Elvin Rodríguez (MIL) vs CIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 76 pitches.
You know this isn’t it, even at 19″ of vert on the four-seamer. Nothing to support it + 94 mph = 1/36 whiffs. No thanks.
Bailey Falter (PIT) vs NYY (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 88 pitches.
The Yankees, yo. He wouldn’t face them as often if he were traded to Tampa Bay. Uhhhh, yes he would. WELL IT SHOULD HAPPEN ANYWAY.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) @ LAA (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 89 pitches.
It’s always strange to see the Gallows Pole winner feature the most ER in a day, but here we are. You can thank four HRs for all seven runs, mostly on missed pitches over the plate. Bibee hasn’t found his groove quite yet and I wouldn’t do anything rash. This will get better, especially with the whiff and CSW numbers still in his favor.
Game of the Day
Bryan Woo vs. Jordan Hicks – I know, Dollander is making his debut as well, but this is the actual fun game to watch.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
