Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup: Pep in Your Two-Step

Nick Pollack reviews every starting pitcher performance from Monday.

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Ryan Pepiot (TBR) vs BAL (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 93 pitches.

I get that Ryan Pepiot just had a poor ratios night against the Baltimore Orioles, but listen. He’s ace material. The overall line was 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 93 pitches, with a pair of solo shots coming on the first pitch of the game + a poor slider a few innings later, and his final two runs coming on a 3-2 changeup pulled just inside the line for two more.

And I don’t care…? Pepiot looked dominant. His changeup was confounding constantly, his four-seamer obliterated batters at the top of the zone, and even featured a few filthy curves to keep batters honest. His foundation of four-seamer/change is here to stay, while I fully trust Pepiot to harness the slider and cutter better over time.

There is a touch of polish left to add to the overall command, but I implore you. Sit down and watch the guy cook, especially with the home Tampa Bay camera angle. His stuff puts batters on their heels and he’s only going to get better. Hold no reservations about starting him in his second outing of the week against Atlanta. He’s the real deal.


Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:


Corbin Burnes (BAL) @ TBR (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. His ratios are phenomenal, but he still can’t seem to unlock his strikeout ability of old. I blame the cutter’s lack of precision relative to yesteryear, but hot dang, that curve and slider were magnetized to the down-and-armside corner and it was lovely to watch. Be happy with this.

Chris Paddack (MIN) vs COL (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.

Yesssss. Paddack came through in his first of two great matchups this week, here pumping two ticks harder than usual. We’re talking 95 mph heaters and 97.6 mph max, spotting fastballs up-and-gloveside while he got plenty of strikes with his curveball armside. I’d normally try to do the opposite sides of the plate, but the man was consistent and pumping ched. You don’t disrupt a man like that. Now he gets Oakland and if we see this fella with similar velocity and a focus on breakers over changeups, you’re dang right if you’re expecting me to stream him.

Erick Fedde (CHW) @ SEA (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches.

Solid work, Fedde. Changeups were well spotted, sweepers were chased out of the zone, and cutters + sinkers earned strikes. It wasn’t electric, but sometimes all you need is that dim light to feel cozy. When would that be? When you face the Mariners, of course. Of course.

Carlos Rodón (NYY) @ KCR (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 103 pitches.

You can blame the slider for the lack of strikeouts here as it went 3/25 whiffs and wasn’t spotted as well as we normally see. I’d also point to 27 curves + changeups combined, which barely squeaked over 50% strikes between them, for just an 11% SwStr rate in total. At least he’s trying to find a proper third offering, but there’s still work to be done here. At any rate, he sat 96 mph on his heater (DOPE) and with the heater working well, seven innings of production followed. All good here.

Colin Rea (MIL) vs TOR (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 85 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! That’s a Gold Star for Rea, who didn’t do a whole lot more than “Here’s a cutter and sweeper, see what you can do.” For all the rolling of the eyes we get watching stud pitchers get burned by the sole mistake pitch they throw, there’s a boatload of nights like these where pitches frolic over the plate, as if protected by Koufax himself. That’s Baseball, Suzyn.

Dakota Hudson (COL) @ MIN (L) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 75 pitches.

Look, you can walk everybody you see, or you can put the ball over the plate and force the guy to do something about it. That’s a HAISTBMBWT?! but you were smart. You ate beforehand. Nah, I just brought a pocket dog. THE POINT IS he gave you what you were looking for – low ratios. Thank your good fortune with the BABIP lords above.

Kyle Harrison (SFG) vs HOU (ND) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 77 pitches.

Ayyyy, he came through for a start! So many wasted pitches along the way, but generally effective curves and four-seamers for strikes as the Astros obliged and hit into plenty of outs. Does this make him worthwhile for a start against the Angels up next? Ehhh, I’d prefer not to, but you can do worse and I’ll probably list him in the Questionable Start tier. It’s not an overpowering arsenal and he’s so unreliable.

Dylan Cease (SDP) vs OAK (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 104 pitches.

A solo shot on a heater + five hung breakers were the major annoyances of this one, but the rest is standard Cease. Imagine how filthy he’d be if he could actually spot all of his pitches with ease. What a sweet world that would be.

Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) @ SFG (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 99 pitches.

It’s not the prettiest of outings, but we’ll take it. The Pasta Pirate is giving me a touch of concern with his inability to spot his four-seamer, but the curve, cutter, and sweeper each showed promise here, returning 11/50 whiffs between them (22% SwStr rate!). Now if you can just do better than a 58% strike rate on the heater, that would be just swell. Do we hold? Absolutely. Arrighetti has a gorgeous schedule that only we weird people dream of, containing all the greatest hits of poor lineups. Hold the fella for the decent floor and Win chances, while hoping the command comes together for much more than a Toby along the way.

Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs CHW (ND) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 95 pitches.

Oh snap. That’s a Golden Goal for Gilbert as he kinda went BSB with low curves and sliders + Canibal McSanchez cutters up top. He was cruising through five frames, too, until a two-run shot from Luis Robert Jr. on a well-spotted, high-and-tight heater broke the dam. Feel confident in Gilbert, who has one final test to get his AGA label back.

José Berríos (TOR) @ MIL (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 105 pitches.

That’s a Philly and one out away from satisfying a whole slew of managers. His curve let him down for just 44% strikes, but hot dang the changeup was legit as it found the bottom of the zone perfectly on demand for a 70% strike rate. I truly hope that changeup sticks around and Berríos can pair it with a better curve moving forward – he’d be kinda legit with both of those weapons in his back pocket.

Joey Estes (OAK) @ SDP (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 96 pitches.

Too many hittable pitches, Estes. THERE’S TOO MANY OF THEM. Maybe he can get better pitch separation against the Twins and provide some value. Probably best to try something else.

Seth Lugo (KCR) vs NYY (L) – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 101 pitches.

That’s two poor ratio starts in a row. This was the Yankees. The other was a Careful, Icarus. I’m not the one who you think would be defending Lugo n all as I doubt he’ll be fantastic throughout the full year, but to jump off the train after this start and his last one are just looking for reasons to run away. Don’t give in to fear. Fear is the mind-killer.


Game of the Day 

Drew Thorpe vs. Bryan Woo – It’s Thorpe’s MLB debut and we get more Woo in our lives. Awwwww yeah.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.

Photo courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

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