Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Adrian Houser (CHW) @ COL (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
I wanted to give some appreciation to Adrian Houser today, who gave us 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches (W) in Coors on Friday. If you blinked (182) and missed it, Houser now has a 1.90 ERA and 1.17 WHIP on the year. Excuse me. Oh, I’m sorry, that was before this game. Now it’s a 1.60 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. SAY WHAT. Let me explain.
Houser is really good at limiting hard contact this year, thanks to a bump in his velocity to 94+ mph and about seven feet of extension that amplify a sinker with 18″ of run. It doesn’t lead to strikeouts (19% clip) but it has pulled his hits-per-nine down to just a touch over 7.0 – the clear hero of Houser’s career. Why, that’s Gaston! Okay, not that hero.
That’s pretty much it. I’m not joking. That sinker has been a terror for RHB with some curveballs appearing here there for some whiffs, while the biggest question mark is LHB, which he generally deals with by being picky around the zone. Here, he went BSB with high sinkers and low changeups + curves, which did its best here and still allowed a trio of hits.
He’s in a groove right now, going at least six frames in all but one start this year and returning 3 ER or fewer in all of them. If you’re in a quality start league, you may want to consider this, but in your 12-teamers, I’m sad to report he’s a risky play. Sure, he’s 4-2 and it’s gone so well thus far, but his 85% LOB rate isn’t sustainable and we know Koufax is destined to shine his light somewhere else soon. Feel free to Vargas Rule this as he’s ultimately a streamer I don’t trust against the Jays up next.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. This was it, y’all. The game that Woo embraced breakers and dominated. No, it wasn’t against RHB, but like Wheeler, he doesn’t need help there with four-seamers and sinkers making easy work of batters, even in this game where he didn’t locate them at his best. Nay, this was 40% breakers to LHB, where the slider and sweeper were fantastic. He spotted them low exclusively – some backdoor, mostly down-and-in – and returned a 25% SwStr rate and 42% CSW across 24 thrown between them. He’s beginning to believe. Merged with 100th percentile HAVAA on the four-seamer, he’s an absolute stud if this keeps up.
JP Sears (ATH) vs SFG (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 92 pitches.
This was a day of not giving in with heaters upstairs, leading to 7/42 whiffs with a low 52% strike rate, then allowing the slider, sweeper, and changeup to do the rest inside the zone. Can’t say I love it and this had Blame it on the Giants energy, which has me leaning away from Atlanta up next. Koufax helped a little here, too.
Lucas Giolito (BOS) @ WSN (W) – 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 108 pitches.
I’m a little surprised to see just 2/24 whiffs on his changeup while facing so many LHB and he was fortunate to not have the demons of Careful, Icarus get to him after leaving the game with two runners on. It’s interesting to see his slider fall down to 87 mph (not 88/89 mph), though his feel for it is far better than what we saw in his opening outings with a 35% CSW and 77% strike rate with a low NC Rate of 8%. He gets Rockie Road next and we keep this rolling, though the second half may be a proper test if he can locate his full arsenal well with the Sawx facing the Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, and Twins. He may miss Los Angeles, but the other offenses aren’t fun matchups.
Colin Rea (CHC) vs STL (W) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 97 pitches.
I haven’t given Rea the Zep lately (a whole lot of love) but he deserves it today with some legit command across his pitches, letting his elite defense to do the rest. Sadly, it’s the Minnesota next and while I’m happy we could commit a Cardinal Sin, I wouldn’t double up with the Twins.
Zack Littell (TBR) @ MIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 83 pitches.
This Vargas Rule barrels forward without a care in the world. Props to Littell for saving the 92 mph four-seamer for two-strikes often and keeping it generally upstairs, while executing just enough sliders and splitters to churn outs + the occasional sinker to steal strikes…save for one he wants back to Bader for a solo shot. I guess you have to start him until this breaks down, right? Dems the rules.
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) @ LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches.
Wow. There’s your Gold Star with McCullers showcasing his HIPSTER tendencies, where it doesn’t matter what he did last start or who he’s facing – if McCullers can earn enough strikes, he’ll be okay. And I mean Okay as it is a bit of a Dusty Donut given the dub and ERA but just four strikeouts and a 1.33 WHIP. The Dodgers really couldn’t handle his slider in this one at all.
Reese Olson (DET) @ CLE (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 89 pitches.
He’s back in action! And already at 90 pitches! This was a game of LHB, which meant heavy changeup usage over sliders, and he unfortunately didn’t have his best slowball, missing too far under the zone often. The slider was great when it appeared (53% CSW! 6/15 whiffs!) and he got away with most of the four-seamers he threw (stupid JoRam in the first hit one over the wall), though for me to get excited about Olson, I need that changeup doing more work in the future. I don’t like watching him rely heavily on fastballs, especially his four-seamer. It’s a super average heater and very susceptible to damage.
Slade Cecconi (CLE) vs DET (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 105 pitches.
He can’t keep getting away with it! Is the slider really that good? A 36% CSW with an absurd 84% strike rate put Slade on its back (Dancing With The Disco!), and I’m not impressed by anything else Slade has to offer. His attack to LHB is tough to watch (two solo shots) and I don’t care what the Slade Brigade says, I ain’t buying this. At least the slider can do most of the work against the RHB-heavy Astros next? Maybe that’s enough to jump on for a Vargas Rule…
Randy Vásquez (SDP) vs TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 93 pitches.
Randy did a fantastic job against RHB with cutter/sinker on opposite sides of the plate and avoiding the middle, but as you can see, it’s not that great with just one whiff on all pitches thrown…which was a surprise four-seamer upstairs for his sole strikeout (HAISTBMBWT?!). These low strikeout, Koufax acolytes are not sustainable and let me tell you, watching his at-bats against LHB was a journey. 13% CSW with a 16% NC Rate on 55 pitches is an atrocity. Blame it on the Rangers I guess?
Eric Lauer (TOR) vs LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
So this was cool. Lauer went BSB with four-seamers and sliders to RHB, mixing in high cutters for Canibal McSanchez and even going low on some fastballs to add some confusion. The Angels were clearly zoned in on the heater – 19/49 foul balls only happens when batters are focused on it – which led to the slider and cutter feasting. We’ve seen other pitchers have massive foul ball rates on their heaters during games, but only Lauer here was able to take advantage of it by throwing two secondaries off it. That’s how it’s done, kiddos. I can’t get too excited about this given A) He’s better against RHB and B) Those foul balls can often turn into hits when keyed in on a heater with poor Fan4+ metrics.
Kumar Rocker (TEX) @ SDP (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 84 pitches.
The cutter is still alive and well at 40% usage. It’s just about the rest of the arsenal and we’re in an interesting place. Rocker is favoring sinkers over four-seamers (good call!) and spotting them well to both RHB and LHB, while the four-seamer has proper intent upstairs as a surprise whiff pitch – 2/11 whiffs here. There isn’t much in the secondary department, though. The changeup looked decent to LHB generally down-and-away to LHB, but it was a change that mimicked the 95/96 mph sinker at 90 mph, which doesn’t do quite enough to be a strong mix-up pitch. He also featured six curveballs on the day, with a 67% NC Rate. Is that bad. Uhhhh, four of his six were auto-balls. Ah. Rocker’s success leans on his cutter/sinker feel at this point and while it was great here, I’m not ready to tell you it will be there more often than not. He’ll get the Angels up next, which should play into his main two pitches well.
Charlie Morton (BAL) @ ATL (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 97 pitches.
Elbow tendonitis Schelbow Schmedonitis, amirite? Seriously though, I’m shocked Morton had his legit curveball in this one and it allowed him to earn six whiffs on his 95 mph four-seamer. I guess he’s back on the menu…? It is the Mets, though. My gut says to avoid the bait (how will his elbow recover after this?).
Chris Paddack (MIN) vs TBR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 87 pitches.
We’re at 94 mph high-heaters consistently, a BSB to LHB, and sliders + curves filling the zone to RHB. Yes, this is the Paddack we want to see, even if the changeup wasn’t on point (1/17 whiffs). The slider is working, y’all.
Kris Bubic (KCR) @ ARI (W) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 98 pitches.
He had some trouble in the first, then settled down to earn a King Cole and Dusty Donut. Yeah, not the best ratios you’ve seen, but he wasn’t chaotic like the three walks suggest. Seeing 0/38 whiffs on his four-seamer is absolutely shocking, though, based on fewer heaters than usual sitting at the very top of the zone. Please send thanks to the changeup and sweeper for getting him through this one.
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs BAL (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 100 pitches.
Well this is awkward. Yes, a Gallows Pole is obviously good. But that’s the slider destroying batters and having ideal command. We’re talking 14/48 whiffs and the reason for success, because it’s not the heater. Okay fine, the heater is still productive and I’m being too harsh on it, but I can’t be the only one scared to see Strider at a worse HAVAA (generally average now vs. 1.3+ previously) and around 15″ of vert instead of 17″? That just doesn’t seem like a heater that can survive over the plate these days, leading this to coming closer to breaking the Huascar Rule than I’d like. I’m still in sell mode for Strider and very much hope to be wrong.
Antonio Senzatela (COL) vs CHW (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 95 pitches.
Senz-A gave it his best against a poor lineup and it still wasn’t enough for a dub. Stupid Adrian bringing down the Houser.
Bailey Falter (PIT) @ SEA (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 75 pitches.
Koufax is a lovely fella, with just one hit in play before a HR + a solo shot causing all the damage. I can’t help with the boomstick. I know, Sandy, I know. Falter went 67% four-seamer here and still can’t find that pitch to complement it. Maybe the Rays can figure him out. Sandy, please. I’m working on it.
Kyle Hendricks (LAA) @ TOR (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 82 pitches.
Wow, that’s kinda the best you could hope for from Hendricks, let alone a Careful, Icarus with all three runs coming in the sixth (and two inherited runs!). Soooo don’t trust him? Obviously.
Marcus Stroman (NYY) @ NYM (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 81 pitches.
He squeezed out everything he possibly could in this one – 19 sinkers exclusively down + a sprinkle of curves and cutters to RHB, incessantly curves and splitters low with sinkers and cutters hanging around to LHB – and this was the result. He had a chance for a Win, it didn’t work out, and you’re left with a whole lot of nothing. Please don’t.
Quinn Priester (MIL) @ MIA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 83 pitches.
Two longballs made up three of these runs as the slider wasn’t the destroyer of worlds he needed it to be. It was still good, but it has to carry the bulk of the work as his cutter and sinker are simply too hittable. The curveball didn’t show up as it did last start, either, but at least Priester has the Nats and @TEA up next. I actually kinda hate the Nats start since his slider works best against RHB, though he could be alright against the Mariners. That’s not much of an endorsement. Have I ever given a strong one to Priester?
Justin Hagenman (NYM) vs NYY (ND) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 73 pitches.
Wow Hagenman, if you lasted two more outs and held that CSW, you would have earned the King Cole. The cutter and changeup looked great here, outside of one cutter for a HR, and his sinker was…terrible. I’m generally apprehensive to trust young arms without a good fastball and that makes Hagenman an arm to avoid. I hate seeing more vert (14.7″) than run (13.8″) on a sinker, and I’m not ready to trust a cutter/change focus.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) @ PHI (ND) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 66 pitches.
Is this the regression hitting at once? Sure, it could be. It could also just be a day that they tagged him on mistakes pitches he’s gotten away with previously. The idea that Abbott isn’t allowed to have off days is kinda wild, but I also grasp that it may be the end of his ridiculous run and a downturn for the second half – a regression we’ve all expected. For now, we can’t believe he’s already there, so we plod forward and expect a strong recovery against the Marlins.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 96 pitches.
You know the drill. Is the changeup back? Nope. 50% strikes and 2/20 whiffs. Are the fastballs jamming RHB? He threw four total fastballs on the inner third and off the plate to RHB. Oh no. Yup. At least he still has his 97+ mph velocity, but he’s still not it. Sigh.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs CIN (L) – 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 60 pitches.
Two things. One, Luzardo allowed a run in the second that should have been an inning-ending double play, but the catcher’s throw hit a runner and a run scored. He was in a bases-loaded jam in the first place due to two walks with some poor pitches and a squeaked single through the hole, sure, but he got out of it. Two, that third inning was tough to watch. It was a product of Luzardo suddenly losing all feel for his slider and sweeper, bouncing so many to RHB that they began hunting heaters and the changeups he did throw to nullify were easily hit. Pretty wild to see that frame after looking dominant with three strikeouts in a row after a lazy fly to the first batter of the game. Sometimes you just lose a pitch and everything cascades from there. Yes, I’m buying low here – Luzardo won’t have a sub 30% strike rate on breakers in the future.
Ben Casparius (LAD) vs HOU (L) – 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 59 pitches.
Hooooo boy. This was hard to endure as the Astros took what was given to them and punished Casper for a trio of longballs + little help from Koufax, though 11/15 ICR was kinda deserved. How can you say that?! I know, but I watched this game with sequencing in my mind and here is what happened: Most Astros hitters were sitting heater and Casper’s fastball was meatball city too many times that the Astros obliterated. He also made sequencing errors that exposed what was coming, like the curve to Altuve for a longball, and the 1-1 fastball to Walker that was so silly. Walker just swung and whiffed big on a curveball that landed down in the zone, which outlines how much he was selling out for a heater in the upper half. So at 1-1, Casper gave him a heater in the upper half. The cutter wasn’t used enough and needed to be located down, the new curve was actually pretty cool, all things, considered, and hot dang does that fastball need to take a larger backseat at times. This was a fantastic approach from the Astros and also Casparius is not this terrible. He may be for a moment as he figures out how to utilize his arsenal better, but that’s more of an intent question and less of a stuff/ability question. I like him in the future, but obviously we give it some time right now.
Justin Verlander (SFG) @ ATH (L) – 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 60 pitches.
Oh jeez. This was a whole lot of chaos as Verlander couldn’t get settled in. We didn’t expect this one to work, but the schedule isn’t getting easier with the Phils, Jays, and Mets on the docket. Let’s skip this until he forces us back in, yeah? The four-seamer/slider combo is in the freezer, y’all. IT AIN’T COOKIN.
Michael Soroka (WSN) vs BOS (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 93 pitches.
This was looking okay after four frames, but then it came crashing down in the fifth, with five runners getting on before three scored + two more inherited after getting the hook. Womp womp. The hook is still great, but he made some poor pitches in the fifth and got demolished. That’s Baseball, Suzyn. I’m still down to start him against the Cardinals as a Questionable Streamer. The curve is there.
Miles Mikolas (STL) @ CHC (L) – 6.0 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 103 pitches.
You don’t need me, y’all. Or I least I hope you don’t…
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs KCR (L) – 4.1 IP, 8 ER, 12 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 98 pitches.
He really couldn’t handle Vinnie P (two HRs for 5 RBI) while RHB had him Singled Out. This was a rough one, absolutely, though he’s cooked or donezo or whatever. It’s baseball. The Padres are next and – I know it’s bonkers to even speak it after this – he could very well perform there. The changeup feel is there and he made more mistake pitches with cutters and four-seamers than usual, but also was in the general area more than you’d think.
Game of the Day
Nick Lodolo vs. Ranger Suárez – Two southpaws, one performing at the most consistent level of his career, the other looking like an ace. Sounds fun.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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