Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Sunday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) @ TBR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches.
You waited a long time to get Merrill Kelly back on your squads and 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches against the Rays makes you question your choices.
The biggest worry is his velocity drop down to 90 mph (not the 92/93 mph of old), and it could be a sign that he’s not fully recovered. He also failed to earn whiffs on his four-seamer and changeup, both of which were not the leaders of his approach as we’ve seen in the past. It’s a bit scary.
He’s a kitchen-sink arm with above-average command and even if the whiffs aren’t around like 2023, Kelly should be a Toby as his floor for a winning team – h*ck, the fella had a legit four-pitch inning and not one of those that required ridiculous double plays. That said, it might be wise to bench him for Fenway to ensure the velocity returns and to monitor his heater/changeup as potential strikeout pitches again.
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
Bowden Francis (TOR) @ CHC (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 95 pitches.
Here I am, spouting all kinds of “IT’S A TRAP Y’ALL! DON’T DO IT!” and Bowden doesn’t care, returning at least seven strikeouts in three straight starts. This one was the most dominant of the lot, though, with a true BSB approach Kevin Gausman would appreciate. Four-seamers weren’t impressive on their own ( just under 93 mph, not the greatest shape, though. sub 16″ of iVB, poor HAVAA, and mid extension), but spotted upstairs with his splitter showing up underneath consistently for a whopping 41% CSW. The slider was a bit wonky at 50% strikes, but surprised batters for 36% CSW, and I’d love for that pitch or the curve to take a small step forward to make this a stable three-pitch mix (after all, can we buy a splitter as a #2 pitch?!). This is the most encouraged I’ve been all year about Francis (which obviously means he’ll stumble against the Angels because the world revolves around me), though I can’t shake that the splitter was the catalyst for dominance. Let’s hope that sticks.
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 82 pitches.
The dude is saving his season. It’s pretty awesome to watch and it should not be forgotten among the chaos of the off-season. Just save this tweet for later.
Colin Rea (MIL) vs CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.
Annnnnd we’re back. Dang Dodgers messed everything up and now the command was solid with splitters rarely hitting the zone but still nearing a 60% strike rate, and fastballs hugging the edges. With Oakland next, you might have another solid stream ahead. I know it’s not exciting, but there’s value here as a Toby.
Albert Suárez (BAL) vs BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 99 pitches.
Yesssss. The combo of Suárez and Povich as streamers against the Sawx in Camden came through beautifully, and Suárez earned his oats once again with high heaters returning double-digit whiffs. The change and cutter still need refinement for him to take another leap and with the Astros up next (and Dodgers?), I think I’d send him back to the wire.
Pablo López (MIN) @ TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 107 pitches.
Pablo was a man on a mission with 96/97 mph heaters, spotting them beautifully up-and-armside. Sinkers played off them well, the sweeper was always gloveside (a little too much), curves weren’t hung, and his changeup was…meh. This was a game where his fastballs laid the foundation and he simply didn’t have that single secondary pitch to lean on. Expect them to return and with the velocity + fastball command, you should feel great about this.
Brady Singer (KCR) @ CIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 94 pitches.
Singer has had himself a career year and it’s good to see a return to success after 13 ER across his last three outings. He’s the man he’s always been as a Cherry Bomb, of course, which means you’re on your own with the Phillies and holding past that. I know, you can’t drop Singer now…but can you?
Marcus Stroman (NYY) @ DET (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
This is all you can ask for from Stroman. Maybe you should have also asked the Yankee offense for some runs, too. Wow Nick, so wise.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) @ STL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 70 pitches.
With just two strikeouts, he’s no TATIAGA, but that’s a Win as shiny as any, with sparkling ratios that do everything to convince you he’s returned. The slider is churning outs like a man making butter with forearms of steel (I don’t think I’ll ever write that again). Enjoy the Rays up next.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) vs ARI (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 43% CSW, 21 pitches.
As expected, Rasmussen didn’t go long and was replaced by Tyler Alexander, who spotted cutters effectively enough to go 5.2 IP, 3 ER , 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. This will be the plan for a bit for the Rays, so when you see Drew, peer behind the mask and observe the paltry armed T-Lex twiddling his thumbs…if he could. Because of the short arms.
JP Sears (OAK) vs SFG (ND) – 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 105 pitches.
That’s four straight starts of a 17%+ SwStr on his four-seamer, pushing that mark to a phenomenal 28% clip with 14/50 whiffs. It’s awesome. Has Sears actually made a tweak to keep that four-seamer upstairs? I think you gotta take a stab at this with the Brewers up next, even if the sweeper and changeup leave a little to be desired. But the changeup was armside again! Okay, fair. I’m a little more skeptical of its sustainability, but fair.
Blake Snell (SFG) @ OAK (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 109 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Snell have this kinda of command before. Even last year, it felt more precarious than this, especially as he tried to figure out his breakers. Now? It’s a Golden Goal due to his slider taking a backseat for the best curveball of his career. Enjoy it.
Ky Bush (CHW) @ HOU (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! A Gold Star for Ky as he looked like the best Bush in Texas for a night. His slider was on point and he was able to mix-and-match his fastball and changeup armside effectively…though I don’t think he will get as fortunate in the future as he did here (even if his sole run was a solid breaker inside that got fisted into the Crawfish Crawford boxes). You may be tempted to give this a shot against the Tigers, but will the blessings of Koufax be around for another start?
Tarik Skubal (DET) vs NYY (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 100 pitches.
Aces gonna…have really mediocre command. I’m glad he survived the Yankee crew in an odd environment (Little League Classic!) and we continue to love the guy.
Paul Blackburn (NYM) vs MIA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 92 pitches.
Atta boy Blackburn, I appreciate the way you bounced back like a boomerang off a trampoline. That’s not how they work. If you throw it on a trampoline, will it not bounce back? Yeah bu–THEN IT WORKS. Like Blackburn against poor offenses? Now you get it. The cutter and curve sat down-and-gloveside, the sinker and heater lived on the armside edge, and that’s your ballgame. Avoid the Padres next because duh.
Bradley Blalock (COL) vs SDP (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 87 pitches.
I’m not sure how he made this work, but he made it work. COL story, Bro, you really can’t go after the BB Gun. You’ll shoot your eye out, kid.
Charlie Morton (ATL) @ LAA (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 82 pitches.
The Cherry Bomb came through in a good matchup on a winning team. It’s what you should be all the time and once again, the curve was legit. Can you do it one more time?
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs TOR (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 97 pitches.
That’s some good ole Imanaga…as a line. The splitter took a vacation at just 10% usage, with Shōta electing to feature a changeup (he has that?!) and his sweeper more often. I love seeing Imanaga showcase more than his splitter to complement the heater, and I’ll treat this as a night where Imanaga had other options working, and took advantage to create a new look for future batters to consider.
Joe Musgrove (SDP) @ COL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 73 pitches.
The curve and cutter feel are back, while he spotted four-seamers upstairs when he used them as a surprise pitch. The heater was up to 94 mph instead of 92.5 mph and WE ARE SO BACK. What about the slider? WE ARE SO NEARLY BACK.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) vs ATL (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 85 pitches.
No strikeouts. Ten Baserunners. Against Atlanta. 2 ER. That’s the life of a sinkerballer and you really shouldn’t be shouting HAISTBMBWT?! since this is kinda what you got yourself into. It does mean he has a higher chance than others to find six frames on random nights when Koufax smiles at his heavy 96 mph sinkers. Nice to keep in your backpocket when your back is against the wall. POCKET JACK!
Ben Lively (CLE) @ MIL (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 80 pitches.
Huh. He did his thing again and this time it came through. It was a pair of rough outings (one way off, the other status quo with a far different result) and now you have to wonder, is this real? Up to you, it’s the Rangers next and I don’t love that…but the Rangers are a 93 wRC+ over the last 30 days…but it’s in Cleveland…I DON’T KNOW. Slams stamp down onto the page. QUESTIONABLE START.
George Kirby (SEA) @ PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. It’s not the strikeouts you wanted (slider wasn’t quite as good), but he came through for ya. Thanks Kirbs.
Valente Bellozo (MIA) @ NYM (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 83 pitches.
First of all, I need to apologize for not pronouncing Valente’s name properly. Not Bell-otz-zoh, but Bay-ah-zoh. You deserve better, especially when you’re commanding your arsenal as well as this. That said, this is awfully close to a VPQS without strikeout potential and that’s the game you’re playing if you stream the fella. Wins and strikeouts will be a rare commodity, WHIP may be questionable, but the ERA? That might be your jam, just like the unrelated Belgian techno anthem, Pump Up The Jam.
Sonny Gray (STL) vs LAD (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.
Ehhh, it’s the Dodgers and be happy you only got hurt in the WHIP department. The sweeper and cutter are alive with the sound of music and you should be fine against his former crew in Minnesota next time out.
Kutter Crawford (BOS) @ BAL (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 75 pitches.
Once again, Crawford had it until the sixth inning, forming another Careful, Icarus. Thing is, he allowed a solo shot on a poor 91 mph heater in the fifth, then lost his mechanics to walk his first two batters in the sixth. Earned an out, got pulled, and both runners scored. That’s pretty dumb and makes me feel like Crawford is unlucky instead of bad. Right? But watching him, I didn’t love it. He wrestled with his secondaries all game, with his four-seamer doing most of the work, while those secondaries were able to go 7/7 outs on balls in play. He’ll get the Sneks next and I’m going to lean into it, but I have to wonder if there is a true fatigue element at play with Crawford. Does he have the stamina to keep his mechanics intact after 60+ pitches?
Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs WSN (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 99 pitches.
Nah y’all. Don’t Walker, runner to the wire to replace Taijuan if you have him rostered. He shouldn’t have been there in the first place. He’s 90/91 mph with sinkers, a blegh splitter and fishing for other pitches to make his arsenal work. I miss Turnbull so much.
Jake Irvin (WSN) @ PHI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 100 pitches.
Hmmmmmm. A VPPS for Irvin (Poor, not quality) but it was the Phillies and his four-seamer + curveball command wasn’t bad. Can we treat him like a Cherry Bomb for now who we start against poor offenses? Cool, then skip Atlanta and return to this later.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs KCR (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 83 pitches.
Ah. Abbott’s approach is clear – he’s going BSB and I love that he’s going for it – but the four-seamer didn’t do its job. Heaters were well out of the zone or down the pipe and it set a bad tone for at-bats. Love the low changeups and curves, though, and at least I can follow Abbott’s development properly now instead of the nebulous “Welp, I guess that’s a start” analysis. I haven’t seen Abbott have this unhinged of a heater frequently, though, which makes me encouraged he can come through against the Pirates up next.
Tyler Mahle (TEX) vs MIN (ND) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 61 pitches.
Uhhhhh the heater sat 89.7 mph. That should terrify you. I’m staying away from Mahle until he proves he’s a legit arm – he wasn’t a stud prior to injury, but an arm we were hoping would take the next step to become a stud. He’s a step further back right now and I’d be ultra cautious for the rest of the year. Maybe we take a chance in 2025.
Jake Woodford (PIT) vs SEA (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 91 pitches.
The Amish Mustang wasn’t good on Sunday because that was supposed to be his day of rest. I thought that was Saturday. Me too, but nah, that’s Sunday for Woodford. I’m glad we all skipped this one for such obvious reasons.
Game of the Day
Zebby Matthews vs. Michael King – Zebby is awfully fun and the King has his crown. You should watch this.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Zac BonDurant/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)