Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Chris Flexen (CHW) vs LAA (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches.
It’s the final week of SP Roundups, which means I get to highlight fun moments instead of talking about pick-ups and drops. And what’s more fun than Chris Flexen stepping away from the mirror and driving down to a Chicago beach to show off his GUNS: 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches. The fella showed off this kind of ceiling a few weeks ago and it was lovely to see it one more time on Thursday.
How does he have these moments? First of all, don’t forget one phrase: Everyone is a major leaguer for a reason. For these fringe arms, it’s often because they can skirt by if they have their best command along the edges, but with Flexen, he has a five-pitch mix that can succeed if he’s able to have success across the board. Or not get beat by his super hittable four-seamer at a terrible HAVAA as he’s ultra over-the-top.
It’s a lesson to take to heart at this time of the season when you’re scouring the wire for ways to come back in your league. It’s rare to find a pitcher capable of tossing 96 pitches and don’t ignore it for the weekend. Who knows, maybe that guy we’ve ignored all season is the one who can save your team. Follow the long leashes.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs BAL (W) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 101 pitches.
Aces gonna ace…without his slider at just 1/15 whiffs. What a weird season for Cole, from his forearm injury to figuring out how to succeed without his elite breaker. It makes you wonder if it hurts him arm to throw the slider and the forearm injury may be something that re-appears in March, especially if he’s going deep into October. It didn’t stick around for Wheeler. Very fair. We’ll see.
Aaron Civale (MIL) @ PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 86 pitches.
The cutter was cooking, the curve was meh, and that’s the end of Civale’s season. What’s the lesson learned for those chasing him in the draft? Don’t Draft Tobys. If they are a volume arm without Top 20 SP upside (i.e. 25%+ strikeout rate potential or sub 3.00 ERA/1.10 WHIP), then you’re better off chasing something else and picking up a Toby as needed throughout the year.
Tyler Alexander (TBR) @ DET (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 74 pitches.
The dude showed UP. The Tigers have that motor oil cookin’ right now and returned a late comeback to steal T-Lex’s win, but a King Cole for the sneaky southpaw is lovely for those who took the chance.
Walker Buehler (LAD) vs SDP (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 71 pitches.
HA. I guess we’ll take it…? It’s a Dusty Donut with a 1.20 WHIP and 1.80 ERA with just one strikeout (HAISTBMBWT?!) which means he didn’t burn you, but you didn’t get a whole lot in return. The dude is still lost and it’s maddening I tell ya. MADDENING. Like Joe? Yes, like Joe, sitting in the office while getting fired with a mohawk. I’ll be monitoring Buehler carefully this off-season, wondering if he lands with a club who can mold him into the arm he should be – command-focused with BSB intact.
Corbin Burnes (BAL) @ NYY (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 69 pitches.
Aces gonna ace, earning a Gallows Pole before the floodgates opened in the Bronx. The cutter is so back, y’all. I think I have to put him into the Top 5 SP next year given the pitch’s resurgence.
Valente Bellozo (MIA) @ MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 74 pitches.
Bellozo is only allowed to produce in one-of-four categories and without a dub, just two strikeouts, and a 1.40 WHIP, he followed the law and with a 1.80 ERA. I hope it’s the one you needed.
Joe Musgrove (SDP) @ LAD (ND) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 85 pitches.
Yessss. Way to be Musgrove. Interesting to see 26% four-seamers while the four breakers did their part with ease. He was a man possessed after returning from the IL on August 12th – 2.15 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 29% strikeout rate in 50.1 IP and nine starts. I wonder how people will treat him in drafts next year…
J.T. Ginn (OAK) vs TEX (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 68 pitches.
It’s boring, but he got the job done for Oakland. All of Oakland. I don’t need to spill ink about the tragedy, so let’s celebrate the magical moment Ginn helped create for the city. That was awesome.
Reese Olson (DET) vs TBR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 72 pitches.
Blegh. He wasn’t allowed to go another frame or two with Casey Mize stepping in and keeping it close with Beau Brieske across two frames apiece. Mize’s splitter and slider earned whiffs, though I’m still skeptical they can take the step forward they need to take, while Olson’s change and slider are still looking lovely. I can see him being a decent arm again next year, but not as a major target in 12-teamers. He’ll likely head to Seattle for his first start if he’s SP #4 or SP #5. WELL THEN.
Michael Wacha (KCR) @ WSN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 83 pitches.
Womp womp. This start didn’t help at all, which is awfully disappointing given the run he had been on. You may not have noticed, but Wacha saved him season after a horrendous April, returning a 2.72 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 22% strikeout rate across 22 starts since May 9th. Just ONE game above 3 ER and only three above two. Wow. There’s the Toby I’m talking about picking up a month after your draft.
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs MIL (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.
Blegh. At least he was able to sit 94/95 mph after failing to hit 94 mph on a single pitch last start. You said he was injured! It had all the signs and I’m glad I’m wrong! At the very least, unless you needed those strikeouts, this wasn’t a start you wanted.
Kumar Rocker (TEX) @ OAK (L) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 73 pitches.
Kumar was situated in front of destiny, I should have known better. He’s a legit arm with a 96 mph heater and wicked slider, making him a fun arm to chase next year, but one who could burn you if you hold too long. Jack Leiter also appeared in this and despite a trio of walks and just one strikeout, he was able to finagle 3.1 IP of 0 ER ball. Both of these arms have legit potential, but can also be classified as Cherry Bomb dart throws. It’s gonna be a stressful winter.
David Festa (MIN) vs MIA (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 72 pitches.
Ho boy. Festa hasn’t come through for Minnesota hopefuls and I feel for everyone involved. His trio of pitches – fastball, slider, change – are inherently great, but his execution isn’t consistent enough to cruise through at-bats, preventing him from utilizing them to their fullest. I often quote Kyle Boddy suggesting we throw rookie year command out the window and part of me wants to do that for Festa entering 2025. I hope we’ll be able to trust him soon.
Patrick Corbin (WSN) vs KCR (ND) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 73 pitches.
You couldn’t give us the Daft Punk and do it One More Time, could ya? It was a fun little run for our playoff teams. We appreciate you and hope the harder cutter sticks next year.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) @ CHW (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 82 pitches.
Noooooo. Easily the most disappointing start of the night as Anderson, the southpaw who has cruised all year with his changeup, couldn’t handle the White Sox, the team with the worst record in MLB history. Welp, it’s been an interesting year, Anderson. I’m certainly not going to be aggressive rostering you next year, but if his stock is low enough in 15-teamers, sure, why not. The changeup is good enough to give him a chance each night.
Kyle Freeland (COL) vs STL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 85 pitches.
COL story, bro. He’s signed for a while with Colorado and while I’m happy he got his bag, it’s going to come with a whole lot of pain.
Kyle Gibson (STL) @ COL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 75 pitches.
Womp womp. It was a dire move as he would have a long enough leash and it didn’t work out. Let’s not chase this next year, yeah?
Game of the Day
Jared Jones vs. Carlos Rodón – Can Jones get it together before the season ends? Will Rodón go a full five? It is “Hangover” day…
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)