I released my massive Top 400 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball 2025 at the end of February and an updated version of The List – Top 100 Starting Pitchers last week (which you should absolutely read if you haven’t already!) and decided to leverage that into some smaller articles relating to guys you could target for specific categories or at certain times in your draft. You can find this article, and other similar ones, in our 2025 Draft Kit.
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Below are 5 Starting Pitchers Busts to avoid in 2025 drafts.
1. Chris Sale (ATL, LHP)
I scoured everything. I look at his slider, four-seamer, changeup, noted his locations, count changes, movement, velocity, shifts to RHB/LHB, all of it. There were four differences between 2023 and 2024: health, velocity, LOB% rate, and home runs.
The first is obvious. Sale is notorious for his inability to stay on the field and despite everyone expecting 100 IP or even fewer frames from the lanky southpaw, we saw Sale pitch without interruption until his back barked after his September 19th outing, tallying 177.2 IP in 29 starts. It was incredible, exhilarating, exceptional. We have to accept that this wasn’t typical and to anticipate another full season from Sale would be far too optimistic. That isn’t to say he’s deGrom and we’d be lucky for 120+ frames, but…we may be lucky if we see 120 frames.
To push Sale down the ranks due to injury risk would be unjust. I’m favoring injured arms a bit more than usual this year given the absurd depth of SP this year and considering his roster spot equates to the known quality of Sale when healthy + whoever we scoop up off the wire, I’d accept the ding in volume. There are three other differences to cover, though.
Let’s tackle the “HOTEL” factor – LOB% and home run rate. In some ways, they link – runners on base who score via HR cannot be Left On Base, after all – though I reviewed it all and found the significant shift in HR decline (1.31 HR/9 to a tiny 0.46 HR/9 clip) came from HRs to RHB off his slider – five in 2023’s shorter season vs. one in all of 2024. And yes, there were more off his four-seamer, but the takeaway was that all of these pitches (save for one) were terrible sliders or heaters. Poorly located mistakes that were punished as they should have been. I’m worried that we’ll see more of them again in 2025 as Sale didn’t pitch all that differently last season and this is one of those rare moments where I say “Ehhhh just average the two.” But his fastball velocity increased! Ohhhh yeah. Number four.
Sale’s four-seamer came up from its lazy 93/94 mph to 94/95 mph, which absolutely helps, but is that really the Sale of old? We used to see Sale sit 96/97 mph with his fastball, two ticks above or higher with a greater effect on his secondaries. I’m not convinced that the heater is truly better, especially with the same strike and ICR rates and a 43%+ ICR to both LHB and RHB. And who’s to say the heater will continue to be at the raised 94/95 mph for another season? That is far from a given at age 36 with his track record.
I’m worried about Sale. Everyone understands 2024’s Cy Young campaign was a magical season, and even if I believe Sale will still be productive with his three-pitch mix and very capable of collecting Wins every game he starts, I question his impact across what will likely be a dented workload. There’s an argument to made that even Strider is a better pick (who has a better quality-per-inning this year?), though Sale gets the nod given the known commodity of his health right now. It would take all the pieces coming together perfectly for Sale to get his “HOTEL” upgrade carrying over for another year with a 30% strikeout rate. It simply rarely happens.
Quick Take: Sale’s health history mixed with all the signs of regression make me question Sale’s impact across your fantasy teams. Expect a rise in ERA to the 3s with a WHIP over 1.10 as the HR, LOB%, and hit rates normalize, while we could see a fastball decline that makes the shift dramatically larger. Give me the floor of many others instead.
2. Luis Castillo (SEA, RHP)
I’ll always have a soft spot for Castillo, the man who brought Paul Sporer and I together to create the Fireside Chat podcast back in 2018 (that first half was rough), and I wish the tea leaves were arranged differently at the bottom of my mug. Wait, I thought you believed tea was worse water. SURE IS, this is just for prophetic purposes – the only true reason for tea. WHAT. Ahem, Castillo will be entering his ninth season in the bigs and is having some…issues.
The transition from sinker to four-seamer was bliss in 2023, though the pitch took a step back in 2024 and I’m not confident at 32-years-old that Castillo will reclaim its luster. The heater sat 95/96 mph instead of its classic 97 mph blaze, while his already league-worst extension fell more to 5.4 (two feet less than Gilbert’s), which has taken Castillo’s elite 1.6 HAVAA four-seamer to a 1.3 clip. All elements – lower extension, steeper, and worse velocity – allowed batters to connect more often and bring its SwStr down from 18%+ heights to a mortal 14% clip (and just 10/11% against LHB!).
And it’s not just the four-seamer that is lagging behind. The changeup has been the signature offering for Castillo across his tenure, though it failed to instill fear to LHB despite its consistent 25% usage. A low 60% strike rate merged with a poor 13% SwStr is appalling for such a well-vaunted offering, and it often left Castillo wounded against LHB. Fastballs and sliders had to do more over the plate to compensate, with both getting crushed at a 42%+ ICR with 50% zone rates. It’s a problem.
I do think there’s more to squeeze out of the slider, though. The pitch was beautifully located down against LHB, but failed constantly to put batters away, with a near 10 point drop in Putaway Rate comapred to 2023. We also saw just a 17% Putaway Rate against RHB, which is shocking for a 19% SwStr rate breaker. That could spell more strikeouts from Castillo in 2025 and a potential return to a 25%+ strikeout if everything else were to stand pat.
He’s still one of the rare workhorses in the bigs across a sizeable track record returning 30+ starts in all but one season (max in 2020, 25 in 2022), and assuming Seattle keeps its stadium untouched, he’ll benefit from the best park factor in the majors. There’s always value in an arm who you won’t consider dropping across the season, even if it’s not the darling of old.
Quick take: Castillo will have his moments of frustration and the four-seamer may continue to regress, but he’s a volume arm with promise in his slider, while said heater still dominates RHB. Castillo’s strikeouts could return with slider polish in two-strike counts or a redemption arc for his signature changeup. He’s a safe play for the full year without the tantalizing ceiling of younger flamethrowers.
3. Hunter Brown (HOU, RHP)
Hunter is a weird one and to be honest, I generally don’t like drafting weird. You may remember Hunter’s start to the year being a bit shaky to say the least, with a 5 ER clunker against the Rangers getting off the hook after he imploded for 9 ER and 11 Hits across just two outs in Kansas City the very next week. Managers were put in a tough spot and those who elected to hold Brown were rewarded with riches – a 2.88 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 162.1 IP with a 26% strikeout rate for his next 28 games. I know many hate this approach (you can’t ignore what you don’t like!), but deep down, y’all know it to be true. Be honest.
I remember writing about Brown across the year and not quite making sense of it all. Some starts he’d find a secondary and fall in love with it, others lean into four-seamers only to go sinker-strong the next. It felt like a pitcher trying to figure himself out, experimenting with a deep seven-pitch mix that was really a five-pitch mix, and that’s generous to a changeup reserved for LHB that he shouldn’t throw much at all.
The approach turned into a mini-Wheeler, without the same oh snap that Wheeler brings. Despite the 17″ of “iVB” on the four-seamer, it has expected movement based on Brown’s steep arm angle, making it have deadzone movement. So does the sinker. And the cutter. You can’t be serious. Sure am. It’s awfully frustrating given Brown’s ability to locate the heater upstairs and pair it with the sinker inside to RHB, and while I think Brown’s mix of the two is a reason he’s been able to overcome it (more sinkers than four-seamers to RHB as the year went on), it concerns me moving forward. But the four-seamer had a 15% SwStr to RHB! With a poor ICR and it is sure to be a problem again in the year ahead.
I also question his feel for spin. Brown moved on from the slider to introduce more cutters (deadzone cutter, remember) and he doesn’t have a whiff-friendly secondary offering left. The curve is a big fella that catalyzed 2023’s strikeout rate against both LHB and RHB, but its usage dropped dramatically in 2024, now mainly reserved for LHB to get early called strikes with the occasional punchout.
I’m concerned the high putaway rates on his four-seamer will fall in 2025, bringing Brown to a 22% strikeout rate instead of the 25%+ we’ve seen previously. It feels weird to say that after boasting a 25%+ clip across two full seasons, and I may be undervaluing his deep arsenal, mind for tinkering, and the Astros organization, though the pitches themselves are not nearly as captivating as many other arms entering the year.
Brown is the perfect example of a pitcher I’d like to roster simply because he’s on the Astros and should have volume that doesn’t hurt. However, there are many pitchers that do that and I see Brown as a regression candidate from the 2.88 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 26% strikeout rate (ignore those first three starts, please).
Quick Take: Without a demonstrative legit pitch in his arsenal, I’m skeptical Brown can replicate the stellar 28 game run he displayed after getting bruised by Kansas City. There isn’t a filthy breaker in the mix and his four-seamer + sinker are well spotted but are not elite heaters. It doesn’t add up to another sustainable season of success without growth.
4. Bowden Francis (TOR, RHP)
Okay. I’ve spent a whole lot of time trying to decipher what the h*ck that run was in 2024. Here’s what I’ve got:
Francis shifted from his curveball to sliders against RHB nearly exclusively. He also tossed more splitters to LHB and introduced a sinker (10% of the time) to RHB.
All of that was generally better, but not really the answer. The slider was meh, the splitter was actually kinda good against RHB, and the sinker worked, but generated nine outs in that stretch. Not really the reason.
Nope. I’ve found the actual reason and I’m not entirely sure what to make of it. Francis’ four-seamer was unstoppable. It induced sub 30% ICR marks to both LHB and RHB, leading to stupid low BABIPs that are obviously unsustainable (we’re talking .103 and .109 BABIPs off four-seamers, y’all), but there’s more to it. He changed the four-seamer.
Instead of focusing on vert and velo, he became a 92/93 mph cut fastball pitcher. He located the pitch down-and-inside to LHB, who in turn lofted it into the air 67% of the time for a quarter of flyballs but just eight total hits. Eight! To his other half, Bowden kept the pitch up-and-away and also generated a ton of flyballs with only four hits allowed. That’s absolutely wild to see across nine games, especially when you remember he allowed five hits off his RHB to the Astros in his first game of the season. Oh how far he has come.
Is this something that can carry over into 2025? I’m leaning no. Sure, the extra cut action obviously helps, but it’s unwise to bank on precise command and BABIP working in your favor, especially without secondaries that do a whole lot of work as a backup plan when the four-seamer isn’t in a perfect groove. It was a wonderful run and he’s sure to have more of them. The tough schedule in April is looming and I’d be worried with Francis inside my rotation.
Quick Take: Francis’ made tweaks that surprised batters in the second half and propelled a phenomenal run down the stretch. It’s unlikely he’ll have the same run out of the gate, especially with the tough Jays schedule early in the year, and I’d be cautious about grabbing him in drafts.
5. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI, RHP)
Many people smarter than me adore Pfaadt and want to target him this year. Me? Ehhhhh, I can understand some of the logic, but I’m not fully there as I believe it’s banking on potential development that we know nothing about. But his horrible luck! Yes yes yes, Pfaadt was unlucky last year. His LOB% was an atrocious 64.5% reserved only for our greatest enemies that propelled his 4.71 ERA, but there is some truth to it. Pfaadt’s extreme groundball sinker will inflate BABIP more than others, he still has some HR problems (1 –> 13 HRs allowed on sweepers last year?!), and his attack against LHB is rough, y’all. The changeup is not coming along and we know sweepers don’t work well against opposite-handed batters. That leaves his four-seamer/sinker combo to do a whole lot more than it should.
That combo is pretty cool against RHB, though. Pfaadt does a brilliant job splitting the two over the plate in both usage and location, leaning into his sinker’s exceptional drop and high four-seamers to return plenty of flyballs (without vert!) and 70% grounders on sinkers. I don’t love it – if batters guess correctly, the pitches themselves aren’t all that great…hey, HRs! – but when he’s commanding it all, he cruises.
But against LHB, that combo isn’t nearly as good. The four-seamer is scattered around and returned a 45% ICR with a low SwStr rate, while the sinker was tossed just 13% of the time for a 48% ICR. They got hit. Everything got hit by LHB.
So yes, Pfaadt did get unlucky last year. It’s possible his FIP tells an accurate story, though I see an elevated BABIP and somewhat “unlucky” LOB rate being the life Pfaadt is destined to live with his LHB struggles and heavy grounder tendencies. The fella needs something new instead of relying on stellar command for a stretch to bring his ratios back to decency. It’s too much to ask for a pitcher who could actively hurt your team if left alone for the full year.
Quick Take: If Pfaadt can figure out his LHB problem or get into a command rhythm for an extended period, he could fall close into “Holly” territory. However, Walker’s removal at 1B may keep the BABIP still high even with normalization + I’m struggling to determine what Pfaadt does to fix his time against LHB. That’s too much risk for me in 12-teamers.