Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2025 Fantasy Baseball: 3/12 UPDATE

TOP 100 SP RANKINGS UPDATE – 3/24/2025 HERE

THESE RANKINGS ARE OUTDATED

I’ve updated my Top 100 Starting Pitcher Rankings for fantasy baseball drafts on March 12th – Read the February ranks for deeper understandings of each pitcher, and use this order for help in your drafts.

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. Before the notes and rankings, an injury table outlines where players would be relatively ranked if they were fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week. (Spring edition: I have a few hypothetical rotation arms on The List who will be off the ranks if they leave camp out of the rotation).
4. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. The HIPSTER players are likely going to underperform those labeled as a Toby across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase ceiling vs. floor in many cases. Pick the one that you need most in your situation, of course.
5. I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just two labels per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
6. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots. Injuries are so strange (especially in spring training) and instead of shoving them at random moments on The List, I’ve elected to throw all of them into one table here for you, the wise fantasy manager, to determine if it’s worthwhile to take the injury discount and when.

It’s so hard to determine where injured arms should go, so I elected to merge the in-season List with the pre-draft rankings into one table that outlines the tiers I’d consider the injury stashes + where I envision them when they are routinely starting.

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend reading my 75,000+ word Top 400 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.

Let’s get to it.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

• I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
• These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.

 

I’ve changed the notes this year to have a small blurb on everyone. Much easier to write and follow along in my view and it matches the formatting of the streamers. Please leave your feedback on this change – is it better or worse?

 

Tier 1 – The True Aces

These pitchers are dope and make us feel dope.

 

1. Tarik Skubal – The safest combo of volume, ratios, Wins, and strikeouts. You can chase Skenes if you must, Skubal is safer.

2. Garrett Crochet – I adore Crochet’s four-seamer/cutter foundation and see it as the strongest pair to demand success out there. His health question is less of a concern to me after the White Sox did the very best thing to ensure health in 2025. He’s so good.

3. Paul Skenes – I get the love. He also surprises batters with horizontal run, not vertical rise, which lowers his four-seamer strikeout rate. In fact, our PLV projections have Skenes with a sub 30% strikeout rate because of it. I totally get it.

4. Zack Wheeler – He’s Wheeler. You’re going to get a stud for the year even if it isn’t the 30% strikeout rate of others.

5. Jacob deGrom – deGrom is the healthiest he’s been since 2019 and still sitting 97+ mph. You could even argue his elbow is healthier than many others given he just had it repaired vs. the scores of pitchers who are distant from their TJS or have never gotten it.

6. Cole Ragans – He sat 97.5 mph in his last spring start of four frames and is obviously removed from last season’s second half fatigue. His four-seamer/changeup combo decimates RHB, with his sole flaw coming from secondary strike rates to LHB, which he has openly acknowledged. He’s a stud and set to continue domination in the year ahead.

7. Logan Gilbert – I feel weird about this one. To the best of my knowledge, the Mariners haven’t changed T-Mobile Park (The Tea), which opens the door for another season of good performance simply based on the 25%+ boost in strikeouts at home. His elite extension makes his slider the best in the majors, but his overall command has always made me a little cautious. The four-seamer overperformed massively last year (.170 BABIP to RHB from .300+?!) and I think we’ll see him return to his 2023 self instead of maintaining this plateau. I’m leaving him here given the chance he does repeat or even improve.

 

Tier 2 – AGA With Something To Prove

They have the AGA tag, though they all have a quirk that could mean they lose it by May.

 

8. Corbin Burnes – I’m weirded out by Burnes’ cutter. We saw it lose vertical drop in his first two starts, gain some back in his last one, and while I want to believe it’ll be the same cutter we saw in late August/September last season, I have to acknowledge that Burnes could settle with a strikeout rate under 25% with a few problems here and there. Still dig it, just not like the other studs above.

9. Max Fried – The injury cloud is over New York and I’m wagering that the Yankees would not have granted that massive contract if they were concerned about his non-tear IL stint last year. Fried has displayed elite ratios countless times after his first handful of starts, outlining the possible AL Wins leader from the southpaw. He’s all-around solid.

10. Tyler Glasnow – The ability is obviously fantastic, but how much are we going to get? The difference between him and deGrom is partially quality, but moreso that the Dodgers are more likely to manipulate his starts to stretch out his health instead of starting without a leash until he hits the IL. In other words, you don’t get the same length of time for a replacement SP for the same number of innings.

11. Dylan Cease – I get why Cease is a thing. I get it. He bothers me given his questionable command and struggles with LHB, but the changeup he’s shown in the spring should help, even if just a touch. The strikeouts are just too dang helpful.

12. Michael King – I want to be a little careful of some bust potential with King after displaying fantastic volume and command last year. Simply put, the track record is smaller than everyone else above (Skenes is Skenes, ignore that) and he’s showcased moments where the sweeper or changeup aren’t doing exactly what we want them to. I still see him as a 25%+ strikeout arm with plenty of Wins heading his way, but there may be a few more hiccups here and there as he’s the highest ranked arm without a stellar heater.

13. Joe Ryan – He’s recovered from his Teres injury and still has a fantastic fastball. I like how he’s exploring other options to complement the heater this year, too, including a sinker that should do wonders to limit his HR rate to RHB. He’s a low WHIP pitcher who could flirt with a 3.00 ERA and 25-30% strikeout rate for a winning club. He’s set up for the high volume season you’ve envisioned for a while.

14. Chris Sale – Last year had all the signs of a peak season for Sale in the backhalf of his career – injury avoidance (save for the final few weeks) + squeezing the most out of a 95 mph four-seamer (not the mid-to-upper 90s of old) – and I don’t feel comfortable paying more than this with the expectation of 90% of that peak.

15. Blake Snell – Hey Snell. Can you do us all a favor and make this the one season you actually produce from the first start? No more “I lost my curve” or “I’m hurt” or whatever. Just dominate, okay? That’s unlikely. I KNOW.

16. Yoshinobu Yamamoto – There’s an innings cap given the Dodgers’ desire to limit him for the Playoffs, but the quality per inning is strong. Not absurd ace, but we’re all trusting Yamamoto to give us Wins and production across the board.

 

 

Tier 3 – We Expect Success Every Night

They have to earn the AGA tag but are just a few starts away from it.

 

17. Spencer Schwellenbach – He has so many weapons. A stellar cutter in the low 90s, two whiff-heavy breakers, a 96 mph four-seamer, and a splitter to attack LHB whenever it’s cooking. The major concern is workload after pushing over 160 frames between the minors and majors out of nowhere last year and it’s a decent chance last year’s sample isn’t representative of his command in the year ahead, especially with a four-seamer that was more hittable than expected. I’m optimistic his skill set is here to stay + the situation in Atlanta is made for him to excel.

18. Pablo López – He’s moved over to the right of the mound closer to 3B and I like the principle – it’ll help his sinker and sweeper – he hasn’t found the rhythm in camp quite yet. The fact López has carried an elevated hit rate across his career and has lost a bit of his sparkle on the changeup has me less enthusiastic than previous seasons. Still a guy you’re never dropping, of course.

19. Tanner Bibee – The slider split off into two distinct breakers last year and the “Cutter” variant was stupid good. I’m far more in than ever given that pitch and the more traditional slider, while the changeup and four-seamer are still the same. His leash is high with 90+ pitches per start on a winning club and that sounds lovely to me.

20. Shane McClanahan – I caught myself during the livestream. I was going to have McShane at the top of Tier 4 but then I realized This is SHANE DANGIT. He looks back to normal in the spring and the dings against him should be acknowledged, but I was too aggressive against them. Yes, he’ll get fewer innings (140-150), but injuries are super real (40% of SP every season!) and 140+ innings of McShane will be legit come season’s end. The other ding has been their new home in Steinbrenner Field, with the humidity taking Yankee Stadium and making it worse. But this is McShane. I personally don’t think this will affect him as much as other pitchers – he’ll strike out more batters than others after all – and at the end of the day, he’s an AGA without the volume. I want that. Please don’t make this so dang painful, Tampa Bay. PLEASE.

21. Shota Imanaga – I’m not gonna lie, I’m a little spooked by the massive 2-3 tick drop of his four-seamer and lower vert on his fastball from his most recent spring outing. I know, I know, it’ll very likely go up in his next start, but with all of these desirable arms without that ding, I figure it’s best to lower him proactively just a touch. I still adore his splitter, well spotted heater that gets effective strikes, and a sweeper to silence LHB. I know, he needs to be back in Tier 2 given his prophetic IM AN AGA. He’ll get that. I think.

22. Justin Steele – Give me the volume, ratios, Win chance, and shockingly good strikeouts of Steele. If you look at the starts he was actually healthy, it was a four-month stretch of being an absolute stud around a 2.50 ERA and 25%+ strikeout with a sparkling WHIP fueled by a 95th ICR rate – so much weak contact, y’all. I don’t care that he was blown up for 7 ER earlier in the week unless it becomes an actual trend across March.

23. Robbie Ray – You really should be drafting Ray. He’s the poster child of this week’s List for good reason – he should get a ton of volume, feature a 25%+ strikeout rate, display growth with a legit CH to silence RHB, and earn plenty of Wins. There is sure to be some volatility and frustration at times (it’s the Ray way) but I have to wonder how much difference there will be between Ray and Cease at season’s end. You can call him my #1 draft target for 2025.

24. Logan Webb – I’m encouraged by Webb experimenting with a deep arsenal across the spring, allowing him to do more than just hurl changeups over the plate and hope for the best. I don’t expect absurd SP #1 ability, but beneficial volume is a good thing as I don’t expect the 1.23 WHIP to repeat – batters were able to lace his changeup far more than they should have last season and he’s making the right adjustments to bring that hit rate back down to acceptable levels.

25. Bryce Miller – T-Mobile Park is unchanged and I’m encouraged by Miller’s new cutter (…that he hasn’t found a groove with during the spring), but I’m still worried that he doesn’t have the best command, nor the ability to twirl a legit secondary regularly. He’ll have games where the curve works, or the splitter, or sweeper or slider or whatever, but it settles into his four-seamer and some sinkers a bit too much for me to buy into his incredible 2024 campaign. Still want to go after for his volume n all, but there’s a reason he’s a lot worse on the road. The Tea (T-Mobile park) really is the anti-Coors.

26. Framber Valdez – Framber’s 2024 was terrible until his curveball unreal for roughly two months. He hasn’t carried over that feel into the 2025 spring so far, which does give me a little concern, but in the end, Framber is likely to be a workhorse once again. Possibly without ratios you don’t enjoy given the hittability of his sinker as Valdez will be without Alex Bregman at the hot corner + Christian Walker possibly missing time early as he recovers from an oblique injury. Get ready to trade for him in June…?

27. Bailey Ober – I worry about Ober’s dwindling ability to locate his four-seamer upstairs. He was formerly Bailey Oberizzi and we saw those HRs increase last year as the fastball went upstairs with less frequency. It’s been the same problem in the spring thus far and YET, despite those issues, Ober was stellar last year save for his first start of the year. Seriously, it was that game and one against Atlanta that turned his season from a stud year to a near 4.00 ERA. He’s not “destined” for disasters like these, y’all.

 

Tier 4 – So Dang Close To Greatness

I trust all these pitchers to produce this season while they also carry the ability to be more than an SP #3.

 

28. Hunter Greene – I’ve been stupid impressed with Greene this spring and I’m coming around to him. His ICR dropped massively on both his slider and four-seamer last season as he increased the heater’s vert from a super hittable 14.5″ to a much improved 16.5″, and this spring has displayed even more velocity and a great feel for the slider (16/16 strikes in one outing!). He seems as legit as ever and I get it y’all.

29. Sandy Alcantara – I want to be higher on Alcantara but we still don’t know the truth behind his innings cap this year + his team context is awful. The Marlins defense is terrible behind him + Wins will be tough to come by, especially if he has an earlier hook than previous seasons. Even without an elite K%, the skills are legit and the inevitable move to another team is sure to bring out the best in him for the second half. I still have a Sandy Crush.

30. Jared Jones – It doesn’t appear that Jones is destined to be a two-pitch pitcher, flexing a sinker and changeup this spring that I’m willing to bet will come together as he gets another full season on the bump. He has one of the prettiest one-two punches in the game and an expanded arsenal could turn him into a Top 5 SP overnight.

31. Freddy Peralta – Peralta lost extension last year and I’m a bit spooked about it. He’s supposed to be the extension darling and every draft season I question what we’re going to get. That said, he’s not going to dropped…right? That four-seamer eats up LHB and his slider is sure to find more strikes than it did last year. I think. Probably.

32. Bryan Woo – The four-seamer and sinker are a beautiful match, though I’m not convinced he’s developed enough with the rest of his arsenal to become a consistent 25%+ strikeout arm, especially away from T-Mobile Park. Throw in his annoying injury history from last year and you have more risk than I want for such a fun pitcher. He really looks like a mini Zack Wheeler to me if he could just stay healthy.

33. Ryan Pepiot – Pepiot’s four-seamer is a fantastic, even outside of the Trop. The slider and change should develop further in his second full season and I see him becoming a legit strikeout beast this year. There is a little more risk here than those above given the new home park and the weirdness of the Rays, but hot dang, Pepiot’s skill set gets me AMPED more than those in Tier 5.

 

Tier 5 – Why Do I Feel So Scared?

This is the toughest tier to rank and will likely be filled with landmines. Which will turn into the stud you dreamed of and which will be the bust?

 

34. Luis Castillo – I see a degrading fastball and a slider/change combo that doesn’t work as well at it used to. You can’t expect the WHIP to benefit massively and even carries risk of hurting your teams this year. The strikeout volume has always been there, though, and it’s highly unlikely we actually drop Castillo this year, but if Castillo is going to go in any direction, it’s south.

35. Aaron Nola – There wasn’t a whole lot separating Nola last year from his 2023 season at the shallow level – mostly LOB rate, really – and I’m worried that his curveball was far less effective and led to a 1.20 WHIP. I see a guy without an overpowering fastball who is losing the dominance of his best pitch and that should scare you. In a draft filled with exciting arms with potential growth, I’d prefer to avoid those who we hope are at a plateau.

36. Jack Flaherty – I’m worried about Flaherty’s ability to replicate the command of his slider and curveball from last year, while masking his four-seamer effectively. Worth the risk here for another stellar strikeout performance with digestable ratios, but I have more pause than I’d like.

37. Cristopher Sánchez – He’s throwing two ticks harder again and it should be enough to lower the stupid high nine hits-per-nine that inflated his WHIP last year. I’m not buying the new cutter sadly (he’s barely touched it and he barely touched it last year, too), but that velocity alone should be enough to make him a more effective arm all around as he goes deep into games for a winning team.

38. Kodai Senga – Ayyyy, he’s healthy again! The ghost fork is sure to keep the strikeout numbers alive and we saw Senga cruise during his rookie season once he settled into a groove starting in mid-June. Last year’s injuries are a thing of the past and I’m willing to bank on the four-seamer + cutter + splitter mix granting 25% strikeouts with good enough ratios for a winning club.

39. Sonny Gray – I worry that the sinker and sweeper won’t be nearly as effective in two-strike counts, bringing his strikeout rate back to its 2022/2023 rates around 24%, not the 30% explosion of 2024. 40% putaway rate to RHB with sinkers? Seriously?! He’s not the largest volume arm, either, and the Cardinals are not set to dominate the NL Central, lowering the Win chance a little more than others. His history of ebbs and flows in-season also make me a little annoyed to roster him and I’d rather not draft Sonny. That’s a me thing, though, you do you.

40. Carlos Rodón – Rodón’s embrace of changeups to RHB in the second half helped him stabilize and I’d imagine he’ll keep the approach through the full 2025 season. The Yankees will grant him Wins (again) and this should be a solid ratio performance. That said, you never really know what Rodón will do these days and it’s possible he falls apart and is an absolute terror for your fantasy teams. It’s unlikely and I don’t expect that, and strikeouts should be plentiful near a 25% strikeout rate. Just don’t let them destroy your heater, okay?

41. Hunter Brown – Hunter weirds me out. I want to say his four-seamer is his “hero” pitch, but it doesn’t come with the metrics you want to see. The sinker and cutter are the same and even switching to the cutter over the slider last year didn’t bring out an elite pitch. It’s all “good” and maybe that’s enough for a winning team? I’m also possibly not banking in enough potential for development this year, though at this point in the draft I want to have a little more I can point at and say “Yes! That thing! That’s what makes him so good!” I’m ready to be completely wrong here and honestly, I hope I am. I want every pitcher to be dope. Just promise me, Hunter. If you are dope, please do so in a way that makes sense? K thx.

42. Zac Gallen – I’m obviously afraid of Gallen. His four-seamer is getting worse each year and the curveball is the only reliable secondary of the lot. It’s awesome and the true deathball of the 2023 World Series, but the changeup and cutter/slider combo aren’t doing their part for a while. That high WHIP from 2024 may not be an anomaly many drafters believe it is.

43. Roki Sasaki – I contemplated this one a bit and came to the conclusion that Sasaki shouldn’t hurt your teams, but his lack of four-seamer whiffs, nor ability to command them inside the zone (get them up!) has me concerned when he doesn’t have a third pitch. Sure, the splitter has different looks to it, but when it’s four-seamer/splitter, you need to dominate more with the heater, otherwise you become the poor version of Gausman. We don’t want that, right? Toss in the Dodgers likely manipulating his innings to roughly 130 or so and enduring that whole pain along the way, I’d prefer not to have to deal with Sasaki on my clubs.

 

Tier 5.5 – The Pitcher List Hall Of Famers

 

Hey there. You might not know that we now have Lifetime Subscriptions at Pitcher List open for a limited time. We’re nearing our initial goal of 100 members before we close the subscription – act soon if you want to be a Pitcher List Hall Of Famer! – Sign-up for a Lifetime PL Pro Subscription here.

 

Tier 6 – I Like These Guys, Right?

I can see how all of these arms become obvious draft targets in retrospect come April 15th, but still have a few things to overcome.

 

44. Seth Lugo – Sure, he’s unlikely to repeat exactly, but his velocity is there and he still has his awesome arsenal of nine pitches. He’ll produce with a strikeout rate a touch over 20% and that’s cool with me.

45. Gavin Williams – This is a weird one. Many are jumping in on Williams now that he earned 24/66 four-seamer whiffs across two starts, but he’s always had that excellent heater. The aspect I was hoping to see from Gavin this spring was development with his slider and/or cutter and we haven’t gotten that so far. He’s gone heavy into the heater instead and maybe that’s a spring thing? I’m not sure. At any rate, he’s primed to hover six frames every five days for the Guardians with legit 25%+ strikeout potential. I’m willing to jump in on that and hope he finds that #2 pitch to return a 60%+ strike rate. Otherwise, the walk rate will hurt once again.

46. Jackson Jobe – I’m guessing that the Tigers will have Maeda and Jobe on the team, piggybacking for the fifth spot in the rotation for the first month in an effort to limit Jobe’s workload for the season. After that? It’s game time. Jobe is a premier talent who hasn’t racked up the strikeouts quite yet, but has all the stuff to do so. Believe in this kid, y’all.

47. Clay Holmes – I dig the expanded arsenal in the spring that includes the new kick change, especially at 95+ mph (not a dip all the way to 93/94 mph). However, I’m a little unnerved by The Adobe’s lack of sinker command that betrays its potential to return outs efficiently. I’m going to lean into it, but I want to make y’all aware of this possibility. He could turn into a WHIP liability.

48. Yu Darvish – Darvish has been consistently great with a bit of volatility as he figures out which of his eight pitches he has working on a given day. I know there’s a bit more “yeah, but is it good enough?” of a feeling with Darvish vs. others (and a question of sustainability, too), but pitching for the Padres for six innings per start should not be overlooked.

49. Spencer Arrighetti – I’ve been discouraged by Arrighetti’s slightly diminished velocity and lack of command this spring, though I’m brushing away that anxiety to still draft the Pasta Pirate and embrace his wide arsenal that includes a whiffable four-seamer and many secondaries that comfortably sit above a 15% SwStr rate. And yes, going regularly for the Astros is a very good thing.

50. Grant Holmes – The Real Estate Broker has two legit whiff pitches that he commands well + a four-seamer he can spot along the edges. He’ll also have a much longer leash this year and pitches in front of a solid defense and even better offense. What’s not to like?

 

Tier 7 – Volume + Some Fun

These are generally volume guys with some upside tinge to them. They aren’t carrying the upside/floor combo of Tier 6 but they are safer than Tier 8 and 9.

 

51. Shane Baz – Baz’s four-seamer isn’t as incredible as it once was, but the curveball has been stellar even without the slider’s absurd whiff rates. The move to Steinbrenner Field merged with little track record has me shying away more than I’d like this draft season, but he’s a great arm to target once you have your reliable arms. If it’s not a great situation early, burn and churn my friends.

52. Dustin May – He’s the SP #5 for the Dodgers and finally has the runway to develop into the pitcher he’s supposed to be. I don’t love his lack of verticality, but that can come over time with four-seamers upstairs that embrace his flat attack angle. Meanwhile, the sinker, cutter, and curve (read: sweeper) are stupid hard and induce a ton of weak contact to help him find the sixth for a Dodgers team that will look to May to eat innings early in the year. After all, May isn’t even a part of their playoff picture. Wild, eh?

53. Reese Olson – Olson is throwing a tick harder (if not more) in the spring, giving me more confidence that he won’t turn into a “Slider and nothing else” arm this season. The changeup has also been a solution to the problem in the past, but hasn’t been as reliable as the stellar breaker. I’ve seen him as a strong command arm during his time and Olson could take another step forward to become a reliable Holly this year.

54. Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi is who he is. Don’t worry about potential injuries or total innings – you’re drafting Eovaldi well past the point in your 12-teamer drafts where you expect to hold these pitchers for the entire year. The good news? Eovaldi has generally helped fantasy squads when healthy. Take advantage of that early and ride this as long as you can.

55. Walker Buehler – We don’t know what we’re going to get. We’ve had no data from his starts thus far and I’m banking that the Red Sox have helped him figure out the right approach for his above-average stuff. He has the ability to go deep into games with his wide arsenal and with the Red Sox threatening to take the AL East, Wins are sure to come with it.

56. Nick Pivetta – I like the situation in San Diego and I appreciate that he’s trying more than just four-seamer/sweeper to RHB. Is it enough to eradicate the HR problem and become a reliable starter? Can he keep up the strikeout gains? Can he have a single season in his career under a 4.00 ERA? Seriously, he’s never done it.

 

Tier 8 – A Leap of Faith At The Cliff’s Edge

Now that we’re past the “hey, this is legit value I’m unlikely to drop this season”, it’s time to shift to pure upside. It’s why these rankings are more aggressive than projections or likely other rankings you’ve seen elsewhere. It’s a 12-teamer and you should be embracing the burn-and-churn of your starting pitchers.

 

57. Drew Rasmussen – Is he the fifth starter for the Rays? He reportedly pitched three frames on a backfield and was apparently stupid filthy. I can’t get hyped until I see him pitch and/or get the data in front of me, but if he is starting without a dip in quality, you want to grab Rasmussen ASAP.

58. Jesús Luzardo – I hate the volatility of Luzardo (back-to-back-to-back HRs in the spring, really?!) but I love the situation. I’m drafting Luzardo early and hoping to see the changes he should be making – fastballs inside to LHB, changeups over sliders to RHB – while soaking up more Wins than his time in Miami.

59. Ryan Weathers – He’s sitting 98 mph with legit metrics on his four-seamer and that’s super cool. Sadly, he pitches for the Marlins with their terrible defense and offense. I also question his ability to throw strikes with his sweeper to LHB and I’m on the fence. I say we give this a shot and hope he’s just too dang good to ignore.

60. Max Meyer – Like Weathers, Meyer has been a new pitcher this spring and I’m excited for it. I’m a little tepid on the situation + is his four-seamer/slider combo enough? It’s hard to figure out who to favor here or if we should favor either in the first place. Give it a spin and let’s see what happens. I have Weathers over Meyer simply because we’ll be able to decide on Weathers a day earlier than Meyer in-season.

61. MacKenzie Gore – Yes, Gore can be awesome, but his feel goes in and out and it frustrates me to no end. Will I be able to trust it even when he does have a few games of success?

62. Nick Lodolo – Is he actually healthy enough to get into a groove to be the man we’ve always wanted him to be? If you’re hunting for strikeouts, you’ll definitely find some here, but the ratios…I’m not sure what we’ll get.

63. Yusei Kikuchi – Kikuchi went through many changes in 2024 and eventually found his groove with four-seamers and sliders as he shelved the change and curve. The Angels are not a good fit for him – fewer Wins and a coaching staff I don’t trust to help Kikuchi make the right tweaks in-season when he inevitably stumbles. I’d rather just avoid it.

64. Taj Bradley – The cutter command was far better last year, but is that enough for me to latch onto the whirlwind that is Bradley? I favor pitchers who I can make quick decisions about in my drafts and unfortunately, Bradley is too much of a question mark for me to chase.

 

 

Tier 9 – The Tobys You Kinda Like

These arms are generally going to stick on your team throughout the year, but you constantly wondering if they are doing enough to help. Borderline Holly, but actually a Toby.

 

65. Jeffrey Springs – He’s fine. The changeup should help him get strikeouts and the Athletics aren’t the worst team out there. I worry that there isn’t anything else outside of the slowball, though. He could outproduce all of Tier 8, though, and I was awfully tempted to place him in Tier 7. Ultimately, I think it’s a little too boring of a package to chase (especially with the injury scare once coming back from TJS last year), but you may see him jump up early in the year.

66. Tanner Houck – Will he have the same feel for his splitter that we saw in the first half of last year? It’s too much of a headache for me, but I understand he could settle in as a decent 12-teamer play for the year, especially if need Wins.

67. Kevin Gausman – I’m not seeing gains on the splitter in this spring and that has me worried. Gausman without a dominating splitty is not a pitcher you want on your 12-teamers.

68. Ronel Blanco – The changeup is the pitch I’m looking for from Blanco early. If he’s able to succeed with it out of the gate, he could pull off another successful run, even if the HOTEL isn’t nearly as favorable.

69. Zach Eflin – I worry that we’re seeing another step back from Eflin this year with the Orioles. If you need some Win volume, Eflin can be that, but are his ratios going to be all that great? It’s just a curveball and random pitches hoping to allow him to throw another curveball.

 

Tier 10 – Off Your Team Next Week

They either have legit problems that make me skeptical they can avoid the HIPSTER tag or they are competing for a rotation spot and may miss out come April.

 

70. Kris Bubic – He’s set to be the SP #5 for the Royals after a stellar year out of the pen. His fastball velocity is holding at 93 mph and as long as the changeup is able to sit lower in the zone and beneath it, Bubic could be a surprise pick up in all your leagues after his first start.

71. Jack Leiter – With Mahle and Bradford both questionable at the moment, we could see Leiter steal the SP #5 out of camp (if Adrian Houser doesn’t force his way…). Leiter is as explosive as any prospect, but he has shown poor walk rates when he can’t get his slider over the plate (2/10 slider strikes in his last spring start). The talent is too good with new changeups and sinkers appearing recently to complement 98+ mph with elite pitch metrics. He’s the fun one.

72. Richard Fitts – We saw one game of data from Fitts and it was bonkers. 97/98 mph four-seamers with 89 mph sliders and 85 mph sweepers with both breakers spotted beautifully to RHB. His second game was televised and not as thrilled (no data), but if that velocity holds at 96/97 with those two breakers, then I’m absolutely in. He has an opening in the rotation he’s yet to fully seize (Quinn Priester would like a word) and Fitts is the kind of arm you target late and see if he gets the full opportunity.

73. Reynaldo López – I’m terrified after watching a spring game of ReyLó sitting two ticks down and barely touching his breakers. After a season of heavy good fortune and a low walk rate despite a slider that failed to return close to 60% strikes, I’m worried López will hurt more teams than help. Still worth consideration to see how it goes early, but I’m favoring other options until I see that fastball return and development with the slider to earn consistent strikes.

74. Max Scherzer – Ignoring the right thumb soreness that scratched him from his Thursday start, Scherzer’s opening schedule is rough. I don’t like the idea of throwing him out there against tough offenses in April. It’s that simple, really. Feel free to target Scherzer if you don’t care a whole about that (that’s reasonable!), but I see a pitcher with worse skills than before who is being put in a tough position early in the year.

 

Tier 11 – Fine, You Need Some Innings

Sneaky starters who could find you some wins or quality starts but shouldn’t be held with adoration in your 12-teamers. Ayyyy, the Toby tier!

 

75. Nestor Cortes – I question if Cortes’ fastball and cutter are really that good, leading to more volatility than I’d like. That said, he still put up a strong 1.15 WHIP last season and has a safe situation in Milwaukee.

76. Matthew Boyd – Boyd’s biggest problem is HRs due to an elevated four-seamer that batters can still hit when elevated. Wrigley should help reduce some HRs, while the slider and changeup could make Boyd flirt with a 25% strikeout rate. That’s cool.

77. Ranger Suárez – Suárez’s velocity returned in his last start and it’s possible he’s the same guy you saw in the spring of last year. However, if he’s not feeling his arsenal around the zone early, I suggest moving on to something else.

78. Tomoyuki Sugano – I wonder what we’ll actually get out of Sugano. Does he have the command to squeeze everything out of his changeup? It’s possible and the Orioles can give him enough offense to grant a ton of Wins if he can make it through six. Keep an eye on this.

79. David Peterson – His extension is awesome but his changeup needs to be cooking for him to take proper advantage of it. We haven’t seen it every time out so far, but it could be there right out of the gate.

80. Clarke Schmidt – Schmidt isn’t the most efficient pitcher, but I appreciate his new affinity for his cutter that solved his biggest problem: Taking down LHB. It’s not the best commanded cutter, but it’s good enough to earn Wins across the year. I don’t think he has the highest upside, sadly, and that pushes him down past the other electric arms.

81. Merrill Kelly – Don’t overlook Kelly. He’s the same guy you know who can produce a solid ERA and decent WHIP, exploiting the strong defense behind him. If you need volume and Wins, Kelly is a good option.

82. Justin Verlander – Same with Verlander. He’s not the strikeout guy of old, but he can get outs and could produce a solid ERA/WHIP in a good situation.

83. Nick Martinez – His four-seamer is getting more vert than ever and I love that he’s actually in the rotation for real. He may lack velocity or a legit breaking ball, but the changeup is a joy to watch.

84. Brady Singer – It’s super weird to see Singer embrace more four-seamers than sinkers in his last start, but it may the ticket to keep LHB from lacing his sinker so often. This could be a decent play even in Cincy given his propensity for grounders and hey, maybe there are some whiffs in that four-seamer?

85. José Soriano – He’s a sinker/curve guy who is trying to find the slider but it just hasn’t clicked quite yet. I don’t love that he pitches for the Angels and it’s awfully borderline for 12-teamers, especially considering there isn’t much more of a ceiling to hit.

86. Michael Wacha – The changeup is still good and it’s a great team context. He’ll have fluctuations with the changeup not doing enough to mask the rest of his questionable arsenal and this may turn him into a streamer for most of the year.

87. Luis Severino – He heads to Seattle for his first start of the year. Sure, why not?

88. Brandon Pfaadt – I just don’t buy that Pfaadt has done enough to combat LHB. It wasn’t just luck that he returned a horrific ERA last year and those expecting a breakout, I have to ask: What do you think he’ll do differently across the full season to make that happen? Something needs to change and I don’t know what.

89. José Berríos – It’s The Great Undulator. He saved his season with a fantastic run in the second half and it’s masking what is likely to be a lot of pain this year.

90. Tobias Myers – I love watching his changeup when it’s working, but sadly it infrequently does so. The wide arsenal helps him keep the ratios relatively down and we could see some development this year. He’s a guy to eye off the wire.

 

Tier 12 – The Desperate Dart Throws

I’m skeptical of all these arms, but some legitimate elements of each could blossom early in the year.

 

91. Casey Mize – I feel like we’re watching the same Mize from last season. He still doesn’t have a feel for spin and I can’t bank on the splitter becoming a reliable #2 pitch. I’m sorry, I want to believe.

92. Hayden Wesneski – The situation is great as the SP #5 for the Astros, but he reminds me too much of Pfaadt – a great sweeper and nothing else. I hope he surprises us early and takes advantage of the role.

93. Mitch Spence – Spence’s cutter velocity is up and he could be a surprise this year as a discount Rasmussen with cutter/slider and sinkers jutting inside to RHB. Someone to watch early.

94. Cade Povich – We haven’t gotten data on Povich yet this spring, but he could steal the SP #5 job for the Orioles (unless the Orioles want to take advantage of his options and slot Albert Suárez in the rotation for the short term). If Povich’s changeup has developed, then he could be a solid Toby, if not something more.

95. Bowden Francis – Nope, I just don’t buy it. I don’t like his arsenal and the four-seamer is worse than last year. I’m avoiding here.

96. Triston McKenzie – His velocity is up in the spring, and I’m happy he tuned it down to 93.5 (still +2.5) to find more strikes in his last outing. His slider is still chaotic (like the old days), but if his curve is cooking with the heater, that may be enough.

97. Joe Boyle – He’s been given a long leash as a starter so far in the spring (3 IP last time out) and his mechanics look a bit cleaner to throw more strikes. Shocking, I know, but 100 mph heaters with decent strike rates may force the Rays to let him start. Monitor this.

98. David Festa – I’m not sure if the Twins will have Festa in the rotation and if they do, I’m not sure it’s everything we want it to be. Festa’s command has been in-and-out and it may take some time before he can breakout as we think he can.

99. Will Warren – The Yankees suddenly ran out of SP depth and unless they want to take advantage of Carlos Carrasco and use one of Warren’s options, Will could be in the rotation out of camp. I don’t see a massive ceiling here, but he’s a Schmidt type who could become a solid streaming option or Toby during the year.

100. Landen Roupp – I dig Roupp’s variety of pitches and whiffability, but he’s not quite as explosive as other names on The List. He could earn the #5 spot over Harrison, Winn, and Birdsong, but I don’t think he’s quite at the point of being an add if it’s confirmed. There are too many great arms out there this year.

 

Honorable Mentions

I ran out of time and I apologize for no honorable mentions in this update. Check out the daily SP Roundup for my thoughts and visit my morning streams for any specific questions about SP. Good luck in your drafts!

 

SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Tarik SkubalT1	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	-
2	Garrett Crochet	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	-
3	Paul Skenes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	-
4	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	-
5	Jacob deGrom	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk	+1
6	Cole Ragans	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	+2
7	Logan Gilbert	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	-
8	Corbin Burnes T2	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	-3
9	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus	+3
10	Tyler Glasnow	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk	+3
11	Dylan Cease	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	+5
12	Michael King	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	-3
13	Joe Ryan	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	+2
14	Chris Sale	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk	+4
15	Blake Snell	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	+4
16	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus Playing Time Question	+4
17	Spencer Schwellenbach T3	Ace Potential Wins Bonus	+11
18	Pablo López	Ace Potential Quality Starts	+3
19	Tanner Bibee	Ace Potential Quality Starts	+5
20	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+9
21	Shota Imanaga	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	-7
22	Justin Steele	Ace Potential Quality Starts	-
23	Robbie Ray	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+14
24	Logan Webb	Ace Potential Quality Starts	+3
25	Bryce Miller	Ace Potential Ratio Focused	-
26	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential Quality Starts	-
27	Bailey Ober	Ace Potential Quality Starts	-4
28	Hunter Greene T4	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk	+14
29	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential Ratio Focused Playing Time Question	+5
30	Jared Jones	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+9
31	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+2
32	Bryan Woo	Ace Potential Ratio Focused Injury Risk	-1
33	Ryan Pepiot	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+12
34	Luis Castillo T5	Holly Quality Starts	+1
35	Aaron Nola	Holly Quality Starts	+1
36	Jack Flaherty	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+4
37	Cristopher Sánchez	Holly Wins Bonus	+15
38	Kodai Senga	Holly Strikeout Upside Injury Risk	+6
39	Sonny Gray	Holly Strikeout Upside	-1
40	Carlos Rodón	Holly Wins Bonus	+3
41	Hunter Brown	Holly Wins Bonus	+7
42	Zac Gallen	Holly Quality Starts	+4
43	Roki Sasaki	Holly Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-13
44	Seth Lugo	Holly Quality Starts	+5
45	Gavin Williams T6	Cherry Bomb Quality Starts Injury Risk	+13
46	Jackson Jobe	Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+14
47	Clay Holmes	Cherry Bomb Quality Starts	+29
48	Yu Darvish	Cherry Bomb Wins Bonus	-1
49	Spencer Arrighetti	Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside	+7
50	Grant Holmes	Cherry Bomb Wins Bonus	+25
51	Shane Baz T7	Holly Strikeout Upside	-
52	Dustin May	Holly Ratio Focused Playing Time Question	+5
53	Reese Olson	Holly Strikeout Upside	+28
54	Nathan Eovaldi	Holly Wins Bonus	+1
55	Walker Buehler	Holly Wins Bonus Team Context Effect	+9
56	Nick Pivetta	Holly Strikeout Upside	+23
57	Drew Rasmussen T8	Hipster Ratio Focused Playing Time Question	+9
58	Jesús Luzardo	Hipster Strikeout Upside Injury Risk	+7
59	Ryan Weathers	Hipster	+UR
60	Max Meyer	Hipster	+UR
61	MacKenzie Gore	Hipster Strikeout Upside	+13
62	Nick Lodolo	Hipster Strikeout Upside Injury Risk	+10
63	Yusei Kikuchi	Hipster Strikeout Upside	+8
64	Taj Bradley	Hipster Strikeout Upside	+6
65	Jeffrey Springs T9	Toby Quality Starts	-11
66	Tanner Houck	Toby Wins Bonus	+2
67	Kevin Gausman	Toby Quality Starts	-5
68	Ronel Blanco	Toby Wins Bonus	-15
69	Zach Eflin	Toby Wins Bonus	+11
70	Kris Bubic T10	Hipster Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+19
71	Jack Leiter	Hipster	+UR
72	Richard Fitts	Hipster	+UR
73	Reynaldo López	Hipster Wins Bonus Injury Risk	-23
74	Max Scherzer	Hipster	+UR
75	Nestor Cortes T11	Toby Strikeout Upside Injury Risk	+8
76	Matthew Boyd	Toby Quality Starts	+11
77	Ranger Suárez	Toby Wins Bonus	+UR
78	Tomoyuki Sugano	Toby Ratio Focused	+UR
79	David Peterson	Toby Wins Bonus	+UR
80	Clarke Schmidt	Toby Wins Bonus	+2
81	Merrill Kelly	Toby Quality Starts	+4
82	Justin Verlander	Toby Quality Starts	+UR
83	Nick Martinez	Toby Ratio Focused	+UR
84	Brady Singer	Toby Quality Starts	+UR
85	José Soriano	Toby Quality Starts	-1
86	Michael Wacha	Toby Quality Starts	+UR
87	Luis Severino	Toby Quality Starts	+UR
88	Brandon Pfaadt	Toby Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+5
89	José Berríos	Toby Wins Bonus	+UR
90	Tobias Myers	Toby Quality Starts	-2
91	Casey Mize T12	Streaming Option Quality Starts	+UR
92	Hayden Wesneski	Streaming Option Team Context Effect	-
93	Mitch Spence	Streaming Option Ratio Focused	+UR
94	Cade Povich	Streaming Option Team Context Effect Stash Option	+UR
95	Bowden Francis	Hipster Rotation Spot Bonus	-17
96	Triston McKenzie	Hipster Strikeout Upside	+UR
97	Joe Boyle	Hipster Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+UR
98	David Festa	Hipster Strikeout Upside Stash Option Playing Time Question	-7
99	Will Warren	Streaming Option Wins Bonus Stash Option	+UR
100	Landen Roupp	Streaming Option Team Context Effect Stash Option	+UR

 

Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)