Trades across the landscape of Major League Baseball can alter so much this time of the year.
From pennant chases to a team’s future hopes, transactions this late into July can be crucial in determining the future success of a franchise or a team.
That trickles down into fantasy as well, with some players dealt in real-life trades seeing their fantasy ceiling positively or negatively impacted by trades.
Somewhat speaking to the latter, sometimes it’s better for a player’s fantasy upside if they aren’t traded in real life.
Of course, that can be because of a number of different factors, but they’re factors all the same.
Here are some of those players.
In recent weeks, we’ve discussed how players like Tanner Scott and Mason Miller could benefit (fantasy-wise) from being dealt from a rebuilding team to a contender who can offer much more in the way of save chances.
Scott and Miller have both been varying degrees of dominant this season and would probably step into closing roles on most teams this season.
Finnegan, meanwhile, has enjoyed a solid year for the Nationals, saving 28 games in 44 appearances to go along with a 2.32 ERA and a 3.89 FIP in 42.2 innings of work, striking out 44 batters and allowing 14 walks and six home runs in the process.
The bat-missing numbers, including a 26.0% strikeout rate that sits in the 73rd percentile, are certainly encouraging, the 32-year-old has allowed a significant amount of quality contact this season.
Opposing batters have collectively turned in a 7.2% barrel rate and a 49.1% hard-hit rate against the veteran, with the latter number registering in the first percentile league-wide. Furthermore, Finnegan has induced grounders at just a 40.5% rate so far, which isn’t incredibly high. For reference, the number sits in the 37th percentile in the league.
On paper, the Royals are the only contender that jumps out as a fit on paper where Finnegan could step into the ninth-inning, but Kansas City still has John Schreiber and Angel Zerpa on hand and recently acquired Hunter Harvey from the Nationals. The Rays are 29th in bullpen fWAR this season but have Pete Fairbanks on hand in the ninth inning.
Speaking of the Harvey trade, it also involved the Nationals trading away perhaps the team’s top ancillary saves option.
Though with that being said, the Nationals weren’t divvying up ancillary saves anyway, Finnegan has accumulated all but one of the team’s saves so far. And that really speaks to the fantasy ceiling here with the veteran the rest of the way.
A trade to a contender could limit his save chances considerably while staying in Washington could result in a 40-save season and a top-10 fantasy finish at his position.
Staying in Washington D.C. with the Nationals, we switch to Lane Thomas. There’s a decidedly similar dilemma here with the outfielder as his fellow Nationals teammate.
In Washington, the 28-year-old has played regularly, hitting .246 with a .314 on-base percentage, eight home runs, and 26 stolen bases, showcasing solid plate discipline with a 20.7% chase rate and a 19.7% whiff rate.
That regular playing time has meant plate appearances near the top of the order alongside the likes of CJ Abrams and Jesse Winker
The question here is twofold. Has Thomas been effective enough at the plate to hit regularly for a contender? And is he going to get the same type of fantasy-friendly plate appearances near two hitters of the quality of Abrams and Winker?
With just a 7.3% barrel rate, a .331 xwOBA, and a .410 xSLG this season the answer to the first question is probably dependent on the lineup of the team acquiring him (in the event that he was traded). And while that doesn’t explicitly rule out a jump in the fantasy ceiling, it’s not the most promising potential development either when considering the next few weeks.
As for the second question, given Thomas’ drop off in power production this year—he has just three barrels since June 20 and has seen his overall barrel rate fall from 9.6% last year to 7.3% in 2024—he probably seems likely to hit in the bottom half of a contending team’s lineup (again in the event that he’s traded).
Of course, this is all entirely speculative on my part. But unless he’s stepping into a fully healthy Dodgers lineup, it seems unlikely that he’d be hitting ahead of or after a batter like Abrams or Winker.
With that in mind, the best-case scenario for his fantasy ceiling (like Finnegan) for the rest of the season probably involves staying in Washington.
Elias Díaz and Brendan Rodgers
Departing Colorado for a different team via trade this month could certainly benefit a player like Ryan McMahon’s fantasy production, considering McMahon’s quality road splits this season. In fact, McMahon has arguably been better on the road this season.
It’s not quite the same with two of his Rockies teammates.
Overall, Elias Díaz is batting .283 with a .333 on-base percentage and five home runs in 276 plate appearances.
Brendan Rodgers, meanwhile, is batting .270 with a .313 on-base percentage, seven home runs, and a stolen base in 336 plate appearances.
And while both are doing some things well to help support that surface-level production (Diaz is sporting a 17.8% strikeout rate while Rodgers is logging a 45.0% hard-hit rate) neither is sporting an overall xwOBA north of .305. Furthermore, both also have barrel rates below 5.0%.
Elsewhere, strong home production is playing a key part in both’s overall stats this season.
Remove both (or either) from a situation where they’re playing half of their home games at Coors Field and the fantasy ceilings change significantly. Because while a low strikeout rate (in Diaz’s case) plays well in a place like Coors Field, increased contact isn’t quite as likely to translate to strong surface-level and fantasy production in a more pitcher-friendly park. It’s a slightly similar story with Rodgers and his elevated hard-hit rate.