What’s up everybody!
I’m in the midst of releasing my annual pitch review series where I take a look back at the five best pitches of each pitch type from 2024, as ranked by PLV! Today, I’m taking a look at the five best curveballs from last year.
If you’d like a closer look at what this series is about, check out the first article in the series on the five best changeups of 2024. And if you’d like an in-depth primer on what PLV is and how it works, check it out here.
Anyway, let’s dive into the five best curveballs of 2024!
The Fratty Pirate had his first full season as a reliever last year with the Blue Jays and the Dodgers to actually pretty good results, posting a 3.19 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP in 98.2 innings.
Ryan Yarbrough has never been accused of being a strikeout artist, but his appeal (especially as a reliever) comes as a guy who limits hard contact and walks and he did that well last year, with an 8% walk rate (good for 61st percentile among relievers) and a 32.9% ICR (good for 79th percentile).
Last year, Yarbrough all but ditched his cutter that he’s utilized in the past in favor of a four-seamer to go alongside his sinker that he throws more than any other pitch.
Like I said, Yarbrough doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, but if he were to have a putaway pitch, it’s this curveball. Coming in at an exceptionally slow 71 MPH on average with a ton of vertical break to it, Yarbrough’s curveball was a solid swing-and-miss pitch (a 32.1% chase rate and 17.5% swinging-strike rate, which ranks in the 61st and 80th percentiles among curveballs, respectively) that also did a great job at limiting hard contact, with a 27.1% ICR (good for 88th percentile among curveballs) and a .230 wOBA against.
Yarbrough isn’t the most exciting pitcher to watch, he doesn’t have the flashiest stuff, but last year it was working pretty well, and I anticipate it’ll work again this year.
Yusei Kikuchi has never been the most consistent pitcher around and he’s always sort of been this guy with some great stuff who seems like he’s so close to having a killer breakout season.
Two years ago was pretty close, but it’s always felt like Kikuchi could do better, and last year we saw some flashes. He’s got a rock-solid fastball that comes in at 95.5 MPH on average with fantastic height-adjusted VAA and good induced vertical break. And he’s always had that, his fastball has always looked great from a shape perspective, but his secondaries are where things have gotten wonky in the past.
Last year, his pitch mix bounced around a lot. With the Blue Jays, he focused a lot more on his slider alongside his curve, but then he went to the Astros and he went with a changeup-heavy approach instead and basically abandoned this curveball, which was a shame because this curveball works pretty darn well. Last year, the pitch had a solid 33.1% CSW and did a great job limiting hard contact with a 29.5% ICR.
While Kikuchi’s approach adjusted during his time with the Astros and he went more fastball/slider, he still wasn’t throwing his curveball as much, and I’m hopeful that with the Angels now, we’ll see the return of this curveball, cause it’s a really good pitch.
Kyle Harrison is only 23 years old, and I think it’s important to preface what I’m about to say by acknowledging the old TINSTAPP philosophy that pitching is so volatile that a bad pitcher can suddenly become a good pitcher more quickly and easily than a hitter can, but Harrison has some issues.
This curveball is not one of them—on the contrary, it’s a pretty solid pitch. Now, it’s not a big wipeout curveball that strikes everybody out. That’s not how Harrison utilizes it. In fact, Harrison only threw the pitch in two-strike counts 21% of the time last year. Instead, this is a pitch Harrison tosses in there early in counts to get an easy strike.
And for that purpose, it worked. Last year, the pitch had 40.1% CSW (93rd percentile among curveballs) driven almost entirely by called strikes, not whiffs.
Unfortunately, Harrison didn’t do the best job commanding the pitch, as it also had a habit of getting tattooed, with a 51% ICR and 18.8% HR/FB rate against it (both of which are bad).
And more, unfortunately, Harrison doesn’t have another pitch better than this curveball. His fastball is fine and works well as a foundation for him to work his secondary pitches off of, but he doesn’t have that wipeout strikeout pitch between his curveball and his changeup.
Now, all of that said, Harrison is again, 23, and reportedly has a new slider he’s working with in spring training, so obviously things could turn around, but aside from this curveball which worked great last year as a surprise called strike pitch, Harrison doesn’t have much else going for him.
2. José Berrios
You live by the curve, you die by the curve, or at least José Berríos does.
Ultimately, Berríos turned in a perfectly solid season last year, posting a 3.60 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP over 192.1 innings, but that came with a measly 19.5% strikeout rate, which doesn’t help you much in fantasy.
What helps even less is how volatile Berríos was last year. He was either one of the worst pitchers on your staff or he was absolutely lights out, and he would bounce back and forth between the two.
And it all comes down to this curveball. When it’s on, Berríos is incredible, and when it’s off, he’s awful. But this pitch is a beauty when it’s working, and it worked fairly well last year, posting a 32.5% CSW with a 34% chase rate and a 13.6% swinging-strike rate, all of which are numbers that grade pretty well above average.
Berríos does have a changeup he tosses in sometimes, but mainly he’s going sinker/curveball and occasionally throwing in his four-seamer and his changeup.
I’d anticipate Berríos will be much of the same this year—sometimes he will look electric and then other times he’ll give up eight runs in 3.2 innings like he did against the Phillies last year. It’ll likely all even out by the end of the season, but it’ll be a bumpy ride on the way.
1. Aaron Nola
This should be a surprise to literally nobody if you’ve been paying attention to baseball like…at all over the past few years.
Aaron Nola has led this list many times in the past and did it once again this year. Now, I do think it’s important to note that Nola’s curveball isn’t quite what it’s been in the past, in part due to the fact that Nola’s changeup hasn’t been quite as good as it used to be, which has led lefties to sit on his curve a bit more (last year, lefties had a 39.8% ICR against Nola’s curve, which is not great).
That said, the curve still works (and it looks pretty doing it). The pitch had a 36.2% CSW and an absurd 49.2% chase rate (97th percentile among curves) last year, not to mention a 21% swinging-strike rate (94th percentile) and a solid .275 wOBA against.
Nola’s had a lot of ups and downs over the year, and while I wouldn’t say he’s quite the ace he used to be, he’s still an excellent pitcher, and it’s thanks in large part to one of the best curveballs in the game.