The Cole Nine Yards

If you guys followed the site today, you’ll have noticed that Gerrit Cole snuck into the Top 25 on The List and he followed it up with a 6.0 IP, 2...

If you guys followed the site today, you’ll have noticed that Gerrit Cole snuck into the Top 25 on The List and he followed it up with a 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks line against the Reds. Okay, so this might seem like I’m all for Cole here and if you own him I don’t think I’m suggesting sell him, but let’s have a chat. No emotion here, just some good old stats and bad jokes – you know, normal stuff. After this start, Cole is holding an 8.50 K/9 and 1.75 BB/9. Solid. IPS is at 6.0…I’ll take it. xFIP is at 3.51, which is fine? I want something a little more encouraging, but once you knock out his first two outings where he totaled 8 ER, he becomes a bit more tantalizing. The main question I have had since the pre-season is how good his Slider is going to be. He’s lost movement on the pitch both horizontally and vertically, but he’s also increased its whiff rate to a career high 20.7% thus far and that should make you satisfied. If Cole has that slide piece going, then the rest follows. I still worry a little about the Fastball command, but for now I’m happy with what I’m seeing and keep riding this one out. Don’t expect a Top 15 run this season, though I’d be shocked if he fell outside the Top 40.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Amir Garrett – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. After a super elite start followed by one of the worst outings you’ll find, of course Garrett had a pretty middling start today. Duh. Still don’t love his Fastball command enough to trust each time out.

Marco Estrada – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. And that’s why you just have to roll with Estrada. He’s one of the better command guys around with his FB/CH combo and I think many overlook how his approach should outperform typical BABIP and LOB rates.

Wei-Yin Chen – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. Chen with a partially torn UCL does better than Kershaw tonight. That’s baseball Suzyn. THAT’S RIGHT JAWN. You have to excuse me, going to the Yankee game tomorrow with my friend where we have to say this at least once twice five times during the game. Such is tradition.

Daniel Norris – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks. You know, Norris’ only low ERA starts have been against the Indians this year. Another weird one here holding a 1.50 ERA with those excellent 8 Ks but the velocity is still lower than September and I’m questioning if we can trust this. It’s a major upside play if you need one, but if you have any benefit of being conservative, I’d look elsewhere.

Johnny Cueto – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. That’s just 1 ER too many, so I guess I’m okay with this. Still have been pretty meh on Cueto this year, but you really shouldn’t be selling him at this point unless you get great value for him.

Jake Odorizzi – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Even though it was just two weeks, I still treated this like a DLH – he did throw under 80 pitches – but Odorizzi made good work of his time on the mound. Feel free letting him loose next time out against the Jays.

Rick Porcello – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Man this has to feel good if you ran with Porcello tonight.

Lance McCullers – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks. It’s like someone took the idea of Pineda and turn it up a notch because THIS IS AMERICA. I rarely use the term Cherry Bomb anymore, but man oh man is McCullers one of them.

Vince Velasquez – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. On the plus side, this is the first start of the year Velasquez allowed fewer than 3 ERs. On the negative side, a 4/3 K per BB is looking standard affair for VV and that’s far from good. On the other plus side – OH MY GOD IT’S A TRIANGLE – this was against the Cubs and a 1.00 WHIP, 1.80 ERA, and 4 Ks is a beneficial night. I’m just starting to think the K upside is going to be expressed less than we want it to be and the ratios won’t be there to hold our hands during those tough evenings. It’s all we want, just a little comfort.

Dylan Bundy – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. And the legend continue of Bundy, who once again went a little too deep into the game. He really labors past pitch 90 and was all set to leave after seven, but Buck sent him out for the 8th where he allowed a double and two singles, adding 2 ER to his total. I don’t think I’ve seen such an apparent wall being hit in the later innings, let alone being allowed to hang out with the seventh and eighth. It’s like they’re the seniors handing a beer over to freshman Bundy. You really should find a new crowd, Bundy. Don’t tell me he can hang, Buck. He’s just not cool enough. Seriosuly though, just look at this amazing gamefeed from Baseball Savant and look at Bundy’s Fastball velocity at the end as it dips under 90mph. I’m still selling high here.

Jason Vargas – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. See, this is the kind of start you expect from Vargas when he’s “on”. Sure, keep rolling with him for now, but be ready to cut him out of your life when it doesn’t go his way.

Andrew Cashner – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. If you rolled the dice with Cashner, you’re a braver man than I’ll ever be.

Clayton Kershaw – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Kersh, what is this. Legit. You even gave up another uneared run as well as your ERA now sits at 2.61. That’s a full point too high GET IT TOGETHER.

Michael Wacha – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Blegh. There’s a part of me that thinks Wacha can really turn it around but he just keeps giving me reasons not to invest.

Zach Davies – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Ehhhhh this doesn’t make me all too thrilled about Davies. It’s just all around lame.

Julio Teheran – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. This is why I’ve been hating on Teheran. Can’t say I expected the Mets to be the ones to let him have it, though. On the real, it’s not like the Mets to beat expectations. Stop it Nick, they’ve gone through enough. This is true, but I also felt that way after 2007. Womp womp. Back to Teheran, that’s a 4.58 BB/9 and 5.06 FIP on the season now. Ummmmm.

Luis Severino – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Oh come Severino, you look like an absolute BEAST against the Red Sox in one of the more fun games to watch of the year and then you do this against the Blue jays. If you know much about Severino, you can probably guess why he wasn’t as impressive today: he just didn’t have the nasty Slider he’s been featuring – just three whiffs on the pitch in this affair. It’s just one bump in the road and I have to expect he makes an adjustment and gets back to where he was, so don’t do anything rash.

Robert Gsellman – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. Screw sticking to my guns, I haven’t gone to gym in ages. K see ya bye Gsellman. It’s been real. Real bad.

Dylan Covey – 6.2 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Yeah yeah yeah, Covey is the #5 starter on one of the worst pitching staffs around.

Trevor Bauer – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks. This is why we don’t chase after Bauer’s strikeout potential.

Brett Anderson – 1.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Okay, I didn’t take a half point, but to be fair I told you to only do this if you really wanted to gamble for a Win. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Streamer Record 12.5-10-3. Double digit losses? Nooooooooooo.

Today’s Streamer

Alex Wood vs San Francisco Giants I originally had Tyler Chatwood vs San Diego Padres as I assumed Wood would be taken in your league. That my be a bit silly, so I wanted to make it clear that Wood is my #1 streaming choice today, with Chatwood as a #2.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Charlie Morton vs. Texas Rangers – The Rangers aren’t the fearsome team they were prior and Morton is looking great.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Joe Musgrove vs. Texas Rangers Not loving this one and was tempted to go with Kyle Freeland against the Padres, but I really don’t feel like going with a Three-Fists Compromise so here we are with Musgrove.

Game of the Day

Justin Verlander vs. Corey Kluber – One of the best matchups you’ll find.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

15 responses to “The Cole Nine Yards”

  1. Manley Ramirez says:

    Why do you assume Wood is taken and if he is must own why don’t you rank him higher?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Not calling him a “must own”, I just assume that if people are looking to stream, Wood is most likely to be taken. But fair, I’ll change the article to make it more transparent and call Wood my streamer pick of the day and Chatwood as the backup.

  2. tim says:

    Cotton or Gsellman? (deep league)

  3. Pops says:

    Moved Cueto and Trumbo for Salazar and Segura in a H2H points league. Wasn’t comfortable with the velocity loss and the underlying numbers. Thoughts on the return?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I think you undersold Cueto a little bit (velocity loss?) and I assume you’re already set for power

  4. Alex H says:

    I don’t want to get off Dylan Bundy’s wild ride!

  5. Manny says:

    Would it make sense to try and trade for Jose Ramirez – 12 team 5×5 roto

    C Sal Perez
    1 Encarnacion
    2 Kinsler
    3 Carpenter
    SS Lindor
    OF Trout
    OF Thames
    OF Bautista
    Util Ozuna
    Util Rendon
    BN – Pedroia, Inciarte

    SP – Verlander, Carrasco, Paxton, Cole, Taillon, Shoemaker, E Rodriguez
    DL – Nola, Manae
    RP Giles, Bush, Norris Defenski

    I think I could move Cole and another piece for him but not sure if it’s worth it. It would have to be Cole and either Rendon, Carpenter or Pedroia. Kinda think that’s a bit of an overpay.

  6. Soggy Arm says:

    How long do you foresee Joe Ross down at AAA? A start? Couple weeks? ASG?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I’d imagine around three weeks? He can’t come up until around two weeks and I have to think they simply want him to look great upon return. You can drop him.

      • Soggy Arm says:

        Even in a 12-team? NA spot currently filled by Berrios. If drop Ross, who’s the pickup– Cotton, Morton, J-Monty, Daniel Norris, Musgrove? Just added JC Ramirez and Wheeler.

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