The Darts I’m Throwing in Drafts This Year

It’s fantasy baseball draft season, and that means it’s also “read yet another article about sleepers” season, but as you prepare for your draft, I wanted to take a look at some of the deep sleepers you might want to take a flier on in the later rounds.

This is my third iteration of the dart throws article, and the past two have featured some names that worked out pretty well, including Trevor Rogers, Robbie Ray, and Mitch Haniger last year.

I want to be clear about a couple of things before we get started. First, these are deep sleepers, dart throws, guys whose NFBC ADP is 250 or later — basically it’s the guys who are either going undrafted in most 10- and 12-team leagues, or in deeper leagues, going in the last handful of rounds.

I also want to be clear that I’m not saying these guys are going to be absolute fantasy stars for your team, or even necessarily all that good. These are fliers to take in the late rounds, and the beautiful thing about late-round fliers is, the risk is minimal — if things don’t work out, you’ll know relatively quickly, and it’s pretty easy to drop the guy and the only price you paid was one of your last picks.

So here are some of the darts I’m throwing in drafts this year.

 

Lane Thomas (ADP: 250)

 

After coming over to the Nationals in the Jon Lester trade, Lane Thomas promptly unseated Victor Robles in the outfield and turned in an alright 77 games, posting a .235/.341/.412 line with 7 HRs, 35 R, 28 RBI, and 6 stolen bases.

That’s all well and good, but why would that make me interested in him as a sleeper? First off, he’s probably going to be leading off for the Nats this year, which already boosts his value (even if the Nats’ lineup isn’t great, the guy still gets to hit ahead of Juan Soto).

Second, Thomas has shown he’s got a nice power/speed combo. In 2018, between Double- and Triple-A, Thomas posted a .264/.333/.489 line with 27 HRs and 17 stolen bases. And it’s worth noting that Thomas posted a 29 ft/s sprint speed last year, which puts him in the 93rd percentile in baseball (for context, the league leader last year was Trea Turner at 30.7 ft/s).

The skills are there, the question will just be consistent opportunities and batting average. I think he’ll get the opportunity, because the Nats don’t really have a reason to run with anyone else, and I think the batting average could improve. So could he hit in the .240s and go 15/15? I think that’s doable, and that’s definitely a useful player.

 

Alex Cobb (ADP: 253)

 

Alex Cobb had himself a very nice bounceback season last year with the Angels, posting a 3.76 ERA and a career-best 24.9% strikeout rate over 18 starts. Now, Cobb is with the Giants in one of the most pitcher-friendly home parks in baseball, and I’m excited to see what he might be able to do.

One of the big keys to Cobb’s success has always been The Thing, his splitter, which was fantastic last year, posting a 47.8% chase rate and 20.2% swinging-strike rate alongside a .270 wOBA and .082 ISO against. It did everything you want a secondary pitch to do—it led to a bunch of chases outside the zone, swings and misses, and it induced a lot of weak contact.

But one pitch does not a pitcher make, as we’ve seen from Cobb. His splitter was pretty good in 2020 as well, and that season wasn’t great. Thankfully, the rest of Cobb’s repertoire was pretty solid too. He didn’t have another swing-and-miss pitch like his splitter, but his sinker and curveball did a great job inducing more weak contact, with an ISO against of .114 and .111 respectively.

In fact, Cobb induces a lot of weak contact, with a boatload of groundballs, and lucky for him, he’s going to San Francisco where he’ll have a pretty darn good defense behind him (a point our own Nick Pollack very saliently made in this excellent breakdown of Cobb).

So the strikeout potential is decent with The Thing (provided he’s got a feel for it), the groundballs are there, he’s in a great environment, everything is in place for Cobb to do well. He’s just gotta stay healthy (and that’s a massive caveat). Either way, I think he’s worth a shot.

 

Spencer Torkelson (ADP: 255)

 

This is probably one of the more obvious sleepers, but as of this writing, Tork is still going beyond a 250 ADP, and when the number one overall draft pick is likely getting a steady starting gig, you take a shot on him.

Torkelson was drafted in 2020, so he spent just last year in the minors and showed just how good of a hitter he can be. Between Single-, Double-, and Triple-A (a total of 121 games), Torkelson slashed .267/.383/.552 with 30 HRs, 89 R, 91 RBI, and 5 stolen bases.

I don’t see any reason the Tigers wouldn’t get Tork moving into the majors this year, it’s not like they’ve got any other first basemen blocking him. And if he’s got a steady gig, obviously the ceiling is sky-high.

But realistically, what could we expect from a full season of Torkelson? I want to temper my expectations. It’s super easy to look at a top prospect coming up and want them to be a superstar, and maybe Torkelson will be that, I don’t know.

But I think a full season of Torkelson could look like a guy hitting in the .240s or .250s with 20-30 home run potential. He’s not going to see a ton of runs or RBI because he’ll be in a less-than-optimal lineup, but the skills are very much there, and he’s absolutely worth a flier.

 

Cal Quantrill (ADP: 257)

 

Cal Quantrill is a really interesting case, and this pretty much sums up why I’m intrigued by him:

wOBA against for each pitch in Cal Quantrill’s repertoire last year

Sinker: .305
Cutter: .254
*Fastball: .385*
Changeup: .274
Slider: .255
Curveball: .214

None of his pitches are especially good K pitches, but if he ditched that FB, he’s got a nice rep of weak-contact pitches

— Ben Palmer (@benjpalmer) February 22, 2022

The list of pitchers who have one really bad pitch holding them back is about a mile long and is full of guys who have never really been able to figure it out. It’s entirely possible Quantrill could be one of those guys.

But at the same time, we’re looking at a pitcher who tossed 149.2 innings with a 2.89 ERA. Now, it came with a 4.07 FIP and 4.52 SIERA, and those are things to definitely be concerned about, but there’s just something interesting about Quantrill.

Like I said in the tweet, nothing Quantrill throws is especially good from a strikeout perspective. He had a 19.6% strikeout rate and 26.1% CSW rate last year, both of which are super low. If he has a swing-and-miss pitch, it’s probably his changeup, which posted a 31.5% chase rate and 9.7% swinging-strike rate, but those are pretty unspectacular numbers.

Quantrill is a pitch-to-contact guy, and while those guys do make me nervous, I can’t help but think if Quantrill tweaks his repertoire a bit, he could have some success. As I mentioned, all of his pitches were really good at inducing weak contact save for his four-seam fastball.

And that four-seamer didn’t just have a bad wOBA against, it got tattooed to the tune of a .233 ISO against as well.

Overall, I kind of like the way Quantrill locates his pitches. Take a look at where he locates his sinker, changeup, slider, and curveball (from left to right):

Keeps the sinker and changeup in on the hands of righties, breaks the slider away, and drops the curveball in the dirt. That’s like textbook what you want to do as a pitcher. Problem is, Quantrill doesn’t throw his slider or curveball much, electing instead to primarily work with his sinker, cutter, and four-seamer.

The cutter works, it had a .254 wOBA and .124 ISO against, so I’m fine with him peppering that in, but I’d love to see him use his awful four-seamer less (do you really need to throw three different fastballs?), work with the sinker/cutter and utilize his changeup, slider, and curve a little more.

This is all theoretical, of course, but when I’m looking at a sleeper, I look for a guy who has the pieces of the puzzle laid out on the table, I just want them to put them together, and Quantrill looks like he might have that. He’s going to have a shot in the Guardians’ rotation, so might be worth a look to see what happens.

 

Anthony Santander (ADP: 260)

 

Anthony Santander had a fun little mini-breakout season in 2019 with a .261/.297/.476 line with 20 HRs through 93 games. He’s had some injury issues and his 2021 didn’t look all that great, with a .241/.286/.433 line with 18 HRs, 54 R, and 50 RBI through 110 games.

But when you pop open the hood and look deeper into Santander’s numbers, I’m a bit more intrigued. First off, the guy hits the ball pretty darn hard. Last year he posted a 30.4% Statcast hard-hit rate, which puts him in the upper third of the league.

He also had an ideal plate appearance rate (in other words, barrels + solid contact + flare & burners/plate appearances) of 31.5%, which was top-20 in all of baseball. Now, that might sound like kind of a goofy stat, but what it essentially says is that roughly a third of the time Santander was at the plate, he made good quality contact.

That tendency towards good contact popped up in his expected stats. His .241 average came with a .269 xBA, while his .307 wOBA came with a .328 xwOBA, and his .433 SLG came with a .446 xSLG.

These aren’t numbers that jump out off the page to you, but they’re indicative of a guy who has some good power and can make some good contact. It’s also worth noting that Santander increased his flyball rate a good bit during the second half of the season.

“But Ben!” you shout wildly at your computer, sweating profusely, “What about the changes to Camden Yards to make it less home run friendly?”

I hear you, and that might have a slight effect on Santander, but I’m not overly worried. Santander is a switch hitter, and here’s a look at the 49 home runs he’s hit since 2019 laid overtop of Camden Yards:

You’ll notice they’re pretty evenly distributed. So I don’t think the changes to the left field wall at Camden Yards are going to hurt Santander as much as they would other hitters.

Could Anthony Santander end up hitting around the .260s (like he has the past two years) with 25ish home runs and decent run/RBI totals? I think that’s definitely possible, and I’ll take that late in drafts.

 

Josiah Gray (ADP: 283)

 

Speaking of guys whose terrible fastballs are holding them back, ladies and gentlemen, it’s Josiah Gray! Coming over to the Nationals as part of the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner trade, Gray had absolutely dominated every level of the minors since he was drafted in 2018, always posting a sub-3.00 ERA.

But his time at the major league level was basically the opposite. Through 13 starts and 70.2 innings, Gray pitched to a miserable 5.48 ERA that came with a 6.00 FIP and 4.60 SIERA. Just bad news all the way around.

So why am I interested in him at all? It’s two things—talent and opportunity. Gray will absolutely be in the Nats’ rotation, there’s no reason for him not to be, so he’ll have plenty of time to work things out at the major league level.

It’s also important to remember that Gray was a rookie last year, he’s still just 24-years-old, and he’s got some pretty nasty pitches in his repertoire. And guess what? This is Pitcher List, so you bet your sweet behind there are gonna be some GIFs.

First up, Gray’s curveball:

https://gfycat.com/biodegradableselfassuredcuttlefish

This pitch worked beautifully as a strikeout pitch, with a 36.1% chase rate and a 20.7% swinging-strike rate. It nearly qualified as a money pitch, as it also had a 37.4% zone rate, just shy of the 40% threshold. And even if hitters made contact, they didn’t do a whole lot with it, as the pitch had a .259 wOBA against.

Then, there’s his slider:

https://gfycat.com/unsungnegligibledartfrog

Yet another great swing-and-miss pitch, posting a 39.7% chase rate and 23.1% swinging-strike rate, and once again just missing out on being a money pitch with a 39.7% zone rate.

Having multiple money pitches isn’t particularly common either. Had both of those pitches qualified, Gray would’ve been only the second pitcher to throw multiple money pitches last year (the other being Shane Bieber).

So what’s the problem then? Well, one of the problems is his command of his curveball and slider. While both had wOBAs against below .260 (which is fantastic), the curveball posted a .190 ISO against and the slider posted a .192 ISO. What does that mean? It means that on one too many occasions, Gray laid his curveball or slider in the zone and it got destroyed.

But the main problem is Gray’s fastball. It’s got decent velocity, averaging around 95 MPH, but the pitch got absolutely destroyed last year, to the tune of a .414 wOBA and .338 ISO against. That’s just godawful.

Gray also just had no control over the pitch (clearly, considering how much it got killed), posting a 12.8% walk rate with his fastball.

The reason I like Gray as a flier is because he’s clearly got some talent, and I don’t mind taking a shot on a rookie learning more in his second season. That curveball and slider, they play really well at the major league level, they’re top-notch putaway pitches. If he can command them a bit better and improve his fastball location, Gray could be a pretty awesome pitcher.

 

Luis Patiño (ADP: 295)

 

Luis Patiño is another guy where I’m taking a flier on a talented rookie who struggled a bit in his first full year in the majors. Through 15 starts and 77.1 innings, Patiño posted a 4.31 ERA with a 4.51 FIP and 4.61 SIERA, not great results, but Patiño has some good stuff to work with.

One of the big selling points with Patiño is his fastball, which looks like a lightning bolt coming down the pipe.

https://gfycat.com/scratchysleepyewe

It’s got high velocity and high spin, and it worked pretty well last year, posting a .286 wOBA against and even getting some swings and misses with an 11.3% swinging-strike rate. The pitch also had the 18th most ride of any four-seam fastball in the league last year.

Alongside that, Patiño has a pretty sweet slider:

https://gfycat.com/idealbadkodiakbear

The pitch didn’t quite get the swing-and-miss numbers I’d expect, posting just a 27.8% chase rate and 14.2% swinging-strike rate. But it’s got potential, especially when paired with his fastball. And it worked fairly well as a weak-contact pitch, posting a .278 wOBA against.

Patiño is a work in progress with some control problems, but what organization better to work through those problems than the Rays? Similar to Gray, Patiño is a guy who has a lot of talent, and late in drafts, I’m willing to take a flier on talent.

 

Rowdy Tellez (ADP: 315)

 

I’ve been a fan of Rowdy Tellez for what feels like a century at this point, and I’ll be honest, I pretty much gave up hope on him ever getting meaningful playing time while he was on the Blue Jays.

But he’s not with the Blue Jays anymore! He’s on the Brewers now, and there’s reason to believe he’ll get plenty of playing time, which is exciting!

The reason that’s exciting — Rowdy can hit the cover off of the ball. In 2019, his best season to date, he posted a 13.2% barrel rate, which was good enough for the top 9% of the league. Last year, that barrel rate was 11.6%. And the past three years, Tellez has had a max exit velocity in the top 6% of all of baseball.

So yea, Rowdy can kill the ball, and now he’ll have an opportunity (most likely on the favorable side of a platoon) to get regular at-bats in Milwaukee. Could I see Tellez getting in the .250s with upwards of 20 to 25 home runs? Yea, I could see that, and I could see the power surging beyond that too. It sort of reminds me of Teoscar Hernandez, who for years had a poor average but hit the ball really hard, and then in 2020 it all clicked and he started crushing the ball (which he did last year too).

Could that be the path for Rowdy? Maybe. I like the raw talent, and that’s all I really need in a flier. Talent and opportunity.

 

Yusei Kikuchi (ADP: 323)

 

Yusei Kikuchi was on last year’s version of this list, and for the first half of the year, I was pretty excited about what he was doing, because through the end of June, Kikuchi posted a 3.34 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate. But that also came with a .220 BABIP and 4.34 FIP and the law of averages always wins, leading Kikuchi to post a 5.73 ERA from July 1 on.

So why is Kikuchi on the list again? Because to me, Kikuchi feels (and has felt) like a guy who is that close to figuring it all out.

Think about what you want to see in a successful pitcher, just any pitcher. Ideally, you’d probably like them to have a solid fastball as a foundation (though you don’t have to!), then at least one quality putaway pitch with a solid secondary pitch.

Kikuchi essentially has that (with one major caveat we’ll get to in a second). Last year, Kikuchi’s fastball was pretty decent at inducing weak contact, with a .308 wOBA against and a .314 wOBA against in the year before. He even got some swings and misses with the pitch with an 11% swinging-strike rate on the pitch (which is pretty good for a fastball).

Then, there’s his slider, which last year had a 45.7% chase rate (good for seventh-best in baseball last year) and a 17% swinging-strike rate alongside a .316 wOBA against. That pitch has been awesome for Kikuchi ever since he stepped foot into the league.

And then we’ve got his changeup, which last year looked pretty darn good, posting a 40.7% chase rate, 21.6% swinging-strike rate, and a .192 wOBA against.

So to recap: a solid fastball and two good putaway pitches. What’s not to love?

I’ll tell you what’s not to love — Kikuchi’s command and his cutter.

Let’s start with his command — as I mentioned, last year Kikuchi’s fastball and slider had a .308 wOBA and .316 wOBA against, respectively. They also had a .205 and .201 ISO against, which is really bad. What that says to me is Kikuchi is not commanding the pitches in the strike zone well and is laying in one too many meatballs that are getting crushed.

If you want a visual representation, take a look at where Kikuchi located his fastball, slider, and cutter (left to right) last year:

That’s a lot of pitches right down the heart of the plate.

Speaking of his cutter, in 2020, Kikuchi introduced a new cutter and it was his primary pitch, for good reason too, as hitters had just a .310 wOBA and .123 ISO against the pitch as well as a 30.4% chase rate and 10.5% swinging-strike rate.

All of those are pretty solid numbers. But that all went out the window last year, as hitters had a .387 wOBA and a .203 ISO against the pitch. And the biggest concern to me? The pitch also had a 17.5% walk rate.

So yea, Kikuchi has the raw tools there. A fastball that’s pretty solid, a cutter that’s worked well in the past (that he could honestly ditch if it’s still not working), and two very good strikeout pitches in his slider and changeup. He just needs to fine-tune his command and stop throwing pitches down the middle. There’s potential there though, which is why I’m fine taking a flier on him.

 

James Kaprielian (ADP: 337)

 

James Kaprielian locked down a consistent starting gig with the A’s last year, starting in 21 games and pitching 119.1 innings, and turned in a not-so-great 4.07 ERA with a 4.33 FIP and a 1.22 WHIP.

But there’s stuff to like here. First off we’ve got a pretty nice strikeout pitch in his slider, with a 15.2% swinging-strike rate last year (though a less-than-impressive 29% chase rate) and a solid changeup behind it, posting a 35% chase rate and 10.2% swinging-strike rate.

It’s a pretty nice looking changeup too:

https://gfycat.com/leafyminiatureindianringneckparakeet

And Kaprielian’s fastball got a good handful of swings and misses too, posting an 11% swinging-strike rate. The problem? Fastball command. Hitters had a .349 wOBA against the pitch, which isn’t great, but more concerning, hitters had a .220 ISO against it.

This was Kaprielian’s first long stint in the majors though, there’s a lot to learn, and given the guy’s nice fastball/slider combo with a good changeup behind it, I’m a fan of the stuff. Much like a lot of guys on this list, there’s potential there, and he’ll certainly have an opportunity in the A’s rotation, making him worth a flier.

 

Evan Longoria (ADP: 359)

 

Something very interesting has been happening to Evan Longoria over the past couple of years, and it’s not making a ton of noise (well, maybe it is in some circles)—he’s hitting the ball a lot better.

I referenced this when I listed Longoria in my dart throws article last year because it really started in earnest in 2020. That year, Longoria’s Statcast profile suddenly looked really good as he posted an 11.5% barrel rate, his best since 2016, and a career-best 45.2% Statcast hard-hit rate.

Then last year, he did even better, posting a career-best 13.4% barrel rate and another career-best 54.5% hard-hit rate. He also upped his launch angle to 15.5 degrees, the highest rate since 2016.

So what does all of this mean? It means Longoria has been tweaking his approach and, as a result, he’s hitting the ball a lot harder than he has in years past. The problem is, Longoria missed time throughout the season and ultimately only played 81 games.

But if you were to pace out those 81 games into roughly a full season, you’re looking at a guy who hits in the .260s with close to 25 home runs and around 80/80 in runs and RBI. That’s not all that far off from what someone like Kris Bryant (minus the steals) or Ryan McMahon did last year.

Now before you start typing an angry comment, I’m not saying that Longoria is going to do that. What I am saying is that it seems he has that ability. He’s clearly doing something different with his approach and it seems to be working. There are a lot of conditions to that, the biggest one is him staying healthy. That’s far from a given, though it’s worth noting that he played the majority of 2020 and played over 120 games in 2019 and 2018, so it’s not super far-fetched either.

As late as Longoria is going in drafts, I’m willing to take a shot on the improved contact translating into production for Longoria.

 

Dane Dunning (ADP: 376)

 

Dane Dunning is another one of those guys where I like their raw skills and I’m willing to take a flier on them hoping they put things together.

All in all, Dunning wasn’t great last year. He got a steady starting gig in Texas, starting 25 games and pitching 117.2 innings, but that came with a 4.51 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a mediocre 22.3% strikeout rate.

And there were moments of brilliance too. In May, Dunning struck out 10 batters in five innings against the Mariners and pitched six innings of shutout ball with six strikeouts against the Yankees.

Like I said with Kikuchi, what is it we want in a pitcher? A solid fastball and at least two good breaking or off-speed pitches. Dunning has the fastball — last year his sinker posted a pretty decent .343 wOBA against and a 54% groundball rate.

And then Dunning has his slider and changeup, both of which posted really good swing-and-miss numbers. The slider had a 40.6% chase rate with a 19.7% swinging-strike rate, and his changeup had a 43% chase rate with an 18% swinging-strike rate.

So in review, we’ve got a guy with a decent sinker and two good putaway pitches (one of which qualified as a money pitch last year). So where’s the problem?

The problem is his command. His changeup worked great as a swing-and-miss pitch but it also came with a .203 ISO against. And even worse, his cutter came with a .420 wOBA against and a 20% walk rate.

There’s stuff for Dunning to work on without a doubt. Personally, I’d like to see him either ditch his cutter or at least rein it in. Despite all the contact, the pitch only had an ISO of .037 last year, so it was giving up a lot of singles.

If Dunning is able to improve his command some, he’s got the bare bones of a quality repertoire. Like I’ve said with some of the other guys on this list, late-round fliers are all about talent and opportunity, and I think Dunning has both.

 

Grayson Rodriguez (ADP: 457)

 

Is this a bit of homerism on my part as an Orioles fan? Yea, probably. But it’s also a belief in two things — Grayson Rodriguez is really really good and the Orioles rotation is really really bad.

I’m serious. Aside from the wonderful and incredible John Means, the rest of the Orioles rotation is rough. We’re talking Jordan Lyles (who has posted a season ERA better than 5.00 just three times in 11 seasons), Bruce Zimmerman, Keegan Akin, and Zac Lowther.

Now, give me a whole column about the Orioles and I’ll tell you why I think there’s a bit of potential in guys like Akin and Lowther, but they pale in comparison to the potential Rodriguez has.

Between High-A and Double-A last year, Rodriguez was fantastic, posting a 2.36 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP and 161 strikeouts in 103 innings (that’s 14.1 K/9, which is nuts).

Rodriguez is very good, and while I have no doubts he’ll start the year at Triple-A, I don’t think he’s going to be there very long. Orioles GM Mike Elias in September even said of Rodriguez, “I don’t think it’s 100% necessary to pitch in Triple-A.”

Now like I said, I don’t think Rodriguez makes the Opening Day rotation, but it seems like Elias has no issue bringing Rodriguez up sooner than later and it’s not like he’s blocked by a rotation of superstars.

If you’re in a deeper league and can burn a bench spot stashing Rodriguez with one of your last picks in the draft, I’d do it, because the upside could be big.

 

Zach Thompson (ADP: 468)

 

Zach Thompson is another one of those guys who has an interesting repertoire and makes me very curious to see what he’s going to do given an opportunity.

Last year with the Marlins, Thompson pitched to a 3.24 ERA and a 3.69 FIP in 75 innings (14 starts). Now, it’s important to note that ERA also came with a 4.58 SIERA, but again, as I’ve said with a few of these guys on this list, think about what we’re looking for in a good pitcher — Thompson mostly has it.

Solid fastball? He’s got a cutter as his most-thrown pitch that posted a .229 wOBA and .099 ISO against last year and even garnered some swings and misses with a 30.3% chase rate and 10.1% swinging-strike rate. It’s a pretty nice looking pitch too:

https://gfycat.com/madeupkindheartedcarpenterant

How about a good strikeout pitch? Thompson’s got that too, in this pretty sweet changeup:

https://gfycat.com/delayeddopeyafricangroundhornbill

Last year, that pitch garnered a 30.9% chase rate and a 21.1% swinging-strike rate alongside a .226 wOBA and .118 ISO against. It works really well as a swing-and-miss pitch and it works well inducing weak contact.

And to back that up, Thompson has a pretty solid curveball, which posted a 31.6% chase rate and 15.3% swinging-strike rate last year alongside a .251 wOBA and .085 ISO against.

So to recap, we’ve got a guy who throws a solid fastball as his most-thrown pitch that gets some swings and misses but is mostly very good at inducing weak contact and then a breaking ball and an offspeed pitch that work well as strikeout pitches and weak-contact pitches. And that’s not even mentioning his sinker he occasionally threw, which also posted great contact numbers with a .289 wOBA and .091 ISO against.

So exactly what is the problem with Zach Thompson? It’s his four-seam fastball. It’s bad. Like, really bad.

Last year, hitters had a .429 wOBA and .296 ISO against Thompson’s fastball, and he posted an 18.4% walk rate with the pitch, which isn’t surprising given he only threw it in the zone 45.1% of the time, which is a really bad zone rate for a fastball.

He clearly just didn’t have the feel for that pitch last year, because otherwise, control wasn’t really a huge issue for him. Aside from his four-seamer, none of the pitches in Thompson’s repertoire had a walk rate worse than 6.3%.

So imagine a world where Thompson either decides to work with a cutter/curveball/changeup combination or works with his cutter and sinker as his fastballs with the curveball and changeup to complement them, all but ditching this terrible fastball. I’d be super interested to see what might happen.

There’s talent there, no doubt in my mind. Sure, it was a fairly small sample size last year, but Thompson performed really well and showed he’s got a pretty solid all-around repertoire, save for one extremely bad pitch. And Thompson, now on the Pirates, should get the opportunity in the rotation, given that the Pirates don’t exactly have a rotation of studs right now.

So late in drafts, I’m willing to take a swing on someone like Thompson on the chance that he figures things out. He’s got the tools, now he just needs to put it all together.

(Photo by Icon Sportswire) Adapted by Shawn Palmer (@PalmerDesigns_ on Twitter)