As we start to shift our attention to 2026, we need to analyze the performances we saw in 2025. This can be especially difficult for those who do not have a large sample size to analyze. This year, we saw several young pitchers make their debut and perform well late in the season. This article breaks down the performance we saw from four different pitchers and helps shed light on what fantasy baseball and dynasty managers can expect from these pitchers in 2026 and beyond.
Former Pitching Prospects with Small Sample Sizes
Nolan McLean, SP New York Mets
2025 Results
Nolan McLean made his Major League debut on August 16 and looked dominant in eight regular-season starts with the team. McLean finished with a 2.06 ERA, a 2.97 FIP, and a 30.3% strikeout rate. He pitched at least five innings in each start he made. In a must-win game to end his regular season, McLean struck out 11 Cubs’ batters to help his team earn a win. Notably, 2025 was McLean’s first professional season focused solely on pitching. After serving as a two-way player early in his career, McLean’s shift to the mound could not have been any more successful.
The Positives
Digging into McLean’s arsenal, there is a lot to take in. McLean throws six different pitches, with his high-spin sweeper being the most notable. His sinker and sweeper both graded out as above-average pitches according to PLV. McLean’s curveball also generated a whiff rate of 50% at the Major League level while being graded a 150 on Stuff+. With three different fastball varieties, McLean keeps opposing batters off balance and was effective against both lefties and righties. His sinker allows him to keep the ball in the yard while creating a stable floor for his future value. He has already proven the ability to work deep into games, averaging six innings per start.
The only starting pitchers that generated a higher Stuff+ score than McLean in 2025 were Hunter Greene, Shohei Ohtani, Eury Perez, and Jacob Misiorowski. That is a pretty fun group of pitchers to be a part of. As mentioned before, this was McLean’s first year pitching full-time. Things should continue getting even better for him even after finding instant success at the Major League level.
The Concerns
While McLean’s success is the headline, there are some flaws to his current profile. For starters, McLean’s main fastball is a sinker. Sinker-ball pitchers do not tend to sustain strikeout rates north of 30%. McLean pounds the zone with strikes, and his chase rate ranked well below the league average. While his breaking pitches generate plus movement, his sweeper is thrown at an arm angle that is nearly six degrees below the rest of his pitches. Major League batters crushed this pitch, batting .361 against it.
2026 and Dynasty Outlook
McLean’s run of success to end 2025 has him locked into a rotation spot entering 2026. Starting pitcher is the one area where the Mets lack depth. McLean (along with Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong) is here to stay and contribute. An encouraging takeaway from 2025 was the number of innings McLean pitched. After throwing 113.2 innings in the Minor Leagues, McLean threw another 48 with the Major League team. Despite only recently transitioning to the mound full-time, McLean is fully built up and will not face any innings restrictions in 2026.
Analyzing McLean’s future profile is tricky. For 2026, his draft price is likely to be high. He is young, has found success in the Major Leagues, and plays in a large market. Fantasy baseball managers should proceed with caution. Yes, McLean’s success was encouraging, but things are likely to get more difficult in 2026. For starters, the book is out on McLean. Hitters have a full off-season of scouting reports and film that they can watch. Also, as discussed above, McLean’s strikeout is likely to come down in 2026 which would cap his fantasy value.
The dynasty outlook on McLean is more optimistic. The reason? Dynasty managers do not need to factor in draft cost. If you are drafting a young pitcher high (which is the assumption with McLean), you are expecting consistent results for 2026. In dynasty, you already roster McLean, and have time to be patient and let him work through any adjustment period. While the likely decrease in McLean’s strikeout rate remains, there are also improvements McLean can make to his sweeper, pitch mix, and release point to offset this. McLean’s four-seam fastball was excellent in 2025, and throwing this more would increase his ceiling. The spin rates, movement, and strike throwing ability are already there, creating a stable base and tantalizing upside.
TLDR: McLean’s draft price is likely to set expectations too high for fantasy baseball managers in 2026. For dynasty, McLean’s deep arsenal, pure stuff, and potential make him an excellent asset and one who could develop into an SP2/3 consistently.
Cade Cavalli, SP Washington Nationals
2025 Results
Cade Cavalli’s return to the mound marked a turning point in an extensive road to recovery. After undergoing Tommy John Surgery in 2022, Cavalli missed all of 2023, hardly pitched in 2024, and did not ramp up until halfway through the 2025 season. Cavalli returned to the Major Leagues on August 6, firing 4.1 scoreless against the Athletics. In total, Cavalli made 10 starts for the Nationals and finished with a 4.23 ERA. His FIP from this season supports his ERA at 4.57. He struck out 17.2% of batters he faced with an impressive 7.1% walk rate. At 27 years old, dynasty managers are now tasked with determining what Cavalli’s true value is moving forward.
The Positives
While Cavalli’s ERA does not stand out, things were better than the surface stats indicate. Cavalli really only had one poor start in which he gave up eight runs to the Yankees. If you remove that start, Cavalli’s ERA would have been 2.98. From a stuff perspective, Cavalli’s fastball jumped up 1.5 mph from where it stood back in 2023. His knuckle-curve and changeup both generated whiff rates above 38%. Cavalli fired plenty of strikes, limited weak contact, and generated a chase rate of 33.6%. Even while shaking off the rust, Cavalli’s walk rate was still better than the league average. Most importantly, Cavalli came out of 2025 healthy.
The Concerns
The main concern with Cavalli is the low strikeout rate. Amongst starting pitchers with 40+ innings, Cavalli’s 17.2% strikeout rate ranked 32nd worst in all of baseball. In terms of fantasy, pitchers need to post strikeouts to generate fantasy value. Cavalli’s did not. Cavalli also really struggled to keep right-handed batters in check. Typically, right-handed pitchers struggle with lefties, but this was not the case. With Cavalli’s best two pitches being a curveball and a changeup, he posted reverse splits. Righties slashed .364/.432/.506 against him this season. Although the sample size was smaller, Cavalli ran into a similar issue back in 2022.
2026 and Dynasty Outlook
Cavalli is already 27 years old with only 53 Major League innings under his belt. In those, he owns a 5.09 ERA and a 4.48 FIP. Lackluster on-field results combined with playing for Washington will likely suppress his draft cost in 2026.
While Cavalli has struggled to find consistent results at the Major League level, he profiles as an excellent late-round flier to take in 2026 drafts. 2025 was Cavalli’s first real game action in nearly three years. His fastball velocity ticked up, he kept the ball on the ground, generated weak contact, and had a chase rate that ranked in the 95th percentile. His surface strikeout rate does not paint an accurate representation of the upside Cavalli flashed in 2025. Also, as is key for any young pitcher, Cavalli should have no trouble locking down a spot in Washington’s Opening Day rotation. He is clearly one of the top-five pitchers on the roster and could provide sneaky value in 2026.
For dynasty, Cavalli’s value likely comes down to the development of his cutter. Cavalli’s knuckle-curve is a true plus offering. He has found consistent success with this against lefties and generated a whiff rate of 39.6% on it in 2025. However, as discussed above, Cavalli lacks a true pitch to attack righties with. For the first time in his career, Cavalli started throwing a cutter in 2025. He used it primarily against right-handed batters. If he can gain more consistency and feel for this pitch, that could take his game to the next level. If his struggles against righties persist, it is difficult to envision him ever becoming a difference maker for dynasty managers.
TLDR: Cavalli’s strong chase and whiff rate from 2025 represent upside at what should be a reasonable cost for fantasy baseball managers in 2026. His struggles against righties make the development of his cutter imperative for his long-term success.
Parker Messick, SP Cleveland Guardians
2025 Results
The Guardians sent Parker Messick to Triple-A to begin his third professional season. In 20 starts there, Messick posted a 3.47 ERA with a 29.1% strikeout rate. The team, likely believing they were out of the playoff race, gave Messick a promotion on August 20 to make his Major League debut. In nine starts with the team, Messick posted a 2.72 ERA, helping solidify Cleveland’s rotation and helping fuel a surge towards playoff contention. He has worked at least five innings in all but one of his starts. The strong start to Messick’s Major League career has dynasty managers excited about his future potential. Is the hype warranted? Let’s dig in.
The Positives
The best part of Messick’s Major League debut was his control. In his nine starts, Messick walked only 3.6% of the batters he faced. He threw a first-pitch strike over 70% of the time, helping him to control the count and keep batters off balance. This resulted in plenty of weak contact. Messick’s control instantly stood out as his best attribute. Another valuable asset was Messick’s deep arsenal. He throws five different pitches, all at least 13% of the time. He has a feel for each pitch in his arsenal and will throw any pitch in any count.
The Concerns
The biggest concern surrounding Messick as a prospect was the lack of plus stuff. This holds true after watching Messick make his Major League debut. Yes, he throws five pitches, but none of the five pitches stand out as great offerings. His changeup is the highest graded offering, but it only grades as a 101 in terms of Stuff+. Messick failed to generate many whiffs or chases against Major League batters. The low strikeout rate from his Major League debut is likely indicative of what fantasy managers should expect moving forward. In addition, Messick struggled against righties. While Messick held lefties to a .256/.273/.349 slash, righties slashed .302/.331/.431 against him.
2026 and Dynasty Outlook
The Guardians have fared well with pitchers of Messick’s build. They tend to get the most out of their arsenal while putting them in positions to win games. However, few pitchers have been able to provide consistent fantasy value in this situation. Without a true strikeout pitch, Messick offers a reliable floor, but very little upside. For 2026, Messick profiles as more of a high-end streamer, rather than a reliable starter for fantasy managers to count on.
The same holds true for dynasty. The difference is that there is significant hype to capitalize on. Messick is only 24 and found success in his first Major League stint. Now represents the perfect opportunity to sell high if you roster Messick. His dynasty value may never be higher than it is right now. He is a control specialist who pitches to contact with little strikeout upside.
TLDR: Messick’s control gives him a stable floor, but the lack of plus stuff limits his ceiling. This creates an intriguing sell-high window for dynasty managers who currently roster him.
2025 Results
Coming off a rocky 2024 season, many in the dynasty community were unsure exactly where to rank Luis Morales. The stuff had shown flashes, but inconsistencies kept him rotating in and out of top-100 lists. 2025 was a different story as Morales dominated both Double and Triple-A en route to a Major League debut. When Mason Miller was traded, there was some belief that the Athletics would fill his spot with the hard-throwing Morales. While the team limited his innings early on, they have stretched him back out as a full-time starter to end 2025. In nine starts, Morales pitched well with a 3.07 ERA. Despite his success, he seems to be flying under the radar in dynasty and redraft circles. Is this a player worth getting excited over? Time to find out.
The Positives
The most obvious positive is Morales’ pure stuff. The leading pitch for Morales is his four-seam fastball. The pitch sits comfortably in the upper 90s and gets over 15″ of iVB (just slightly above average). His sweeper is another plus offering and generates over 20″ of break away from right-handed batters. Major League batters posted a whiff rate of 35.8% against the pitch this season. There is a clear one-two punch already present in Morales’ profile. Morales also throws a changeup almost exclusively to lefties and found significant success with the pitch. Left-handed batters hit just .136 off the pitch.
The Concerns
If you pull up Morales’ Baseball Savant page, there is clearly some cause for concern. For starters, Morales throws his fastball over 50% of the time. A lack of extension, or true plus movement, can make the pitch hittable at times, especially if batters know it is coming. Also, despite a plus breaking pitch, opponents simply did not chase Morales out of the zone. His chase rate was nearly six percent below the Major League average, which led to his lackluster 21.3% strikeout rate. Besides his strikeout rate, Morales’ 4.46 FIP indicates that regression from his early success is likely. The final concern is that Morales still has a way to go in terms of command. He surrendered eight home runs in just 44 innings pitched. This could continue to be an issue while pitching his home games in Sacramento.
2026 and Dynasty Outlook
The issue for 2026 revolves around the home ballpark that Morales will need to pitch in. Sacramento has been a hitters’ paradise in 2025. That will not be changing next season. This becomes especially concerning when digging into Morales’ command issues. Morales was prone to mistakes with his fastballs. His bad pitch rate on all of his pitches was above 30%. The result was issues with the long ball amplified in the small home ballpark in which he pitches.
The long-term outlook for Morales is a bit more complicated. Yes, his current home ballpark situation is unfortunate, but that is not a long-term issue. His fastball and slider combination gives him substantial upside. However, there is a risk in his profile. His changeup is a below-average offering, and one he needs to help attack lefties. His four-seam fastball, while high velocity, lacks much movement. Developing another fastball variation (either a sinker or cutter) could help solidify his arsenal. Without these developments, he could find himself in a bullpen role long term.
TLDR: While there is upside in his profile, pitching in Sacramento decreases the appeal of drafting him in 2026. The development of his secondary offerings will be key to determining his long-term value and keeping him in a starter’s role.
