What is happening. This week’s edition of The List is going to be completely different from what you’re used to and will be in this format through the end of the 2018 season. I’ll be ranking the Top 100 (and a little more) this week per usual, but I will be attaching their estimated ROS schedule as well, to give you better idea of who has easy or hard schedules through the rest of the season.
But before we get started, there is one elephant in the room that made this really really difficult:
How do we rank strength of schedule?
I can’t give you a good answer. Last 30 days wOBA means the Blue Jays are a near top tier offense with the Reds near the bottom. Season wOBA doesn’t tell the whole tale either with teams hurt, injured, etc. Shorter samples get weighed heavily by a few blowouts here and there and suddenly I have no way to spit out a tiered list to make this easy.
I need to have some system for this as I’m going to be going over every pitcher’s estimated ROS schedule that matters for your fantasy team and I can’t just eye it out because that will get carved up in an instant.
So I’ve elected to go the extra mile for y’all. Here is a quick table of my opponent rankings ROS, with an exception being made for @COL/COL as they are wildly different teams outside of the massively helpful Coors Field. I’ve sorted teams into five tiers of Elite, Strong, Average, Weak, and Poor.
| Elite Offense | @COL | HOU | NYY | BOS | CLE | CHC | OAK |
| Strong Offense | LAD | ATL | MIL | SEA | STL | ARI | |
| Average Offense | WSH | TEX | PIT | TBR | LAA | CIN | |
| Weak Offense | PHI | MIN | SFG | COL | TOR | ||
| Poor Offense | SDP | MIA | NYM | DET | KCR | CHW | BAL |
You probably have qualms with these assessments as I may have overlooked certain elements here and there, but I think we can all generally agree with these. If you don’t, make slight adjustments to the following List as the estimated schedules aren’t changing.
With that out of the way, I’m going to shoot out this massive table for you. There are a few things you have to keep in mind when reading this new edition of The List:
- These schedules are not set in stone. Seriously, I tried my best to estimate this but man there is just so much up in the air
- I will be updating this every Monday until the end of the season, just like The List normally operates.
- The List is in order of who I’d want to own today for all future starts the rest of the way. I’m putting less weight on the final start of each pitcher as A) your H2H playoffs may be over and B) that final week is a mix of call-ups, setting up for playoffs, limiting innings, etc.
- And while I am putting less weight on that final start, I am favoring pitchers with seven starts over six, like Jacob deGrom, Charlie Morton, Stephen Strasburg, etc. It might not come to fruition as mentioned in the previous point, but I still need to give them bonus points.
- I did my best to guess return dates for injured pitchers. In the end, I don’t know and the guy who says he knows, yeah he doesn’t know.
| Rank | Pitcher | 1st Start | 2nd Start | 3rd Start | 4th Start | 5th Start | 6th Start | 7th Start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob Degrom | @CHC | @LAD | PHI | @BOS | @PHI | ATL | MIA |
| 2 | Gerrit Cole | OAK | LAA | @BOS | @DET | SEA | @TOR | @BAL |
| 3 | Aaron Nola | WSH | @MIA | @NYM | MIA | @ATL | @COL | ATL |
| 4 | Max Scherzer | @PHI | STL | CHC | @ATL | NYM | MIA | – |
| 5 | Clayton Kershaw | ARI | NYM | @CIN | @STL | SDP | @SFG | – |
| 6 | Justin Verlander | LAA | MIN | @DET | ARI | LAA | @BAL | – |
| 7 | Carlos Carrasco | MIN | TBR | @TOR | @TBR | CHW | @CHW | @KCR |
| 8 | Patrick Corbin | @SFG | @LAD | ATL | @COL | CHC | COL | @SDP |
| 9 | Noah Syndergaard | @CHC | @SFG | PHI | MIA | @PHI | @WSH | MIA |
| 10 | Corey Kluber | TBR | KCR | @TBR | DET | BOS | @KCR | – |
| 11 | Blake Snell | @CLE | BAL | OAK | @TEX | NYY | TOR | – |
| 12 | Zack Greinke | @LAD | ATL | @COL | @HOU | COL | @SDP | – |
| 13 | Luis Severino | DET | @OAK | @MIN | TOR | BAL | @TBR | – |
| 14 | Charlie Morton | OAK | LAA | @BOS | ARI | SEA | @TOR | @BAL |
| 15 | Jack Flaherty | PIT | CIN | @DET | LAD | @ATL | MIL | @CHC |
| 16 | David Price | MIA | @ATL | HOU | NYM | @CLE | BAL | – |
| 17 | Mike Clevinger | MIN | KCR | @TOR | DET | BOS | @CHW | – |
| 18 | Jameson Taillon | @ATL | CIN | @STL | KCR | MIL | @CIN | – |
| 19 | J.A. Happ | DET | @OAK | @MIN | BOS | BAL | @BOS | – |
| 20 | Mike Foltynewicz | CHC | BOS | @ARI | WSH | PHI | @NYM | – |
| 21 | Stephen Strasburg | @PHI | MIL | CHC | @PHI | @MIA | MIA | @COL |
| 22 | Madison Bumgarner | ARI | @COL | @MIL | COL | @STL | SDP | – |
| 23 | Miles Mikolas | PIT | @WSH | @DET | LAD | @ATL | MIL | – |
| 24 | Walker Buehler | @TEX | ARI | @COL | @STL | COL | @ARI | @SFG? |
| 25 | Jon Gray | @LAA | @SDP | LAD | ARI | @LAD | PHI | WSH |
| 26 | Masahiro Tanaka | CHW | DET | @SEA | @MIN | BOS | @TBR | @BOS |
| 27 | Zack Wheeler | @SFG | @LAD | MIA | @BOS | @WSH | ATL | – |
| 28 | Cole Hamels | NYM | @MIL | @WSH | CIN | @ARI | PIT | STL |
| 29 | German Marquez | @SDP | SFG | ARI | @SFG | @ARI | PHI | – |
| 30 | Kyle Hendricks | @PHI | @WSH | MIL | @ARI | @CHW | STL | – |
| 31 | Kyle Freeland | @LAA | SFG | LAD | @SFG | @LAD | PHI | WSH |
| 32 | Kyle Gibson | @CLE | @TEX | KCR | @KCR | @DET | DET | CHW |
| 33 | Rick Porcello | @CHW | @ATL | TOR | @NYY | @CLE | NYY | – |
| 34 | Rich Hill | ARI | NYM | @CIN | @STL | SDP | @ARI | – |
| 35 | Jake Arrieta | WSH | @MIA | WSH | MIA | @ATL | @COL | – |
| 36 | Luis Castillo | MIL | @PIT | SDP | @CHC | @MIA | KCR | – |
| 37 | Alex Wood | @TEX | NYM | @COL | @STL | COL | @ARI | – |
| 38 | Nick Pivetta | CHC | @MIA | WSH | NYM | @ATL | @COL | – |
| 39 | Jose Berrios | @TEX | KCR | NYY | @DET | @OAK | CHW | – |
| 40 | Dallas Keuchel | OAK | MIN | @BOS | ARI | LAA | @TOR | – |
| 41 | Shane Bieber | TBR | @TOR | @TBR | CHW | BOS | @KCR | – |
| 42 | Robbie Ray | @LAD | SDP | @COL | @HOU | COL | LAD | – |
| 43 | Zack Godley | @SFG | SDP | ATL | @HOU | CHC | LAD | – |
| 44 | Carlos Rodon | @NYY | BOS | LAA | @KCR | @CLE | CLE | @MIN |
| 45 | Nathan Eovaldi | @CHW | HOU | TOR | @NYY | BAL | NYY | – |
| 46 | Michael Kopech | BOS | DET | @KCR | @CLE | CHC | @MIN | – |
| 47 | Clay Buchholz | @SFG | @LAD | ATL | @COL | CHC | LAD | @SDP |
| 48 | Joe Musgrove | @STL | CIN | @STL | @MIL | MIL | @CHC | – |
| 49 | Trevor Cahill | @HOU | NYY | TEX | @TBR | MIN | @SEA | – |
| 50 | Zach Eflin | WSH | CHC | @NYM | MIA | NYM | @COL | ATL |
| 51 | Tyler Glasnow | @ATL | @TOR | CLE | OAK | @TOR | NYY | – |
| 52 | CC Sabathia | CHW | @OAK | @SEA | TOR | BAL | @TBR | – |
| 53 | Kevin Gausman | PIT | @ARI | @SFG | STL | PHI | @PHI | – |
| 54 | Mike Fiers | SEA | NYY | @BAL | LAA | MIN | @LAA | – |
| 55 | Tanner Roark | MIL | STL | @PHI | @ATL | NYM | @COL | – |
| 56 | Anibal Sanchez | PIT | BOS | @SFG | WSH | PHI | @NYM | – |
| 57 | Derek Holland | NYM | @MIL | ATL | @SDP | SDP | LAD | – |
| 58 | Dereck Rodriguez | ARI | @COL | ATL | COL | @STL | LAD | – |
| 59 | Dylan Bundy | @KCR | @TBR | CHW | TOR | @BOS | HOU | – |
| 60 | Jon Lester | NYM | @PHI | @WSH | MIL | @ARI | PIT | STL |
| 61 | Lance Lynn | CHW | DET | @SEA | TOR | BOS | @TBR | @BOS |
| 62 | Joey Lucchesi | SEA | @ARI | @CIN | TEX | @LAD | ARI | – |
| 63 | Michael Fulmer | @NYY | @CHW | HOU | @CLE | KCR | @MIN | – |
| 64 | Andrew Heaney | @HOU | @TEX | TEX | SEA | @HOU | TEX | – |
| 65 | Chris Archer | @ATL | MIA | @STL | KCR | @CHC | @CIN | – |
| 66 | Vince Velasquez | CHC | @NYM | WSH | NYM | @ATL | ATL | – |
| 67 | Sean Newcomb | TBR | BOS | @ARI | WSH | STL | @NYM | @PHI |
| 68 | Junior Guerra | @CIN | @WSH | SFG | PIT | CIN | @STL | – |
| 69 | Jose Quintana | @PHI | @MIL | MIL | CIN | @CHW | PIT | – |
| 70 | Jhoulys Chacin | @WSH | CHC | @CHC | CIN | @PIT | DET | – |
| 71 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | ARI | @COL | @CIN | COL | SDP | @SFG | – |
| 72 | Matt Harvey | MIL | @PIT | SDP | @CHC | @MIL | KCR | – |
| 73 | Matthew Boyd | @KCR | @CHW | STL | @CLE | KCR | @MIN | – |
| 74 | Tyler Anderson | @SDP | LAD | ARI | @LAD | @ARI | WSH | – |
| 75 | Mike Minor | LAD | LAA | @LAA | @SDP | SEA | @SEA | – |
| 76 | Freddy Peralta | @CIN | CHC | SFG | PIT | @PIT | @STL | – |
| 77 | Steven Matz | @SFG | PHI | MIA | @PHI | @WSH | MIA | – |
| 78 | Pablo Lopez | TOR | @PIT | @NYM | WSH | @WSH | @NYM | – |
| 79 | Jakob Junis | DET | @CLE | @MIN | MIN | @PIT | @CIN | CLE |
| 80 | Trevor Richards | @BOS | PHI | @NYM | @PHI | CIN | @WSH | – |
| 81 | Jaime Barria | @HOU | @TEX | TEX | SEA | @HOU | OAK | – |
| 82 | Gio Gonzalez | @PHI | STL | CHC | @ATL | NYM | MIA | – |
| 83 | Trevor Williams | @STL | CIN | MIA | @MIL | MIL | @CHC | – |
| 84 | Danny Duffy | DET | @CLE | CHW | MIN | @DET | @CIN | – |
| 85 | Sam Gaviglio | @BAL | @MIA | CLE | @BOS | @BAL | TBR | @TBR |
| 86 | Anthony Desclafani | MIL | @STL | SDP | LAD | @MIL | @MIA | PIT |
| 87 | Jake Odorizzi | @CLE | @HOU | NYY | @KCR | @OAK | DET | – |
| 88 | Austin Gomber | CIN | @WSH | PIT | LAD | SFG | @CHC | – |
| 89 | Wei-Yin Chen | TOR | @PIT | @NYM | WSH | CIN | @NYM | – |
| 90 | Jacob Nix | SEA | COL | @CIN | TEX | @LAD | @SFG | – |
| 91 | Chase Anderson | @WSH | SFG | @CHC | CIN | @STL | DET | – |
| 92 | Edwin Jackson | @HOU | SEA | TEX | @TBR | LAA | @SEA | – |
| 93 | Lucas Giolito | BOS | DET | @KCR | @BAL | CHC | @MIN | – |
| 94 | Mike Leake | @OAK? | NYY? | @LAA? | @HOU? | OAK? | TEX? | – |
| 95 | Marco Gonzales | @SDP | BAL | NYY | @LAA | @TEX | OAK | – |
| 96 | Aaron Sanchez | @MIA | TBR | @BOS | @NYY | TBR | HOU | – |
| 97 | Daniel Poncedeleon | CIN | @DET | PIT | @ATL | SFG | @CHC | – |
| 98 | Jose Urena | @BOS | PHI | @PIT | @PHI | CIN | @WSH | – |
| 99 | Wade Leblanc | @OAK | BAL | SDP | @HOU | @TEX | TEX | – |
| 100 | Julio Teheran | TBR | PIT | @ARI | @SFG | STL | PHI | @PHI |
| 101 | Ivan Nova | @STL | @ATL | MIA | @MIL | KCR | @CHC | @CIN |
| 102 | Reynaldo Lopez | @NYY | DET | LAA | @BAL | CHC | CLE | – |
| 103 | Brian Johnson | MIA | @CHW | HOU | NYM | @NYY | BAL | – |
| 104 | Andrew Suarez | NYM | @COL | ATL | @SDP | @STL | LAD | – |
| 105 | John Gant | PIT | @WSH | PIT | LAD | SFG | MIL | – |
| 106 | Alex Cobb | TOR | @SEA | OAK | CHW | @NYY | HOU | – |
| 107 | Brett Anderson | @HOU | SEA | TEX | @BAL | LAA | @SEA | @LAA |
| 108 | Felix Pena | @HOU | @CHW | TEX | @OAK | @HOU | OAK | – |
| 109 | Homer Bailey | @STL | @PIT | LAD | @CHC | @MIA | PIT | – |
| 110 | Chris Sale | – | – | TOR? | NYM? | @CLE? | NYY? | – |
| 111 | James Paxton | – | @OAK? | NYY? | @LAA? | @HOU? | OAK? | – |
| 112 | Eduardo Rodriguez | – | @CWS? | HOU? | TOR | @NYY? | BAL? | NYY? |
| 113 | Tyler Skaggs | – | – | – | @OAK? | @HOU? | OAK? | – |
| 114 | Sean Manaea | – | – | – | @BAL? | @TBR? | MIN? | @LAA? |
| 115 | Marcus Stroman | – | – | CLE? | @NYY? | @BAL? | HOU? | TBR? |
Notes
- There is a ton to talk about and I’m going save the time of getting this out sooner instead of detailing multiple pitchers in these notes. Looking forward to diving into all this info with everyone in the comments and on Reddit.
8 pitchers with favorable ROS schedules
- Carlos Carrasco – (MIN, TBR, @TOR, @TBR, CHW, @CHW, @KCR)
- Shane Bieber – (TBR, @TOR, @TBR, CHW, BOS, @KCR)
- Walker Buehler – (@TEX, ARI, @COL, @STL, COL, @ARI, @SFG)
- Jon Gray – (@LAA, @SDP, LAD, ARI, @LAD, PHI, WSH
- Kevin Gausman – (PIT, @ARI, @SFG, STL, PHI, @PHI)
- Junior Guerra – (@CIN, @WSH, SFG, PIT, CIN, @STL)
- Steven Matz – (@SFG, PHI, MIA, @PHI, @WSH, MIA)
- Wei-Yin Chen – (TOR, @PIT, @NYM, WSH, CIN, @NYM)
- Jose Quintana – (@PHI, @MIL, MIL, CIN, @CHW, PIT)
8 pitchers with poor ROS schedules
- J.A. Happ – (DET, @OAK, @MIN, BOS, BAL, @BOS)
- Michael Fulmer – (@NYY, @CHW, HOU, @CLE, KCR, @MIN)
- Jake Odorizzi – (@CLE, @HOU, NYY, @KCR, @OAK, DET)
- Joe Musgrove – (@STL, CIN, @STL, @MIL, MIL, @CHC)
- Zack Greinke (@LAD, ATL, @COL, @HOU, COL, @SDP)
- Carlos Rodon – (@NYY, BOS, LAA, @KCR, @CLE, CLE, @MIN)
- Rick Porcello – (@CHW, @ATL, TOR, @NYY, @CLE, NYY)
- Tyler Glasnow – (@ATL, @TOR, CLE, OAK, @TOR, NYY)
