Welcome to the PLV Power Report! Here, we examine hitter performance by utilizing Power+, a PLV+ metric that indexes a player’s power based on the characteristics of the pitch, i.e., count, location, velocity, induced vertical break, height-adjusted vertical approach angle, and other factors. Essentially, we’re searching for players with upside who are adding power based on the expectation of the individual pitches they see.
For example, say a hitter hits a well-located fastball on the outside corner that might typically coax a weak line drive, but instead, they belt a home run the opposite way; they’ll get a much better power grade for that outcome. Conversely, if that hitter sees a hanging changeup over the heart of the plate, or another pitch that would normally be crushed, and instead pops up to short, they’ll get a much lower score for the outcome. The power metric is unique because it provides a more intuitive way to assess player performance by accounting for the quality of each pitch they see. In other words, it’s a good way to check if a player is over- or underperforming by adding context. Note that Power+, like PLV+ metrics, is normalized to 100 and generally becomes more meaningful after around 75 BBE (batted ball events).
If you’re new to the PLV metrics, you can find Nick’s primer here.
This week, we will check out some hitters who haven’t met expectations, whether it’s a lack of growth as a former prospect or potentially injury-related. However, there is still time for a strong finish. Let’s try to read the tea leaves with Power+.
Note: PLV metrics are current through Sunday, August 3rd.
It has been pretty remarkable watching Betts be a full-time shortstop this season. That certainly can’t be easy, especially at 32, after years in the outfield. Unfortunately, we have to dig into his offensive stats, and they aren’t pretty. He entered Monday, hitting .233 with an 85 wRC+, both career lows. Excluding 2020, 18 home runs is the fewest home runs Betts has hit across a full season, which he did during his first full season of 2015. Last year, he barely matched that mark with 19, 20 fewer than he hit in 2023. OK, fine, you got me. He played 36 fewer games last season than in 2023. Still, Betts’ downward trend continues as he is on pace for a new career low with just 11 homers through 102 games this year. Sure enough, his Power+ has plummeted from 100 to 86, about a standard deviation below the average, and recent trends haven’t hinted at a rebound.
I’m sure there will be plenty of talk this offseason about Betts being on the back slope of his career. Maybe that’s true. Still, he is the last guy I would want to bet against. And I can’t help but wonder about the mystery ailment he ran into during the Dodgers’ Japan series in March. I’ve already purchased my buy-low tickets for 2026. But as far as this year goes, a sudden turnaround in the last two months seems unlikely.
A season after totaling 14 OAA, 97th percentile according to Statcast, a league-leading 16 errors have put Volpe’s defensive abilities in doubt. Meanwhile, his tepid offense has further drawn the ire of disgruntled Yankee fans as he was hitting just .225 with nine home runs and 98 wRC+ through July 1st. His prospect scouting report as a power-hitting shortstop seemed almost laughable. However, his bat has suddenly taken flight with five longballs and a .944 OPS over the last 15 days (13 games). One of his dingers was a career-long 452-foot shot just to the right of straightaway center. I’m reminded of the scene in Ghostbusters 2 when Cheech quips, “Well, better late than never,” upon seeing the ghost of the Titanic pull up at the dock in NYC.
Volpe hit .228 while running an 85 wRC+ through his first two seasons. Last year, he cut his K rate just over five ticks, but seemingly at the expense of his ability to drive the ball (91 Power+ last season). Year three felt like the make-or-break point. Could he be an above-average big-league hitter? For a while, the answer seemed definitive: no. However, he now has 17 home runs, tied with Willy Adames and Dansby Swanson for fourth among qualified SS. Of course, the recent results could be a mirage, but at the very least, it re-establishes the possibility of him becoming an impactful hitter.
Vientos hadn’t gone yard since May 28th (!!) before slugging a grand slam in last Monday’s 7-6 loss against the Padres. To say 2025 has been a disappointment for the 25-year-old righty would be an understatement. One year after bopping 27 home runs across 111 games, he has just seven in 78 games. His Power+ has tumbled from 126 to 99 this season. However, the recent results, including an 11-game hitting streak, could provide a glimmer of hope.
Thank goodness for the 29 stolen bases. Otherwise, Robert Jr.’s fantasy value would be hanging by a thread. In fairness, we know he is capable of better things. Nonetheless, a .222 batting average and 83 wRC+ over the past two seasons combined (781 PAs) is starting to cast a shadow on the back of his baseball card. Yes, it is an excuse, but I wonder how much the lack of a decent supporting cast is hurting him. Regardless, his 107 Power+ is on par with last year’s 105. That is to say, I wouldn’t rule out a power surge, and his recent results (see below) have been promising. However, his 84 Contact Ability+ portends continued pain in the batting average department.
McLain was sensational two years ago, hitting .290 despite an elevated strikeout rate of 28.5%. However, he has struggled mightily since losing a year to shoulder surgery, with his 81 wRC+ tied for eighth-worst among qualified hitters. There is at least some good news. Remember his strikeout issue? That’s actually been slightly better as his contact ability+ has increased from 82 to 87. However, he is just not impacting the baseball the same way he did as a rookie with his Power+ dipping from 116 to 97. You almost have to wonder how his shoulder may be affecting his swing. On that note, his prognosis could certainly improve with another healthy offseason under his belt. But, yeah, things aren’t looking great at the moment.
OK, Vaughn isn’t a bust in that we weren’t expecting much from him this year, but more so relative to expectations (or hopes) a few years ago. The 27-year-old righty hitting 1B/DH entered the season having reached 20 home runs once (21 two years ago) while toting a career 102 wRC+ over 2,258 PAs. That’s probably not what the White Sox envisioned when they picked him third overall six summers ago. His disappointing tenure compelled the Sox to flip him to the Brewers for cash considerations and back-end-of-the-rotation righty Aaron Civale in June. The Brewers promoted him from Triple-A Nashville on July 7th to replace Rhys Hoskins, and he has since become one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Over the past 15 days (11 games), he has hit .364 with four home runs and a 1.065 OPS. Vaughn, perhaps surprisingly, earned a 108 Power+ last year. He has been even better this season at 115, and if the recent results are any indication, he might end up being one of the biggest post-hype breakouts we have seen in a while.
The 34-year-old righty entered the season as a reliable slugger, having banged 95 home runs over the past three years, 11th in baseball. However, success hasn’t followed him to Houston, his 94 wRC+ being his lowest since 2021. Walker’s 104 Power+ isn’t too bad, but pales compared to last year’s 118. He has earned solid results lately with an .831 OPS over his last 14 games. However, his Power+ has trended back toward average-ish following a spike back in June.
