With 120 teams and 5,000+ players spread through four levels (not to mention the Dominican Summer League and the Rookie Complex leagues in Arizona and Florida), identifying the next prospect breakout can be difficult. If you wait until end-of-season wrap-ups, a prospect may get too much coverage and no longer be available.
You can scout stat lines all year, but that can be tedious, and it’s difficult to keep an eye on every tweet and post. We may have renamed this column but fear not, intrepid dynasty league manager, this is still THE place to find your potential prospect diamonds in the rough.
For those unfamiliar, this is a weekly column where I’ll select four prospects (typically 2 hitters and 2 pitchers) who performed outstandingly in the prior week. Not only will you get a name, but also we’ll dive into what powered their results and where their future value stands. “But,” you may think to yourself, “what makes this column so different than any of the countless other blurbs, rundowns, and general prospect lists that are published?” Glad you asked!
First and foremost, this column is dedicated to the deep dynasty manager. If you’re in a 18 team league, or rostering 30+ minor leaguers, then this is your spot.
Secondly, and I don’t want to honk my horn (toot toot) but in year 1, we had a pretty solid track record of recognizing some names that have risen in value entering this season including: Kyle Manzardo, Yainer Diaz, Evan Carter, Justin Dirden, and Will Benson.
With that said, let’s get to this week’s prospects…
Player of the Week: 3B/RF Coby Mayo, BAL, AA
Stats: (7 games) 13-26, 3 HR, 4 doubles, 5 RBI, 7 runs, 0 SBs
Mayo had a bit of pedigree when he was selected in the 4th round of the abbreviated 2020 draft by Baltimore, coming from renowned baseball powerhouse Stoneman Douglas High in Florida. The raw power was already a calling card but as is always the case with this type of profile, the question would be whether Mayo could mature into becoming a hitter or remain a slugger.
MLB's No. 93 prospect (@Orioles) Coby Mayo smacks his second homer in three games!
That's his 14th tater of the year for the @BowieBaysox. pic.twitter.com/fVT6fiUDVf
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) June 24, 2023
In a system that’s already lousy with dynamic hitters at every level, Mayo may be pound for pound the best hitter based on his performance. Outside of the end of his 2022 season at AA Bowie, there’s yet to be a stop that has posed much of a hurdle, and in his 2023 repeat of the level Mayo has simply mashed.
What’s impressive is that for someone as young as he is with so much power, he’s yet to show any issues with swing & miss. From Low A to now, his highest SwStr has been 11.3%. Mayo’s discipline can mostly be distilled to the fact that he doesn’t swing often (39% Swing rate) but when he does, he’s making good contact and posts above average EVs.
While there’s still some question around his defensive future (more due to organizational need/depth than Mayo’s own ability), there’s little doubt that he should be anticipated to arrive sometime in 2024.
Honorable Mention: 1B/OF Abimelec Ortiz, TEX, Low A/High A
Stats: (5 games) 12-21, 3 HR, 3 doubles, 8 RBI, 8 runs, 0 SBs
Come for the great name, stay for the impressive game. Similar to Mayo, power was never in question with Ortiz, but his hit tool was viewed as being the make or break part of his game. After flashing that plus power (22 combined HRs) and fringe hit tool (124Ks in 133 combined games) between the DSL and Low A in his first two pro seasons, he’s seemingly turned a significant corner this year, especially with his promotion to High A.
In 29 games at Low A, Ortiz posted an .ISO of .297 but matched with a K rate of 29.8%. But in the 20 games he’s played at High A Hickory, he’s put up an even more impressive .341 ISO while cutting the K rate all the way down to 21.8%.
If Ortiz is able to maintain this hitter profile (plus game power with a league average or better K rate) that’s generally enough to clear the bar as a corner bat. Add in that in limited PAs vs. LHPs, he has an .OPS over .800 and Ortiz looks like a valuable add for all but the most shallow of dynasty leagues.
Pitcher of the Week: SP Robert Gasser, MIL, AAA
Stats: (2 starts) 12.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 hits, 1 BB, 15 Ks
You’ll likely be hearing about Gasser in the next few weeks, as he’s expected to be the next rookie pitcher to make his MLB debut this season. Unlike many of his 2023 cohort, Gasser’s value is less in his stuff and more-so in his general pitchability. Armed with six pitches that he throws consistently, Gasser has shown an ability to change speeds, limit hard contact and pitch efficiently; almost half of starts have gone into the sixth inning or longer. Likewise, only 4 of his starts have gone 4 innings or less.
Unable to provide video of his starts this past week
Most fantasy managers will shy away from such a finesse profile. A 4-seam fastball that averages 92 and tops out around 94 typically doesn’t move the needle, but Gasser’s ability to mix his repertoire so well and generate above average results (27.6% CSW, 13% SwStr) points to a pitcher who can succeed at the major league level.
Given Milwaukee’s rotation, there’s a decent chance that Gasser sees more time out of the bullpen but even there he could provide value as a bullpen ace. Either way, there’s little left on the board as far as impact arms for 2023, if you’re in redraft, you should be ready to pounce on Gasser if he gets a soft landing spot for his debut.
In dynasty, this is the type of arm you have at the back-end of your rotation that can consistently keep you clear of innings limits, while providing good ratios throughout the season. It’s not the prettiest work but it’s efficient and effective.
Honorable Mention: SP Tyler Stuart, NYM, High A
Stats: (1 starts) 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 hits, 1 BB, 13 Ks
While recent attention has turned to rising Mets prospect Christian Scott, Stuart is making a case not to be left out. Drafted out of Southern Miss in this past MLB draft, Stuart presents the type of undercover collegiate reliever/spot starter profile that the best teams convert into surprisingly adept prospects.
Armed with a classic “drop & drive” delivery, a 3/4 arm slot, and 6’9 frame allowing for optimal extension, Stuart is reaping the rewards with a 34% CSW and 17.4% SwStr. It’s a fascinating start for an under-looked prospect, and it’ll be worth watching if Stuart can maintain this level of performance.