With 120 teams and 5,000+ players spread through four levels (not to mention the Dominican Summer League and the Rookie Complex leagues in Arizona and Florida), identifying the next prospect breakout can be difficult.
If you wait until end-of-season wrap-ups, a prospect may get too much coverage and no longer be available. You can scout stat lines all year, but that can be tedious, and it’s difficult to keep an eye on every tweet and post.
We may have renamed this column but fear not intrepid dynasty league manager, this is still THE place to find your potential prospect diamonds in the rough.
For those unfamiliar, this is a weekly column where I’ll select four prospects (typically 2 hitters and 2 pitchers) who performed outstandingly in the prior week. Not only will you get a name, but also we’ll dive into what powered their results and where their future value stands.
“But,” you may think to yourself, “what makes this column so different than any of the countless other blurbs, rundowns, and general prospect lists that are published?” Glad you asked!
First and foremost, this column is dedicated to the deep dynasty manager. If you’re in an 18-team league, or rostering 30+ minor leaguers, then this is your spot.
Secondly, and I don’t want to honk my horn (toot toot) but in year 1, we had a pretty solid track record of recognizing some names that have risen in value entering this season including: Kyle Manzardo, Yainer Diaz, Evan Carter, Justin Dirden, and Will Benson.
With that said, let’s get to this week’s prospects…
Player of the Week: 3B Jack Brannigan, PIT, High A
Stats: (6 games) 11-27, 6 HR, 1 double, 13 RBI, 8 runs, 0 SBs
There may have been some doubt about Brannigan’s prospect value, being drafted from Notre Dame as a two-way player with rawness on both sides in 2022. But Brannigan has been showing incredible power and a rapidly improving hit tool, in his second pro season.
Jack Brannigan HOMER!
Hoppers: 2 | Tourists: 4 pic.twitter.com/Ze4RdpFjRI
— Greensboro Grasshoppers (@GSOHoppers) August 6, 2023
Brannigan repeated Low A to begin 2023 and improved his batting average by 40 points along with boosting his OBP by almost 70. The incredible power showed up in an ISO of .198 and a 90th percentile EV of 103.7MPH.
At this point, the conversion to position player is complete and it appears that there’s enough footwork for him to remain at third, which is helpful to his fantasy profile. What may be the most important stat, however, lies in his underlying plate discipline.
At both seasons of Low A and now at High A, Brannigan sports some high K rates (30.2% currently at Greensboro), but a look closer at Bradenton in 2023 shows Brannigan had an excellent chase rate of 24% and 81% in-zone contact rate. That starts to paint the picture of a college bat that may be slightly too patient in taking borderline strikes but thumping pitches in the zone.
While we don’t have all of that data for High A, it is important to note that SwStr and walk rate have moved in negative directions by about 7 points each. Could this be a red flag or simply the next roadblock for a rapidly developing hitter?
Honorable Mention: OF Jakob Marsee, SDP, High A
Stats: (6 games) 11-22, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 6 runs, 5 SBs
Marsee isn’t even the most notable SD prospect with the initials JM; he’s overshadowed in a system featuring Nathan Martorella and Ethan Salas as well. But this lower-ranked prospect shows some advanced skills that could make him a surprise value in dynasty leagues.
As it currently stands, Marsee is a backup OF/strong-side platoon that could be a cheap provider of SBs, runs, and OBP on the right team. Although, if the power can start to project around 12-14 HRs, there’s more than enough speed (41 stolen bases and counting) alongside elite bat-to-ball skills (86% contact, 5.5% SwStr) to really dream.
Pitcher of the Week: SP Owen Murphy, ATL, Low A
Stats: (1 start) 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 hits, 1 BB, 8 Ks
Spencer Strider. Spencer Strider. Spencer Strider. No, Murphy doesn’t have any significant similarities to the potential Cy Young Award winner but prospect writers are now professionally obligated to mention Strider when writing about any Atlanta pitching prospect. So there you go.
No. 5 @Braves prospect Owen Murphy takes a no-hit bid into the 7th inning, racking up 8 K's along the way for the @GreenJackets: pic.twitter.com/YWrUrqTMkw
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 12, 2023
In all seriousness, Murphy has had a prototypical up-and-down first full season as a pro after being selected 20th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft. While Murphy’s walk numbers are perfectly pedestrian (9%), he has shown some wildness with 11 HBPs and wild pitches combined.
What Murphy lacks in fastball velo, however, he makes up with two breaking balls that are legit swing-and-miss pitches. The curveball has good movement with room to be optimized and the cutter also works well in tandem with Murphy’s fastball. Looking at the raw numbers, Murphy has thrown strikes almost 2:1 without being hammered.
Recently, Murphy has put things together masterfully in back-to-back starts, generating 17 Ks and a .108 BAA. Finishing out the season on an upswing will go a long one with Murphy’s value as he eyes High A and subsequent levels.
Honorable Mention: SP Logan Henderson, MIL, ACL, Low A
Stats: (1 start) 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 hits, 0 BB, 8 Ks
Oh, look, the Brewers with another low-cost, high-potential arm … While everyone was catching Misiorowski fever, Milwaukee was quietly bringing along this former 2021 draft pick from McLennan Community College.
Between the lack of pedigree and the immediate age-to-level concerns, it’s likely that Henderson is still available for you to pounce but that window could be rapidly closing.
While he is technically older than you’d like in Low A, he missed much of 2022 with what’s been described as “non-Tommy John surgery” to his pitching elbow. So 2023 is really a make-up year for Henderson and the make-up he has.
He’s physically maxed out at 6 feet-ish and just under 200lbs and his fastball is unlikely to add any speed, settling in the mid-90s. But Henderson is a strike thrower (53% strikes thrown) and shows an early ability for whiffs (16.6% SwStr). There’s reliever concern based on his fastball velo and limited pitch mix, which consists of fastball, change, and curve at a distant third. But if any team can mold a solid MLB pitcher from clay, it’s the Brewers.