There’s so much to like about Connelly Early as a pitcher. He got his first call-up last season and immediately displayed the arsenal and strategy of a seasoned veteran. Furthermore, he has adopted several modern pitching philosophies to make the most of his talents. At the forefront of these, Early has built a large array of pitches to pick and choose from and use to their fullest potential by deploying them in advantageous situations. Depending on the handedness of the hitter in the box, you see very different versions of Early on the mound.
The Left Side
| Type | Usage vs L | Velo | IVB/HB | Spin (Active Spin) | Spin Dir. | VAA (HAVAA) | Release Point (V/H/Arm°) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 40.9% | 92.2 | 8.1”/18.7” | 2181 (90.6%) | 10:18 | -5.6° (+0.7°) | 5.36’/2.84’/28.6° |
| 4-Seam | 21.2% | 93.8 | 16.5”/10.4” | 2329 (90.2%) | 10:30 | -4.8° (+1.2°) | 5.55’/2.56’/33.1° |
| Sweeper | 21.2% | 81.9 | -1.5”/-13.2” | 2412 (42.2%) | 4:13 | -7.8° (-0.9°) | 5.36’/2.87’/26.0° |
| Slider | 10.6% | 86.7 | 6.0”/0.2” | 2289 (34.8%) | 10:49 | -6.4° (+0.2°) | 5.39’/2.84’/27.6° |
Against left-handed hitters, Early wields a modified version of the ever-popular three-fastball mix and a sweeper. His sinker, while not the depthiest of pitches, has so much arm-side run bending back in on a lefty’s hands that they cannot get the barrel to it. It doesn’t matter if you’re not swinging on top of a sinker if you’re hitting it halfway down the bat.
This is compounded when taking his 4-seamer into account, which plays very well off of his sinker, coming out of his hand at similar spin directions and active spin percentage while having 8.4” of IVB separation. With that said, his 4-seam is good enough to stand on its own.
While it lacks truly exceptional movement, he cuts it enough from his three-quarters arm slot to create slightly above-average IVB from a lower-than-average release, giving it a flatter VAA. He also gains the inherent advantage of being left-handed and throwing 94 with decent shape. All of this comes together to make a fastball that can get whiffs at a respectable clip.
His sweeper is used near-exclusively against lefties for the same reason that his sinker is his primary fastball against them. It’s a pitch built for these same-handed matchups. Pitches with a lot of horizontal movement tend to perform better when facing hitters with the same handedness as the pitcher. Early’s sweeper isn’t elite from a stuff perspective as it hovers around the league average marks in velocity and movement. But it can play like a plus pitch because of when he chooses to throw it.
Lastly, I mentioned earlier that he has a “modified version of a three-fastball mix”. You may have noticed the last pitch in the table was listed as a slider. The pitching nerds amongst you might have figured out that I’m treating his slider as a cutter. It falls into a weird in-between of not having traditional slider depth, but lacking true cutter velocity. It has spin characteristics similar to pitches like Cole Sands’ cutter and Germán Márquez’s slider.
For pitches that land in this space, I tend to classify them by how they fit into the arsenal. In Early’s case, this pitch makes a bridge between his fastballs and his sweeper, making it apt for a workload traditionally assigned to cutters in sinker-sweeper arsenals. He also rarely uses this pitch in 2-strike situations, suggesting it’s not filling a slider’s role in his mix.
The Right Side
| Type | Usage vs R | Velo | IVB/HB | Spin (Active Spin) | Spin Dir. | VAA (HAVAA) | Release Point (V/H/Arm°) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam | 37.1% | 93.8 | 16.5”/10.4” | 2329 (90.2%) | 10:30 | -4.8° (+1.2°) | 5.55’/2.56’/33.1° |
| Changeup | 26.5% | 83.3 | -3.6”/11.6” | 1248 (84.0%) | 9:14 | -8.2° (-0.9°) | 5.46’/2.84’/28.6° |
| Curveball | 16.2% | 79.8 | -9.5”/-10.2” | 2397 (68.2%) | 4:43 | -9.3° (-2.0°) | 5.58’/2.71’/34.3° |
| Slider | 10.1% | 86.7 | 6.0”/0.2” | 2289 (34.8%) | 10:49 | -6.4° (+0.2°) | 5.39’/2.84’/27.6° |
| Sinker | 8.8% | 92.2 | 8.1”/18.7” | 2181 (90.6%) | 10:18 | -5.6° (+0.7°) | 5.36’/2.84’/28.6° |
In platoon matchups, Early sets his sinker to the side to favor his 4-seam. This is because the advantage that horizontally-focused pitches get against same-handed hitters is reversed against opposite-handed ones. Further to that effect, he nearly entirely eschews his sweeper against them. Lucky for him, his best pitch may be the one he saves as his knockout punch for righties.
Early throws a kick-change that is best described as hellacious. With 10.5 mph of velocity separation and a staggering 20.1” of IVB separation from his 4-seam, if you don’t recognize it out of his hand, you’re not doing anything with it. It has run a surprisingly low whiff rate during his time in the majors, something we’ve seen from these kinds of changeups before. Hitters may be picking it up as he’s releasing it with its unique spin profile, but even when they identify it, it hasn’t been enough to help them do damage against it.
Early’s curveball is a bit frustrating. He uses it as his breaker of choice against righties because it fits there better than his sweeper, and we’ve established he uses his slider like a cutter. It lacks stuff, making it more useful as a called strike pitch thrown on occasion. At 16.2% usage against righties, it’s reasonably well set up to do that.
Unfortunately, this is one of the few instances in which we need to acknowledge his inexperience and comment on his poor command of this pitch. A 17th percentile zone% for a pitch that’s meant to steal strikes is not nearly good enough. If the idea is to draw chases, it’s not doing that particularly well either. Curveballs can be tricky to evaluate, as good enough command of one can be all they need to succeed. Early’s is just not there yet.
Early’s slider continues to take on a cutter role against righties, though it’s gotten him burned a few times early in his career. Not every hitter is going to be able to punish all of the mistakes that catch too much of the plate, but that’s not going to slide forever. He needs to clean up his command of this pitch as well, especially to right-handed hitters.
Putting the Pieces Together, Separately
Personally, I don’t think Early’s evolution as a pitcher necessarily includes him breaking away from this strategy. At this point in his career, I would go as far as to say that would be ill-advised. While there’s certainly room for growth, breaking apart one of his best traits isn’t the answer.
The real test for Early, like most developing lefty pitchers, will be handling righties. His two weakest pitches right now are most of what he can offer them after his one-two fastball-changeup punch. While those make a great combo, he needs to have a third pitch he can trust. Whether it’s the slider or the curve, execution needs to improve.
He could also stand to sharpen his other pitches a bit. While I don’t think his control is a problem, I wouldn’t mind seeing his 4-seamers concentrate a bit higher, his changeups a bit lower, and his sinkers land waist-high a bit less often. These are pretty standard things to see for rookies, though. It’s not a huge concern as it pertains to his success on the mound, and I don’t think it will derail him. I’d just like to see him make progress in those areas.
It can be difficult to suggest changes for a pitcher already doing as many things right as Early is. I don’t want to leave it at “he needs to command his pitches better” because that’s true of most rookie pitchers. The fun thing about Early is that he’s so advanced at this stage in his career. His underlying numbers are a little scary, and he’s certain to see some regression to the mean as this season goes on.
The important thing to remember is that that’s normal! Rookies aren’t supposed to all be aces coming out of the gate. A 24-year-old with 257 professional innings isn’t going to have it all figured out right away. That Early has solved as much of the puzzle as he has is a testament to his skill and potential.
