This time of year, it’s essential for fantasy managers to identify the players not currently on their team (whether they be a trade target or a potential waiver wire addition) who could help lead them to a championship in the coming weeks.
And while pulling off an all-in trade for a top-25 overall player certainly isn’t without merit, oftentimes it’s the under-the-radar deals (relatively speaking) that can have the most outsized fantasy impact. Under the radar, in that, a player might be outside the top 100 overall for the season. Under the radar, in that, the player’s full-season stats could be hiding an encouraging recent run of form. Perhaps the player has simply been good, but not great, from a fantasy scoring standpoint but is posting great underlying metrics. Maybe there are strong underlying stats that point to strong statistical production on the horizon.
Whichever of those criteria apply, these are the type of players who could, in short, be league winners.
Trading for them should not only set you up for plenty of fantasy success, but you’re probably also surrendering far less (relatively speaking) in a trade than you would be for a top-25 or top-50 overall player – while acquiring a player with similar fantasy upside.
Arguably the best-starting pitcher traded at the deadline after Jack Flaherty, Eflin landed in about as much of a fantasy-friendly environment as you could possibly find (or construct for that matter) for a starting pitcher.
Does said fantasy environment include a pitcher-friendly ballpark?
Yes indeed, it does. All told, 17 ballparks, per Statcast, have a lower overall park factor than Camden Yards in the last three years. Also per Statcast, Camden Yards has the seventh-lowest park factor for home runs, something that doesn’t exactly hurt considering Eflin is sporting a higher home-runs-allowed-per-nine-innings rate (1.11) than he has in either of the last two seasons.
Does Eflin’s new fantasy environment also feature arguably the league’s best lineup?
Well… yeah, it does as well.
The Orioles entered play Wednesday ranking in the top three in ISO (first), home runs (also first), barrels (second), wRC+ (second), wOBA (second), barrel rate (third), and runs scored (third).
Unsurprisingly, with all that in mind and the fact that the 30-year-old has been excellent at limiting damage so far with just a 2.8% walk rate, a 6.5% barrel rate, and a 35.7% hard-hit rate against, it should probably come as no surprise that he’s thrived with the Orioles so far.
The veteran has scattered five runs, two walks, and 19 hits in 19.1 innings, reaching the seven-strikeout mark in two of his three starts and logging at least six innings in each of the three outings. Overall, he’s sporting a 2.33 ERA and a 3.07 FIP in a Baltimore Orioles uniform so far (while winning each of his three starts) and should continue to benefit from home starts at Camden Yards.
Five of Eflin’s remaining nine starts will come at Camden Yards, assuming the Orioles’ rotation continues as is and without any interruptions or replacements, a fact that should make him a key fantasy starter down the stretch.
And even in his road starts, the veteran should be kept in lineups more often than not (there is a projected Coors Field outing on the schedule, for what it’s worth) considering his ability to limit damage and mistakes in general.
Realistically, Eflin has been good this season from a fantasy numbers standpoint, logging a 3.83 ERA and a 3.60 FIP in 129.1 total innings split between the two American League East franchises. But considering the new ballpark he plays in and the lineup that will now provide him run support, Eflin has a very real chance to be one of the better fantasy starters in the league down the stretch.
He’s been good, but his statistical (and fantasy) production could point more towards great once all is said and done this year. If someone in your league thinks Eflin’s fantasy production is more the former than the latter, now might be the time to start working on a trade.
Sticking with the Baltimore Orioles we move now to Colton Cowser, whose season so far has very much been a peaks and valley sort of deal, with a scathing start making way for an unideal next few months production-wise before a recent (also, significant) uptick in production.
Through it all, Coswer has largely logged strong quality of contact metrics. He’s sporting a 14.1% barrel rate that sits in the 90th percentile league-wide, to go along with a .345 xwOBA, a 46.5% hard-hit rate, and a .475 xSLG.
All three rank in the 77th percentile or better league-wide.
So too does Cowser’s 73.9 MPH average bat speed. Most specifically, it sits in the 81st percentile league-wide.
All that is good and encouraging, and certainly points to a potentially strong stretch run for the 24-year-old, whose production seems to be turning around at the right time for fantasy managers.
But the best and most encouraging part of it all is that the recent run of good form at the plate has vaulted Cowser to the top of the Orioles’ vaunted lineup, a move that will only benefit his counting stats (potentially significantly) moving forward while also giving the outfielder even more plate appearances to do damage at the plate.
Since July 28, Cowser has made 16 starts, all but one of them have come batting leadoff. Furthermore, during that span, he’s logged a 132 wRC+ while hitting .290 and contributing close to a quarter of his total home runs for the season.
As long as Cowser continues to hit leadoff for the Orioles and make this kind of quality contact, he has a very real chance at producing like a top-40 overall player from here on out.
Jumping back to Eflin’s old team the Rays, Morel arrived in Tampa Bay as part of a series of trades completed by the American League East club.
The infielder, who is also fantasy-eligible in the outfield, hasn’t gotten off to the best start for the Rays, batting just .114 with a .250 on-base percentage, two home runs, and a stolen base in 52 plate appearances. He’s walked 11.5% of the time during that span with a 26.9% strikeout rate.
The sample size is too small to read too much into, but it’s worth noting that it has also come with just a .136 BABIP. Again, tiny sample size, but potential positive regression has very much been an underlying theme for Morel’s stat line this season.
Overall, the 25-year-old is batting .190 with a .296 on-base percentage and an 87 wRC+ this year. His wOBA sits at .291 and he’s collected 20 home runs and eight stolen bases.
And yet, Morel is also doing all that with just a .209 BABIP, the lowest among qualified Major League hitters by a considerable margin.
But it’s not just the BABIP. Morel, despite a reasonably high strikeout rate (24.7%), continues to make quality contact when he is putting the ball in play, logging an 11.2% barrel rate, a .398 xwOBAcon, a 42.0% hard-hit rate, and a .338 xwOBA.
They’re solid numbers in a vacuum, but when paired with the BABIP and some of his surface-level numbers point to significant positive regression coming down the stretch.
Considering Morel’s fantasy eligibility at second base, third base, and in the outfield, as well as his ability to log quality home run and stolen base tallies, it gives him impact fantasy upside moving forward. The kind of upside that could see him play a key role in many fantasy playoff matchups once the positive regression kicks in.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter).
I’ve been hoping & believing in Morel’s peripherals all dang season long, adding and dropping him in the thin OF and 3B slots, waiting for his improvements in approach from last season to pay dividends, expecting the babip to rise. It hasn’t.
I’m not going to do more than add him if I’m facing an opponent in a h2h weekly win league who I *might* have a chance to beat with an extra HR or two, but only if adding a LARGE drain on ratios won’t hurt. That isn’t likely to happen in the playoffs, and there’s only a couple more matchups in them to pray for things that have stayed exactly the same, all season, to change.