The Oakland Athletics have only been able to muster up a league-low one save opportunity this season, with that chance going to Lou Trivino earlier this week. He converted the save and should be in line to see the bulk of the team’s save chances moving forward. Trivino has seen an increase in velocity to his pitches this year (not quite at his 2018-19 levels yet) and features an interesting pitch mix with three different fastballs. The lack of whiffability has me hesitant to place him any higher on the list, but he’s certainly trending upward.
Jake Diekman’s value on the other hand is trending the other way. The biggest reason for the drop here isn’t because he isn’t the team’s closer, or because his velocity is down a tick but more so related to his lack of command which was bound to come back to hurt him. Walks haven’t been an issue, the opposite in fact as he’s been leaving too many pitches over the middle of the plate. He could right the ship but it’s tough to get excited about him right now.
Notes
- It’s been a particularly rough week for the Toronto bullpen, as they’ve lost both Julian Merryweather and Jordan Romano to injuries. That should bump Rafael Dolis into the closer role for the time being, with David Phelps and Ryan Borucki behind him. After a rough couple of outings to begin the year, Dolis has settled down, allowing just one hit and one walk over his past three innings.
- I touched on the Seattle closer situation a bit in yesterday’s “The Hold Up” but we actually saw change yesterday afternoon when Rafael Montero pitched in front of Kendall Graveman, who earned his first save of the season. I love the changes Graveman has made but I’m not ready to declare him a top 40 reliever in all of baseball just yet. 41 still makes you a pretty darn good pitcher though.
- I feel like a may have been a little too harsh on Evan Marshall last week and he’s been much better of late while pitching in some tough spots. He isn’t gathering the whiffs he did last year (yet), but he’s going to continue being a big part of that White Sox bullpen despite the depth there.
- Adam Ottavino also continues to struggle inducing whiffs and continues to cough up runs for the Red Sox. With how well others in that bullpen have been pitching, I wonder how long Alex Cora plans to stick with Ottavino as the team’s top setup option.
- Nick Wittgren dropped a lot this week because he is no longer in the closer discussion. He’s still going to get some holds and probably won’t completely wreck your ratios like others on this list but the upside is pretty limited.
- Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers led all relievers this past week with a whopping four SV+HLD’s, with both currently on pace for 81 saves (or holds). Obviously, that won’t happen and the Giants will cool off, but it’s great to McGee and Rogers excel in their defined roles that Gabe Kapler of all people has implemented.
EDIT 4/18: Added Joely Rodriguez and removed Wander Suero
| PITCHER | TIER | INJURY (EST. RETURN) |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Anderson | 1/2 | Elbow (All-Star break) |
| Trevor Rosenthal | 2/3 | Shoulder (July at earliest) |
| Jordan Romano | 2/3 | Arm (???) |
| Julian Merryweather | 3 | Oblique (May) |
| Seth Lugo | 3/4 | Elbow (May) |
| Pete Fairbanks | 4 | Rotator Cuff (May) |
| Zack Britton | 4/5 | Elbow (June) |
| Archie Bradley | 5 | Oblique (May) |
| Chris Martin | 5 | Shoulder (late April) |
| Wander Suero | 6/7 | Oblique (May) |
| Pedro Baez | 7/8 | COVID (early May) |
| Will Harris | 7/8 | Arm (late April) |
Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
You’re high on Chad green given his low k rate to start the year and the depth in the bullpen around him. Any specific you like him that say Lou Trivino who has a wide open path to sv/hd with similar ratios last year and better to start this? Thanks!
I like Green’s track record and he should still be in line for holds in New York. He will eventually give you better ratios and K’s. Just need to hold steady for now.
Ian Kennedy is awfully low. He’s the Rangers’ closer. 8Ks, 0 BBs in 5 IP to go along with three saves.
Yea I suppose I could move him up after last night’s outing (I made the ranks before that game finished). Before last night he was having weird velocity inconsistencies that had me worried. Either way, there’s not a ton in his profile to get excited about from a season-long perspective.
Need to give some love to Caleb Thielbar. Throwing harder, great K rate and pitching in tough spots for MN so far. Would personally have him in the tier 5/6 range.
This… this is why you always read the comments. Thanks for putting this dude on my radar
I just don’t see it personally. His velo is up from 89 to 90, not exactly a huge development, and other than that the stuff remains the same as it always was. He’s leaving way too many fastballs over the middle of the plate and hasn’t exactly faced quality MLB hitters with the exception of his last outing against the Red Sox.
Rick, I’m finding it real hard to resist the urge to add Tyler Matzek for holds. His numbers so far are eye-popping and his FB velo is up. Are you low on him based on his lack of a reliable track record? He seems to be growing into a bigger role after a solid Braves debut in 2020. Minter will never be consistent or reliable and Martin is not close to coming back… seems reasonable to speculate that Matzek is ATL’s primary set up in the near future. Am I being fooled by those K rates? I do see he has a middling whiff % and BB rates. Thanks as always!
Yea I think Matzek could jump up next if the Braves finally replace AJ Minter with him (which they really need to). He should be a top 60 reliever as long as the Braves start deploying him in more high-leverage situations.
Tejay Antone feels like he’s much more valuable than in the mid 50’s since he has upside to become a starter. If one wanted to factor this in, where would you rank him? I’m thinking of dropping Mayers for him. Anyone’s thoughts would be appreciated.
I guess it depends on what stats you are looking for/need. I don’t think Antone is going to be a double-digit holds guy, but he can help with the other categories and if he winds up in the rotation at some point (why isn’t he already?) then that’s gravy.