In 2024, I wrote a piece evaluating old players to see if they still had value. In that article, I declared José Abreu and Justin Verlander to be Busted, while Chris Sale I deemed to be Trusted (one of my all-time best predictions). This year I will again be looking at five aging players, and determining if they are:
TRUSTED, RUSTED OR BUSTED!
The rules are simple. I’ll pick a player, examine their previous seasons and their career trajectory, and judge which category they belong to. What do the categories mean? Well here are the category explainers for how this game will work:
Trusted – a player that you can count on who will certainly produce. A solid pick even in high rounds, and well worth the ADP
Rusted – Flawed, but starter-quality. They aren’t the player they were in their heyday, but still capable of some solid production, a good mid-round value
Busted – Old, beaten-up, and well past their prime, these players are hardly worth rostering even in fairly deep leagues – and even then only as a late-round flier
With that out of the way, let’s take a look at five veterans, all in their mid-late 30s, and see where they place on this innovative scale:
Sonny Gray is 35 years old, which is weird. Gray has quietly been one of the most productive starting pitchers in baseball over the past three seasons, first putting together excellent campaigns with the Minnesota Twins before signing with the Cardinals, where he put together another solid season. Since 2019, Gray has a 3.35 ERA, with a 1.135 WHIP and while volume concerns have been present throughout his career, he’s been qualified his last two seasons.
In 2023, Gray had a 2.79 ERA, largely a result of an incredibly low 0.4 home-runs-per-nine, a clearly unsustainable rate. I predicted a relative down year in 2024, which I was correct about, as Gray finished with a 3.84 ERA. Here’s what I didn’t expect though:
Sonny Gray set a full season career high in strikeout rate with 30.3%, but also had a career low walk rate at 5.8%. As a result, while Gray allowed more home runs, he also allowed fewer baserunners overall – with his lowest WHIP since 2019, and struck out 203 batters in 166.1 innings. Gray may deserve a deeper analysis, but the short answer to his success can be found in his sweeper.
The last two years, nobody has been able to touch Gray’s sweeper. It’s commanded a whiff rate of over 40%, while surrendering a slugging-percentage-against below .200. Gray’s recipe for success is very simple, he throws almost exclusively fastballs (although he throws all three types) early in counts, and four out of five times in two-strike counts, you’re seeing the sweeper. It’s a classic recipe, but with the effectiveness of Gray’s sweeper, it’s proven very fruitful, especially as he’s made targeting the zone a higher priority.
The real concern with Gray is going to be if he can sustain a high strikeout rate going into his age 35 season. Gray’s fastball is adored by PLV because of how he uses it in counts, but it’s still an underwhelming pitch that lefties hammer. In fact, because of Gray’s reliance on his sweeper and his lack of a real changeup, lefties crush Gray, while he pounces on same-handed hitters. I have some concerns that if he loses effectiveness against righties his weakness to platooning will hurt him, but Gray has shown he can steadily lower his walk rate while getting plenty of strikeouts. There’s a world where Gray falls apart in 2025, but there is also a world where he keeps his 30% whiff rate while giving up less hard contact. At his ADP, I’ll take my chances.
VERDICT: Trusted
Arenado is an all-time-great third baseman, but he’s certainly a glove-first player now. There was a seven season stretch (excluding 2020) where Arenado was a shoe-in for 30+ home runs, averaging 40 a season from 2015-2019. However, two years removed from an MVP finalist season, Arenado has seen his power completely diminish. Arenado finished with just 16 home runs in 2024, and it’s worse when you look under the hood:
Arenado seemed to make a conscious effort to reduce his whiffs and strikeouts in 2019, which can help to explain the drop in barrel rate, but the max EV stayed relatively stagnant until this past year. Arenado has never really crunched the ball, but he’s been a productive hitter given a lack of elite raw power. Both his game and raw power fell off a cliff in 2024, however, and it’s easy to suspect that a series of back injuries sapped a significant chunk of his pop over the last couple years. Furthermore, Arenado has a really long swing. Like, one of the longest in baseball. Guys with that long of swings don’t generally do well at making consistent contact, so with a diminished bat speed, I think Arenado would need a major approach change to still be a viable hitter.
It may be harsh, but I don’t see an obvious way Arenado bounces back in 2025. His contact-focused, Freeman-esque approach doesn’t fare as well when you aren’t a power threat, and with Arenado turning 34 in April, it doesn’t project going well going forward. Unless major changes are made, Arenado doesn’t offer OBP, slugging percentage, stolen bases, home runs, or good enough RBI potential. He’s historically been a better player in AVG leagues, but otherwise the choice is pretty clear.
VERDICT: BUSTED
One of the stranger careers in recent memory, Semien went from a soft-hitting shortstop with the A’s, to Ironman slugger in his final years in Oakland and Toronto, before becoming an elite defender at second base with the Rangers, helping his team win the World Series by simply being good at everything. In 2024, Semien went from “good at everything” to “pretty good at everything but better at defense”, as his numbers declined across the board. I mean, .237/.308/391 is not going to win you any praise here, sorry Marcus.
The main reason Semien is appealing is that you are likely to get 700 plate appearances for a leadoff hitter in one of the best lineups in baseball. Doesn’t matter if you’re Aaron Judge or Martín Maldonado, that’s an appealing situation to be in. Semien has scored 100 runs each of his past three seasons in Texas, and with a reinforced lineup that acquired Joc Pederson and Jake Burger (oh, and don’t forget that they have Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter), the Rangers look to be firing on all cylinders again. On the other hand, Semien’s age and lack of raw power makes me question his upside. Semien’s renown durability is great but it’s hard to play that many games as a 34/35 year old. You are buying Semien for the volume, not the rate, and that is questionable entering 2025.
Semien has a relatively low ceiling, capped by his lack of raw power. While he may still get you 20 home runs, his .391 slugging percentage was his worst full season since 2018, and while a good portion of this can be explained by a crazy low .250 BABIP, his barrel numbers and swing speed aren’t flattering. He also only stole 8 bases last year, a career low.
Semien’s value depends heavily on your league type. In Roto, his value is very high. In weekly categories and points leagues, you should be more selective. Second base is slim pickings, but there’s value to be found later in drafts. At 57 ADP it’s too high for my tastes, but Semien can be a stable, high floor producer if you want to target higher ceiling players elsewhere. Draft responsibly.
VERDICT: Rusted
Oh this one is going to be fun.
Just as a reminder, this is what deGrom’s combined stats look like over the last four years:
Now, you and I both know that there are problems here. For one, deGrom is now 36 years old, coming off of his second Tommy John surgery, and these numbers would be astounding if they were not spread over four years. He is the epitome of a glass cannon.
But man, there’s nobody like him. You and I both know how good deGrom is, so I won’t spend too much time going on and on about his mechanics and raw stuff. The question at hand here is “Is deGrom worth it?”
Well it depends. In roto, no. It’s such a risky play that I would recommend looking elsewhere at his ADP. In weekly leagues however… well that’s a different story.
Let me make this clear, deGrom can outright win you weeks when he starts. Especially in points leagues, although volume per start is questionable, he’s still highly effective, and has had a K/9 north of 14 each of his last four years. Look at that K-BB rate again – YOU WANT THAT. deGrom showed last year that he can still light up both the radar gun and the pitch modeling metrics, look at his four seamer from last year.
Even though that fastball isn’t sitting at 99 anymore, his unmatched command makes it a superb pitch. His brief appearances last year showed that he’s still got it. deGrom has a healthy elbow and a full offseason of rest. The highest upside players in the draft will be gone by pick 2 – but the next highest is deGrom, who may last into round five. If ceiling is what you are chasing, deGrom is your guy. Also it’s really fun, and come on isn’t that what matters?
Verdict: Trusted
Story isn’t that old – he’s 32 – but Story has as many question marks as anybody on this list, and his place in the Red Sox is interesting. With the signing of Alex Bregman, Story’s stock has risen slightly as the Boston offense gets a considerable upgrade – just take a look at this projected lineup:
source: Fangraphs Roster Resource
For fantasy managers, Story will get ample opportunities for RBI and runs, in what’s supposed to be a high powered offense. Boston will be productive, but will Story? There are valid reasons for both pessimism and optimism:
Detractors can reasonably point to Story’s injury history, playing only 163 games in three seasons in Boston. Furthermore, those seasons have not been particularly productive. They can also point to his unimpressive numbers under the hood. Even though Story’s 2024 had him return to an above average WRC+, his xwOBA of .269 was dismal for the second year in a row. His BABIP of .373 was astronomically high, and while his BB% was in the double digits, a drop in BABIP would result in a substantial decline in batting average, making him much less appealing even in OBP leagues.
Supporters of Story would claim that he has a simple alibi – he wasn’t healthy. In 2022 he dealt with hand and heel injuries. In 2023 he underwent surgery on his right UCL, and in 2024 he missed almost the entire year with shoulder surgery. Now in 2025, Story has had his repairs and should again be ready for the upcoming season. At just 32, he should still be productive.
I am a Story detractor. Over the last three years his raw power has declined, and so have his contact abilities. This current version of story makes less contact and lower velocities, and despite a good lineup, in 12 team leagues he’s just not worth your time. In larger weekly OBP leagues, Story’s infield versatility can make him fairly productive, but anything else isn’t enough for me to be convinced. This Story is finished.
Verdict: BUSTED