I haven't given much airtime to Mike Leake this season and I'll admit, I expected Mike's pipes to Leake a bit as he faced the Dodgers Wednesday night, but he dazzled with a line of 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. He's now sporting a low 1.91 ERA despite a 3.78 SIERA and 3.47 xFIP. Maybe he's really good at surpressing HRs? He holds a 8.5% HR/FB rate this year after holding a 13.0%+ every season in his career except one where he had a 11.5% in 2013. Oh, and then there's his .236 BABIP despite being a heavy groundball pitcher who is inducing 17.2% soft contact (average, but it doesn't speak to an elite BABIP inducer) and an 85.6% LOB rate that is far from sustainable. So let's say this regresses to around a 3.60 ERA arm. Well, then you're left with his 6.16 K/9 that has given you 4.5 Ks per start, but that has required a near 7 IPS to render that kind of production. With a worse ERA comes shorter starts and we're left with about 4 Ks per start. That's not good and a bit risky on a given night as a start that doesn't go his way will given you little to salvage. So what, drop Leake? Ha, definitely not. Ride this one out for all it's worth. All I'm saying is don't fall in love with him, listen to offers, and don't wait too long to call the plumber when it starts dripping.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
I had finally decided to drop Norris and he uncorked a “good” start. Didn’t know the velo was still down, I do like that he seems to understand the mechanical issues he has in post-game interviews. Now I’m all torn up, Nick!
Still hurt I dropped Lance Lynn for Pomz. Felt like Morton could’ve gotten the axe. Gotta love that schedule though! But seriously, ROS, is Lynn better than Morton? Either way, I held onto that bum Nate Karns. He definitely could’ve gotten the boot. Kluber, Fulmer, Manaea, Eduardo Rodriguez, Pomz, Karns, and Edwin and Holland, I think I’m good though. Drop anyone for Joe Ross or Koda Glover?
So is it really time to give up on Hill? He’s apparently healthy and no blister issues last night. Can’t stop thinking of those beautiful curves he is capable of, it’s so hard to let go…
But there’s guys on the wire in my 12-team H2H points league like Manaea, Lackey, Pomeranz and Joe Ross. Should I be scooping one of those guys up instead?
If you need a start now, grab Pomeranz for today. I’d grab Manaea after his weekend start against the Yankees.
Sounds good, thanks Nick!
Hey Nick, I know it’s only 3 starts, but I am PUMPED about Berrios. Does he move up the Pitcher’s List again come Monday? If so, about where? Finally, what do you see as his ceiling in a keeper league, dare I say ace-like potential? Thanks for all of the good work!
would you trade away hendricks/ross for nola/todd frazier?
I’m not much of a fan of Todd Frazier, but I like the idea of the trade. I’d try to get a different bat and pull the trigger.
the only other bat he’ll do is khris davis, which seems like about the same value. 33 seems generous on your rankings for him though?
I’d do Nola and Khris Davis, definitely
Garza’s always-entertaining screaming gif is missing.
It sure is! Thanks for catching that, it’s been fixed.
Here go: https://gfycat.com/UnrealisticHastyDuckbillplatypus
I believe we still own Hill because the last time he pitched (5/16) he gave up 1 ER, 0BBs and 6Ks. I believe your advice the next day was,”keep starting him until his blister realizes it has all the power in this relationship.” That said, 7 walks is ridiculous but I will give him that one,
By the way, I love this website and the advice/opinions are very good. I just thought it was funny how quickly the tone changed on Hill.
All good!
Yeah, I should have gone into more detail there. The thinking is this: We were holding onto him through thick-and-thin because when Hill did pitch, he essentially was an ace last year. If he’s going to give us seven walks – seven walks! – when he finally does pitch, the reward just isn’t good enough to endure everything else.
according to fangraphs Daniel Norris velocity is basically the same as last year. Where are you seeing a huge difference?
I’m referring to the jump we saw in September that made us (read: me) excited about the prospects of 2017.
This year, we haven’t seen that same jump and as you’ve said, it’s back to its normal levels. Bummer.