Welcome back to the 2025 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters and group them into four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two start SPs who should remain on your bench or the wire.
I’ll also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in green in the tables.
This week’s group of two start pitchers features minimal sure things. Fortunately, there are a host of pitchers who should be viable for at least one start. Let’s dive in.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections. They are subject to change.
Set-and-Forget
- Jacob deGrom is the only Tier One pitcher from the Pitcher List rankings who is expected to toe the rubber twice. He’s managed to stay healthy this season and has picked up right where he left off, re-establishing himself as one of the unquestioned best starters in baseball. He may not be quite as dominant as he was in his prime, but his 2.33 ERA and 2.86 xERA are certainly nothing to scoff at. He also ranks in the 80th percentile for strikeout rate, and he’s gone at least seven innings in back-to-back starts. There is simply no opponent that he is unstartable against at this point.
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto doesn’t quite make the Tier One cut, but he’s just barely on the outside looking in. He’s been absolutely phenomenal this season, pitching to a 1.86 ERA and a 2.53 xERA. He also ranks in the 91st percentile for strikeout rate, so he’s dominating in all areas. The only real downside with Yamamoto is a matchup vs. the Yankees to close the week, but you can’t take him out of your lineup.
- Joe Ryan doesn’t have the same eye-popping velocity as deGrom or Yamamoto, but don’t let that fool you; he’s an absolute stud. He has a strikeout rate of 30.6% and a walk rate of just 3.7%, which is an elite combination. His one big weakness is that he ranks below average in barrel rate, but that’s simply picking nits. He draws two solid matchups vs. the Rays and at the Mariners in the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball.
- Hunter Brown is another pitcher who could be a Tier One arm based solely on his production. He’s pitched to a 2.04 ERA, and he’s racked up a 30.6% strikeout rate. His batted-ball data is also excellent, including a hard-hit rate that ranks in the 95th percentile.
- Clay Holmes is the clear outlier in this tier. He’s not nearly as talented, and he’s been far below the other four guys from a production standpoint. However, Holmes has still been pretty good, and it doesn’t get better than home matchups against the White Sox and Rockies. If he’s on your roster, he’s an absolutely slam-dunk.
Most Likely
- Taj Bradley has yet to live up to his massive potential at the MLB level. He was once considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but his career ERA sits at 4.72. However, he has shown some improvement this season, and his 3.50 xERA is considerably better than his previous marks. That has unfortunately come at the expensive of his strikeouts, as his 20.3% strikeout rate is by far the worst mark of his career. Bradley is coming off an excellent start in his last outing, racking up seven strikeouts across six two-run innings, and he draws two more favorable matchups this week. He deserves to be started.
- What do you do with Spencer Strider? You drafted him to be an ace, but he has not lived up to that billing so far this season. Still, it feels too early to panic. He’s made just two starts, and it’s entirely possible he’s about to heat up. His upcoming matchups aren’t ideal, but you didn’t take Strider to sit him on the pine.
- Ryan Weathers was a popular breakout candidate this offseason, but an injury in spring training delayed his debut. He’s now made two starts since being activated, and he’s allowed one run across five innings in both. He also has nine total strikeouts, while his hard-hit rate is below 30%. The matchup vs. the Padres isn’t ideal, but this is clearly a pitcher on the rise.
- Ranger Suárez might be the most underappreciated pitcher in baseball. He doesn’t look like an ace—his average fastball velocity is just 91.9 miles per hour—but he’s been one of the most effective pitchers in the league over the past few seasons. In his four starts this season, he’s pitched to a 2.39 xERA with elite Statcast data. Ultimately, he’s really tough to take out of your lineup.
- Is Jameson Taillon a good pitcher? Probably not, but he’s good enough to be the Streamer of the Week. He’ll get two elite matchups at home against the Rockies and Reds, and there aren’t a ton of starters you can’t trust in those matchups.
Questionable
- Tomoyuki Sugano continues to outpitch his peripherals. His ERA currently sits at 3.07, while his xERA is more than a full run higher at 4.36. It’s possible he defies regression all season, and his combination of a low walk rate and soft contact on balls in play can work in the right matchups. The White Sox definitely qualify, and the Cardinals aren’t particularly imposing either.
- Ryan Yarbrough spent the early part of the year in the Yankees’ bullpen, but he’s moved into the starting rotation of late. He’s yet to allow more than two earned runs in a start, and he’s gotten to five innings in each of his past two. If he can continue to get to five innings, he’ll have plenty of chances to rack up wins for the Yankees. The matchup vs. the Dodgers is extremely risky, but he can be deployed vs. the Angels.
- Zack Littell benefits from the same two matchups as Bradley, but he’s not nearly as good a pitcher. His xERA is near five, and his only real skill is limiting the number of free passes. You can do worse as a streamer, but you can probably do better, too.
- Gavin Williams has started to turn things around after a quiet start to the year. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight outings, and he has at least six strikeouts in each of them. He’s a pitcher on the rise, though he probably shouldn’t be started for his matchup vs. the Dodgers.
- Kevin Gausman has been up and down this season, but he’s coming off a fantastic showing in his last outing. He pitched seven scoreless innings vs. the Padres, and his nine strikeouts were tied for his second-most of the season. He has the potential to be used in both outings, though Gausman always has some blowout potential as well.
- Keider Montero is another pitcher with an elite upcoming schedule. He’ll get to face the Giants at home and the Royals in Kansas City, who have averaged the fewest runs per game at home. Montero isn’t a particularly good pitcher, but he’s also not as bad as his 5.28 ERA suggests.
- Michael Lorenzen doesn’t do any one thing particularly well, but he’s been effective for most of the year. Facing the Reds away from the Great American Ball Park is always a potential streaming option.
- Mitchell Parker has underperformed his 3.88 xERA this season, so he’s been better than he looks on paper. He’ll get to face the Mariners in Seattle, which is the most pitcher-friendly environment in the league.
- Nick Martinez has pitched to a 3.43 ERA this season, and his 3.50 xERA is basically right in line. That makes him a slightly above-average starter, though he doesn’t help much from a strikeout standpoint. Still, he can be used in the right matchups, and against the Royals in KC could be one of them.
- Hayden Birdsong has pitched very well out of the Giants’ bullpen this season, and he carried that into his first turn in the rotation. He pitched five innings with zero earned runs allowed, dropping his season-long ERA to 1.91. He likely won’t throw more than five innings in any start, but that’s enough to potentially pick up a win vs. the Marlins.
Avoid
- There’s very little to get excited about here. Maybe you can find a start for one or two of these guys if you’re desperate, but you’d have to squint really hard to find it. You’re best off just avoiding this tier entirely, with the risk far outweighing the upside.
