Hello and welcome to Pitcher List’s latest series: Using PLA to Evaluate Pitchers! Every week, I will examine various pitchers and break them down using PLA. There will be various themes and topics each week, which will range from topics such as waiver wire picks, to buy or sell, to awards races, to lefties/righties only, etc. I hope to mix it up as much as possible to keep you all on your toes.
Now, you might be asking, what is PLA?
PLA is an ERA estimator that was created in tandem with Pitch Level Value, which we refer to as PLV. PLV is essentially an all-encompassing stat that measures individual pitches and rates them on a 0-10 scale. The elements that factor into PLV include velocity, movement, release point, location, count, and handedness of the batter. We have an excellent primer on this by the one and only Nick Pollack that you can find right here! PLA takes this 0-10 score and translates it to an estimated ERA, which makes it easier to understand and more useful for those looking for help with their fantasy teams.
It’s important to note that PLA isn’t necessarily a catch-all estimator, just as xERA, FIP, SIERA, and pCRA aren’t either. These stats ultimately still measure outcomes, which are largely dependent on how a player is executing that day. ERA estimators are not crystal balls; however, they can provide some insight if taken with a grain of salt. For the purpose of this series, we are going to use PLA as the main factor to evaluate pitchers (hence the series title), but again, no stat is perfect, especially in the complex world of pitching.
Also, stay tuned for other PLV evaluation article series, such as one that will look at individual pitches and another that will use Process+ to evaluate hitters!
Last week, I gave you guys a special trade deadline edition of this article, and I whiffed spectacularly. Seriously, only ONE of the names was moved. But who could’ve seen the Seth Lugo extension coming or the Pirates holding onto Mitch Keller? I felt like I had to make it up to you all by covering some of the players who were actually traded, to try to forecast their future outcomes with new squads based on PLA.
Merrill Kelly – 3.91 PLA
Honestly, Merrill Kelly is a bit underappreciated. How do I know? I even forgot to include him in last week’s article. Perhaps it’s because Texas hasn’t generated much buzz, but it really feels like few are discussing the trade that sent Kelly out of Arizona.
The key for Kelly is still the same as always: the changeup. Kelly is one of the kings of the righty changeup, as he’s one of the few pitchers who use it as their most-used offering. Results-wise, the pitch has seen a bit of a glowup in 2025, as it has its highest swinging strike rate since the COVID-shortened 2020. It’s a pitch that PLV loves, and the results show for it. The change gets strikes at a 63% rate, which is impressive when you realize that it nips the zone only 24% of the time. It’s all about deception for Kelly on the pitch.
Kelly features not one, not two, but three distinct fastballs to back up the changeup. PLV doesn’t grade any of the three highly, but they are all distinct, and his ability to use each of them in various situations adds to his value. Kelly rounds out his arsenal with a curveball for strikes that does its job and a slider that grades out well, though the results stats show that he may not quite have a feel for it.
The addition of Merrill Kelly could be huge for the Rangers, as they add another excellent piece to a rotation that has given them great results this year.
Zack Littell – 3.43 PLA
After pitching a really solid outing against the Yankees, Zack Littell had to say goodbye to his Rays teammates, as he got shipped off to Cincinnati. Littell came to the Rays as a journeyman low-leverage reliever, but due to injuries and Kyle Snyder’s ability to turn low-end relievers into solid starters, he eventually joined the rotation near the end of 2023. From there, he became the Rays’ key innings eater, putting up some seriously impressive outings in the process.
Littell goes from one hard-to-pitch-in ballpark to another, though Great American Ballpark is probably a slightly easier place to play. Littell is one of those starters, similar to Kelly, whose most-used pitch isn’t a fastball, it’s a slider. And his second-most-used pitch? A splitter. These pitches are why PLA loves Littell so much, as PLV views them as his best and he conveniently uses them most. Littell pounds the zone with these off-speed offerings, getting surprisingly solid results. Littell also has two fastballs, a four-seamer and a sinker. Neither of these are great stuff-wise, but location-wise it’s interesting. Both find their way to the top of the zone A LOT more than average. Both are above the 95th percentile in high-location percentage. This is great for the four-seamer, which is one of the weaker ones based on stuff, but is somewhat detrimental to the sinker, which is why it’s his worst graded pitch. He also has a sweeper that sees a bit of action against righties, though PLV doesn’t grade it highly.
I’m curious to see how Littell will perform on a new team as a starter. The Reds need him to perform, and PLV shows that he is capable of doing so.
The Taj Bradley for Griffin Jax trade was a bit of a shock, but a welcome one. These pitchers both really could’ve used different situations, and the change of scenery for each seems like a potential perfect match.
Bradley is known for his fastball. It’s a high-velocity offering that has great vertical movement on it. The unfortunate thing for Taj is that he is now pitching outside of Tropicana Field, which is known to boost vertical movement on fastballs, almost like an anti-Coors. This has set his PLV for the pitch back a bit, as it was one of the better fastballs among starters per the stat last year, while now it grades out to be around average.
The issue for Bradley is the secondaries. He needs to develop that great second pitch to become the consistent top-of-the-rotation arm that many billed him as. He has a cutter that was a highly graded pitch when he was a prospect, though PLV doesn’t rank it super high due to the fact that he struggles to control it. Per PLV, it has taken a step back each year since his debut. The splitter looked to be the answer, as he added it to the arsenal in 2024 and it did the job for a while. Unfortunately, the pitch has taken a major step back per PLV. Why? Partially because it has gained a few inches of induced vertical break, which is not a good thing for splitters, which are supposed to dive down.
Bradley also has a slow, loopy curveball that has done a decent job at getting strikeouts this year, though it has also struggled to get strikes outside of two-strike counts.
Overall, it’s exciting to see what will come of Bradley as a Minnesota Twin. Perhaps he can do what Joe Ryan did, and leverage a high-potential fastball right into ace territory.
Michael Soroka– 3.49 PLA
Honestly, I’m a bit shocked that Michael Soroka is the Cubs’ big starting arm addition this deadline. It feels like they were going to get more, though it’s pretty shocking that guys like Seth Lugo, Sandy Alcantara, and Mitch Keller stuck around with their teams. According to PLA, though, perhaps this was a good thing?
Soroka has bounced around a bit after being moved from Atlanta. When he first broke the Majors, he was one of the more impressive young pitchers, earning the nickname “Maple Maddux” from the Atlanta faithful. Unfortunately, some freak injuries got in the way, and he ended up becoming the journeyman he is today.
Soroka, like most starters, builds his arsenal off a solid foundation that is his four-seam fastball. There aren’t many attributes that make it special per se, but it grades out above-average due to solid command and decent velocity. The main pitch in his arsenal per PLV is the curveball, which is actually new for this season. The curveball is a monster by PLV’s standards. The 80mph pitch doesn’t have the best results as of now, but it certainly will improve, as the stuff and command of it is too good not to get strikes galore.
Rounding out Soroka’s arsenal is a changeup to lefties, a sinker to righties, and a slider that used to have a much larger role in his arsenal. None of these pitches grade out particularly amazingly (though the slider isn’t bad), so the focus really is on the fastball/curveball, as he uses those two pitches more than the rest combined.
PLA shows that Soroka can be a good pitcher for the Cubs. Perhaps he will be one of the most underrated deadline moves?
Jake Bird – 3.78 PLA
If you saw this ERA and those peripheral-based ERA estimators and had to guess which team this reliever played for, you probably would instantly guess the Colorado Rockies.
Jake Bird is a fun reliever per PLV. He is mostly a sinker/slider guy, and has gotten the job done with this formula. The sinker, unfortunately, grades out abysmally per PLV. But the slider does now, as it is absolutely one of the best sliders per PLV. This tracks with some of the real-life numbers as well, as it gets a LOT of strikes, getting them 74% of the time. The curve is notably not as successful, but it still grades out above average, making for a pair of breakers that do their job and get strikes.
At the back of Bird’s arsenal are a sweeper and a cutter. The sweeper actually also has a ridiculous PLV grade, which is inflated even more when looking at pitches to righties. He doesn’t use it often, but when he does, it’s effective, getting strikes at a high rate. The cutter is barely ever used, and it isn’t really effective when thrown.
While Bird’s ratios weren’t great in Colorado, the new opportunity with the Yankees could make him one of their better high-leverage options.
Aaaaaand it appears that Bird has been optioned. Well, let’s see how long this lasts. Per PLA, he should be at the very least good enough to be a Major Leaguer.
Griffin Jax – 2.34 PLA
All hail our PLA king!
No seriously, Griffin Jax has the best PLA among any pitcher with at least 150 pitches thrown this season. And he just got traded. To the Rays. Who have been known to get the most out of pitchers.
Jax’s best pitch per PLV is also his most used: the sweeper. This pitch is one of the highest graded breakers per PLV, and he uses it 45% of the time. If you thought that was nuts, then check out his changeup, which also grades ridiculously well while having a nearly 30% swinging strike rate. And he isn’t done with just those two, as the four-seam fastball is also incredibly effective, coming in at a flat attack angle and a high velocity to generate whiffs galore. He rounds out his arsenal with a high-velocity sinker and cutter, which both grade out around average.
It will be interesting to see how he performs with the Rays, as their park isn’t the most pitcher-friendly. Either way, he’s an elite arm and perhaps the Rays may try to convert him back to a starter in the future? Probably not… Unless?
Camilo Doval – 4.07 PLA
The Camilo Doval trade was a buzzer-beater, as the Yankees snuck it past the line at the last second, and boy, it’s a fun one.
The Yankees did not mess around at the deadline, adding David Bednar before also getting in on Doval. It will be interesting to see how the Yankees use their three closers, as all three have the potential to be among the very best in the game, but all three are also volatile.
Doval’s mix is almost entirely slider/cutter.
The slider is an excellent pitch for Doval. It grades out decently well and gets whiffs. He gets the pitch low at a high rate, which leads to plenty of chases of balls down low. The cutter is one of the fastest in MLB, as we’ve seen it hit over 100mph. PLV doesn’t grade it out exceptionally well, largely due to questionable command on the pitch. Lastly, Doval has a sinker that isn’t used often, but grades out the best of his three pitches.
It will be interesting to see how Doval does with the Yankees, as PLA grades him out a bit lower than some of the other arms we have talked about. At the end of the day though, he has shown us his ability so let’s see if he can be a core piece for the Yankees.
