Hello and welcome back to using PLA to evaluate pitchers! This series uses PLA, along with other run expectancy metrics, to break down results and better understand the process behind them.
This week, I will be taking a look at a few starters working their way through the 2026 season. For some more details on PLA and what goes into PLV scores, be sure to check out Nick Pollack and Kyle Bland’s breakdown here.
MacKenzie Gore
After an offseason trade to the Rangers, Mackenzie Gore has been solid in his first season in Texas. Through his first 13 starts, Gore has been about league average in most stats, continuing a trend of mediocre results for the former top prospect originally dealt to Washington in the Juan Soto trade to San Diego.
Gore tends to go four-seam/sinker/slider against lefties, but has 11 walks to 15 strikeouts in 15.1 IP in same-handed matchups. Against righties, Gore exchanges his slider and sinker for cutters, curveballs, and a changeup, which has just a 4.38 PLV. However, Gore has had more success against righties so far in 2026 and throughout his career.
Gore’s four-seam and curveball have been key pieces in his arsenal, with both possessing solid velocity and command as part of a sharp north/south approach. Otherwise, Gore seems to struggle with command and has allowed loud contact without inducing many ground balls. This exposes him to home runs, yet Gore has run a career-best 7.9% home run to fly ball rate in 2026, a number likely to increase as the season progresses.
Overall, Gore’s arsenal still lacks the support of reliable secondaries, preventing him from taking the next step in efficiency. This is reflected in a slightly below-average 3.58 PLA; a top-heavy arsenal without a clear path for limiting home runs or inducing more weak contact still holds him back.
Still, Gore’s ability to generate strikeouts and stay mostly healthy has given him a stretch of decent enough seasons over the last couple of years. Through the rest of 2026, look for Gore to take steps towards reclaiming his uptick in strikeouts from 2025 and limiting walks when possible.
Shane Baz
After a disappointing 2025, Shane Baz has gotten off to another questionable start in 2026, following an infamous offseason trade and contract extension with the Orioles. The 26-year-old righty has struggled to stay healthy in the past, and since finding a consistent spot in the rotation in 2025, has failed to replicate his early-career success.
Like Gore, Baz goes mostly four-seam/curveball against lefties, but struggles against opposite-handed batters, allowing 21 walks to 41 strikeouts in 44.0 IP. Baz has succeeded against righties, however, walking just nine to 25 strikeouts in 33.0 IP.
Baz has turned his cutter into a solid tertiary pitch, supporting his four-seam/curveball with an impressive 70.5% strike rate and decent enough .335 xwOBA against. His sinker has also graded out well by PLV, thanks to strong locations and plus velocity, and a “good enough” changeup has not been good enough to supplement his arsenal against lefties. A 3.32 PLA overall is about league average and matches his mediocre results thus far.
Overall, Baz profiles as a decent starter with promising stuff and a clear problem with lefties. After an especially rough start to the season, however, Baz has been sharp as of late, pitching 7 innings in 3/4 of his most recent outings and earning a quality start in all four. This has seen his curveball become his primary offering, consistently landing in-zone for strikes while his other arsenal supplements chases around the zone. His cutter has been almost a non-factor in this stretch, but remains a key piece in dealing with lefties and bridging his polar four-seam/curveball.
This stretch suggests that, while still an imperfect pitcher, Baz has the means of working deep into games and fully utilizing a weak arsenal, despite a career-worst 20.4% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate on the season. Until his arsenal takes another step forward, or Baz shows further means for handling lefties, his elite upside remains to be seen. Look for Baz to continue taking these steps in his next start, currently projected to be at home against San Diego.
Emerson Hancock
Note: does not include 6/8 start @ Baltimore –
Emerson Hancock has been impressive to start 2026, quickly becoming a regular in a tough Mariners rotation after struggling in his first few Major League seasons.
Hancock’s pair of fastballs has been the difference maker in 2026, with both pitches making remarkable strides after struggling due to mediocre velocity and undesirable pitch shapes in the past. In 2026, here’s a few changes he’s made to the four-seam and sinker:
- FF – -1.2 iVB and -0.5 HB (more cut, out of the “dead zone” and different from sinker), +6% strike rate, 4.55 PLV to 5.13
- SI – -4 iVB, same velocity/HB, +6% strike rate, +10% O-Sw%, 5.00 to 5.39 PLV
This immense uptick in strike-throwing and command in general has allowed his otherwise mediocre secondaries to play up, earning chases and weak contact despite comically low zone rates on all four offerings. While his velocity and stuff on these pitches is underwhelming, his ridiculous ability to work in-zone with his four-seam and sinker allows Hancock to mess with timing and locate through his weaknesses.
This improvement has culminated in a ridiculously impressive jump in K-BB% from an undesirable 8.6% in 2025 (a career-best, at that point) to 20.3% in 2026. The former sixth overall draft pick has made the required changes at the Major League level to take the next step towards plus results; just like Gore and Baz hope to.
Overall, Hancock’s 2.80 ERA has been helped by a career-best 85.7% strand rate and .243 BABIP. Both of those figures will likely regress over a larger sample, and could bring Hancock’s elite results a little closer to his solid 3.17 PLA. Still, Hancock has shown promise as yet another exciting young Mariners starter and has excelled through his first 12 starts. Look for Hancock to remain healthy and effective down the stretch of his first full Major League season in 2026.
