Hello and welcome back to using PLA to evaluate pitchers! This series uses PLA, along with other run expectancy metrics, to break down results and better understand the process behind them.
This week, I will be taking a look at a few starters working their way through the 2026 season. For some more details on PLA and what goes into PLV scores, be sure to check out Nick Pollack and Kyle Bland’s breakdown here.
Bryan Woo
Bryan Woo has had a strange 2026 season, continuing to dominate at home while struggling mightily on the road. While Woo’s peripherals have looked consistently strong, this tendency has hurt his overall value, especially after blossoming as one of the league’s premier starters in recent years.
Woo’s flat VAA has given him one of the league’s best four-seams at T-Mobile Park. Paired with a sinker key to generating called strikes, his 27.3% strikeout minus walk rate at home is among the league’s best. His pair of fastballs are losing some effectiveness on the road, with his 14.3% strikeout minus walk falling closer to league average. The uptick of balls in play on the road have been largely fly balls, and thus a higher SLG, giving him a road ERA nearly triple (5.93) that of his home ERA (2.00).
Woo’s pair of breaking balls and decent changeup create a fairly deep arsenal, but Woo’s key to success has always been executing his fastballs. This development allowed his formerly high walk rate in the minors to fall below 5% over the last three seasons, a mark among the league’s best, and yet his strikeouts never really faltered. This combination of stuff and strike-throwing has given Woo an elite 2.40 PLA in 2026, in line with his last two seasons, and yet his ERA remains a run higher than those years.
For Woo, it’ll come down to finding a way to execute away from home. His stuff looks sharp and, while he has been better at home in past seasons, he’s never struggled to this extent on the road. Look for Woo to get back on track in his next start on the road in Pittsburgh’s PNC Park, a wonderful stadium he’s yet to record a Major League start in.
Nick Martinez
Nick Martinez has impressed through the first half in 2026, firing 15 starts at ~6 IP/start and leading the Rays’ pitching staff with fellow starters Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan. However, McClanahan and Rasmussen are striking out far more batters than Martinez and appear right in the middle of their prime. The 35-year-old Martinez will have to fight regression and a lack of strikeouts to prove his impressive results sustainable down the stretch in 2026.
Martinez’s bread-and-butter changeup was the key that brought him back to MLB in 2022; after leaving for the NPB in 2018, his changeup was likely his biggest development upon returning. The pitch’s 8-run value is among the highest for an off-speed pitch in baseball, trailing only Cristopher Sánchez, yet Martinez’s boom in results this season has come off the back of his sinker/cutter pairing.
This arsenal culminates in a 2.81 PLA, his highest since 2024 (2.65 with the Reds) and firmly above league average. While this lines up with his 2.73 ERA/3.68 FIP, other ERA predictors like xFIP (4.48) and SIERA (4.69) do not find these results sustainable. I would have to agree, given his career-best 6.8% home run to fly ball rate and 83.2% strand rate. While Martinez has sustained similar figures through season’s end in the past, Martinez still projects as a risk against stronger offenses, thanks to his low strikeout and ground ball rate. Look for Martinez to sustain this strong first half in his next start at home against the Diamondbacks.
J.T. Ginn
Like Martinez, Ginn has thrived thanks to a strong off-speed pitch and sinker/cutter pairing to handle both lefties and righties. Ginn’s sinker has stood out the most, generating an elite 33.2 CSW% with plus command and execution. This has helped his changeup generate whiffs and his cutter/slider avoid getting hit too hard.
Ginn’s results have taken the next step in 2026 thanks to his sinker and slider’s unique movement. Both pitches generate ~5 inches more drop than comparable pitches, leading to a unique combination of ground balls and whiffs. Ginn has also sustained his low average exit velocity of 2025 with a healthier hard hit rate overall, bringing his HR/9 down from 1.69 in 2025 to 0.87 in 2026.
Thanks to his sinker generally taking the lead, his overall PLA of 3.52 ranks slightly below average and basically in line with ERA estimators like xFIP (4.20) and SIERA (4.34). Unlike Martinez, however, typical warning signs of regression like HR/FB% (10.0) and LOB% (77.6) aren’t too far from sustainability, with just his BABIP (.257) likely to come up in a larger sample. Still, Ginn’s unique arsenal has given him the means to avoid too much hard contact and frequently generate ground balls. Look for Ginn to hopefully reel in the walks and continue dealing down the stretch in 2026, and in his next start, currently projected to be on the road against the Angels.
