Hello and welcome to Pitcher List’s latest series: Using PLA to Evaluate Pitchers! Every week, I will examine various pitchers and break them down using PLA. There will be various themes and topics each week, which will range from topics such as waiver wire picks, to buy or sell, to awards races, to lefties/righties only, etc. I hope to mix it up as much as possible to keep you all on your toes.
Now, you might be asking, what is PLA?
PLA is an ERA estimator that was created in tandem with Pitch Level Value, which we refer to as PLV. PLV is essentially an all-encompassing stat that measures individual pitches and rates them on a 0-10 scale. The elements that factor into PLV include velocity, movement, release point, location, count, and handedness of batter. We have an excellent primer on this by the one and only Nick Pollack that you can find right here! PLA takes this 0-10 score and translates it to an estimated ERA, which makes it easier to understand and more useful for those looking for help with their fantasy teams.
It’s important to note that PLA isn’t necessarily a catch-all estimator, just as xERA, FIP, SIERA, and pCRA aren’t either. These stats ultimately still measure outcomes, which are largely dependent on how a player is executing that day. ERA estimators are not crystal balls, however, they can provide some insight if taken with a grain of salt. For the purpose of this series, we are going to use PLA as the main factor to evaluate pitchers (hence the series title), but again, no stat is perfect, especially in the complex world of pitching.
Also, stay tuned for other PLV evaluation article series, such as one that will look at individual pitches and another that will use Process+ to evaluate hitters!
Today’s group of pitchers are the guys at the top of the leaderboard, the best of the best, the cream of the crop.
Jacob deGrom – 2.64 PLA
What is there to say about Jacob deGrom that hasn’t been said at this point?
At his peak, he looked like an inner circle hall of famer, perhaps the best baseball thrower ever. Unfortunately, he suffered some injuries and underwent Tommy John surgery during his first season with the Rangers, which led to many people counting him out. But if there’s one thing you can never do, it’s count out deGrom.
deGrom is doing it the same way he always has, with one of the game’s best fastball and perhaps an even better slider. His four-seamer is a PLV darling with its high velocity (he’s still at 97), above-average extension, and flat attack angle. The slider is not to be outdone, as it’s one of the best examples of a high-spin bullet slider, and deGrom locates it better than pretty much anybody, letting it drop out of the zone at a high speed. He also throws a changeup to lefties, which PLV is not a big fan of and a curveball to get early strikes, which PLV grades out well.
Jacob deGrom has been a top 5 pitcher this year without question, and will definitely continue to be as long as he stays healthy. He’s an ace’s ace and it will be interesting to see him continue his push for Cooperstown in Texas.
Ryan Pepiot – 2.85 PLA
So we’ve spoken about Ryan Pepiot previously in this series, talking about him as a “cherry bomb” type who you should put your faith in because PLA loves him. At the time, he was coming off some pretty shaky starts and was looking to settle in as a top 40ish pitcher.
Since then? He’s had an ERA of 1.62 with a WHIP of 0.75 to go along with a 31% K rate and 30% CSW. He’s looked like an ace and has pitched well in line with what PLA showed.
The other estimators aren’t the biggest on Pepiot, and really this comes down to results as opposed to stuff. Pepiot was not getting the strikeouts his stuff would normally generate early in the season, and the crazy conditions at Steinbrenner Field caused him to give up plenty of home runs. A stat like PLV, which isolates performance from outcomes, shows that there was some bad luck in there, as
Pepiot’s foundation is the fastball and the changeup. His four-seamer gets whiffs incessantly, especially when he keeps it upstairs. His changeup was viewed as a potential 80-grade offering when he was a prospect, and you see it shine through in the games where he locates it. His slider and cutter are works in progress, as they have become very similar pitches, with the slider having slightly more depth but the cutter having slightly more velocity. He also has a curve that grades out poorly, so he rarely uses it, though you might see it come out on occasion (he just had two strikeouts with it).
Pepiot is now looking like a borderline ace, something that PLA has showcased all year. Buy now if you can, cause he’s going to keep dominating.
Tarik Skubal – 2.91 PLA
Yep, he’s the best. PLA might have a few guys with a better estimated ERA, but again, it’s Tarik Skubal.
Skubal is third among starters in PLA, achieving that due to his incredible arsenal. His big four pitches all see frequent use, with the changeup driving his success with its near 29% whiff rate. He also has two highly regarded fastballs, a sinker that terrorizes lefties, and a slider for strikes. The high velo lefty with a whiff-worthy changeup has been a popular pitcher archetype in recent years, and Skubal is perhaps the most successful.
Looking at the rest of Skubal’s ERA estimators, it’s pretty impressive how he’s gotten to this level. It feels like the Tigers are back in the Justin Verlander days, this time with the lefty version. He looks on track for the Hall of Fame and is undoubtedly the best pitcher right now, even if he’s *only* third by PLA.
Bryan Woo – 2.93 PLA
We checked on Bryan Woo in a previous article, as he began the season looking like the breakout star pitcher of the year. That has faded a bit, unfortunately, but PLA gives us reason to be optimistic.
Woo’s success is all about fastballs. He has a ridiculously flat four-seamer that gets ridiculous whiff totals and a sinker that he spots with precision. These two pitches really up his PLA, and they account for 70% of his pitches thrown. Woo’s slider is surprisingly well-graded by PLV though, as it actually grades out better than his elite four-seamer. The changeup and sweeper are definitely hit-or-miss offerings though, as neither gets the whiffs or strikes that they are intended to get. He doesn’t throw these often though, so PLV loves 83% of the pitches he throws.
Woo may not be a top-of-the-line ace, but PLV says that he can be. We’ve seen him have some dominant starts and he really brings a great combination of stuff and command.
Nick Pivetta – 3.03 PLA
We spoke about Nick Pivetta very briefly in a recent article, and since then, it’s been pretty up-and-down.
Pivetta has two pitches that have gotten him attention, the four-seamer and the sweeper. His four-seamer has incredible vertical movement, which leads to it getting tons of whiffs. The sweeper also gets plenty of whiffs, which PLV projects as it grades out elite. Pivetta also has a cutter that grades out incredibly well, though the real-world results and usage don’t reflect this. He does have a sinker and slider as well, though, those don’t see much usage, with the sinker grading out especially poorly.
The issue for Pivetta is the longball. He’s an extreme flyball-type pitcher, and as the weather heats up, he gets more prone to flyballs. He pitches now in an environment that suppresses the longball a bit, which is much better than hitter-friendly Boston. Be optimistic with Pivetta that this is the year that he will put up a sub-4 ERA, as the PLA is almost sub-3. Just also exercise caution, as the other estimators do not necessarily reflect the same optimism.
Casey Mize – 3.07 PLA
Seeing Casey Mize back in action and pitching well is awesome! Seeing him as one of the top pitchers by PLA is even more awesome.
The former first overall pick has looked dominant at times this year, putting together some really solid starts that have made him an undeniable piece of an unstoppable Tigers team.
Most people know Mize for his four-seam/splitter combo, but surprisingly, both pitches grade out as being average. The splitter notably sits below the 5.00 mark, though splitters in general tend to not have the best grades per pitch modeling statistics. Mize’s curve is surprisingly his most valuable pitch per PLV, which comes as a bit of a shock as its results haven’t quite been there. The real world results have been better with the slider, which grades out *slightly* worse. Mize also has a great sinker that he uses on righties, and it grades out impressively well, which goes along with his excellent strike rate on the pitch (nearly 80%!)
Mize may not be the most exciting arm, but he’s proving why the Tigers used such an important resource, the first pick, on him. Pick him up if he’s available, as PLA makes it hard to deny his greatness.
