Ward of the Flies
Taylor Ward (BAL): 2-5, HR, 2 R, RBI.
Last night’s home run against Sam Aldeghri was Taylor Ward’s fifth home run of the season. Yep, that’s the same guy who blasted a career best 36 last year. He has had, for my money, one of the weirdest seasons of anyone having not blasted a single tater at home, which, in his case, is the profoundly favorable Camden Yards.
Operating as Baltimore’s leadoff hitter, Ward has tightened his plate approach by cutting his swing rate nearly five ticks. His 13% chase rate dwarfs even the infallible Juan Soto. Seriously, good luck getting this man to swing at anything off the plate. The question is, can he be a difference-maker in non-OBP leagues? I think so. Because, well, we’ve seen it before. Genius, right? Hey, sometimes, it’s that simple.
I have to at least mention that, in Mid-May, Ward indicated a bone bruise in his hand had sapped his power. Maybe there’s something to that, or not. Regardless, his Power, according to PLV, has dropped from 117 to 99, basically league average. Not ideal. Nevertheless, last night’s big fly in his old stamping ground has him with home runs in consecutive games. Dare we dream of an impending heater?
Let’s see how the other hitters did Monday:
Brandon Nimmo (TEX): 3-3, 2B, 2 R, BB, SB.
The perfect line boosted Nimmo’s OPS to .754; that’s 45 points below his career mark. And his .269 batting average isn’t far off what we have come to expect from the Wyoming native. His 122 PLV Power metric suggests it wouldn’t be surprising to see him post a fourth consecutive season of 20+ home runs despite being a little behind the pace. Yeah, he’s sorta boring in standard-sized leagues. Still, I kinda feel like Nimmo and Kyle Tucker wouldn’t be all that dissimilar in a vacuum. Yes, I know that’s not how baseball works, but it’s funny how much context drives perception, isn’t it?
Daulton Varsho (TOR): 1-4, R, BB, SB.
Varsho returned Saturday from a stint on the IL with a wrist issue. The 29-year-old defensive wizard is quietly having a solid season with the stick, hitting .255 with six home runs and six stolen bases across 242 PAs. He has whittled his K rate down to 19.6%, meaning he might not be the batting-average sink he has been over the past few years; however, it has, unsurprisingly, come with a dip in power (100 via PLV).
Sam Antonacci (CWS): 2-4, R, 3 RBI, BB, 2 SB.
Antonacci broke a 3-3 tie in the seventh with a groundball that might have been gloved by a better first baseman. Sorry, Rhys Hoskins. Regardless, two innings later, he snuck another groundball up the middle past Brayan Rocchio; the single to center plated Braden Montgomery for the game-winning score. The 23-year-old rookie has settled in as the White Sox’s leadoff man against RHP, slashing a rock-solid .291/ .391/ .422 with four home runs and 11 SBs through 235 PAs.
Tommy Troy (ARI): 1-4, HR, R, RBI.
Troy obliterated a fastball from Ryne Stanek for his third home run of the season (444 feet, 109.9 EV). The 24-year-old rookie played in left field last night; however, he could earn some reps in center as the D-Backs try to rearrange their lineup with Lawlar on the IL. Troy demonstrated some ability last year, hitting .289 with a 114 wRC+ with Triple-A Reno. He can also steal a bag or two. Those in deep 15-team leagues might want to give him a whirl, considering he also has 2B eligibility.
Curits Mead (WSN): 1-5, HR, R, 2 RBI.
Mead gave the Nats some much-needed breathing room in the seventh by parking a hanging slider from Philly reliever Seth Johnson into the left field seats (389 feet, 99.1 EV). Mead has surprised quite a few people by settling in as the Nats’ three-hole hitter. The 25-year-old is slashing .227/ .333/ .464 with 12 home runs across 225 PAs. He also owns a rock-solid 17.3% K rate and 12.3% BB rate.
Jake McCarthy (COL): 1-4, 3B, 3 RBI.
You don’t often see pitchers’ duels in Colorado, but that’s what we were treated to last night. That is, until the ninth, when the Red Sox handed the ball to Aroldis Chapman, who entered toting a 0.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Nonetheless, the Rockies rallied with three consecutive singles from Rumfield, Goodman, and Carrigg. And then, Jake McCarthy unloaded the bases by slapping a groundball that kicked into the left field corner and ate up Duran. That’s Baseball, Suzyn. McCarthy, meanwhile, started the game hitting sixth against the lefty Jake Bennett, and is slashing .295/ .336/ .465 with 11 stolen bases. As much as I would like to ignore Jake the Former Snake, I can’t deny that he will be a pest in Coors Field as an essentially league-average hitter (98 wRC+) with terrific speed.
Byron Buxton (MIN): 1-4, HR, R, RBI.
Buxton answered Ohtani’s blow by taking Will Klein for a ride to left-center (394 feet, 106.8 EV). That’s 25 home runs in just over 300 PAs. He’s also hitting .279 with a perfectly fine 25.3% K rate and a 99th percentile sprint speed. Since 2025, his 141 wRC+ ranks tenth among qualified hitters. He’s unbelievably talented.
Riley Greene (DET): 1-2, HR, 2 R, RBI, 2 BB.
Greene muscled a 2-2 changeup from Gerrit Cole over the fence in right-center (421 feet, 107.5 EV), giving the Tigers what proved to be an insurmountable 5-1 advantage in the fifth. A year after socking a career best 36 dingers, Greene has managed only nine at around the halfway point. According to PLV, his Power is 127, near two standard deviations above the league average. I suspect a power surge lurking in there.
Kazuma Okamoto (TOR): 2-3, 2B, HR, R, RBI, BB.
Hunter Brown undoubtedly wants this one back: a 3-2, 92 mph sinker that hung about belt-high. That’s 17 home runs for Okamoto, who has slashed .234/ .316/ .460 across 310 PAs during his first year away from Japan. His 125 Power and 121 Process are terrific, but a 32.4% K rate (82 Contact) has pushed him down Toronto’s order and mitigated his upside.
Otto Lopez (MIA): 2-3, 2B, R, BB, SB.
Lopez seemed like an alright dart throw after posting 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases across a career high 594 PAs last year. He has now exceeded last year’s stolen base total while blowing the doors off his ADP, thanks to an MLB-leading .336 batting average; Arraez is nine points behind. His swing decisions aren’t great (92 DV), which you might’ve guessed considering his 4.3% walk rate. My sell-high senses are tingling, but at the same time, is anyone really buying him? I don’t know. This feels like a Vargas rule for hitters.
Featured image by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X) and adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on Bluesky)
