(Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)
Happy Fourth, everybody! I’d like to give a big shout-out to the illustrious Chaz Steinberg, the normal curator of this column who had to take a break this week in his ongoing quest to beat Joey Chestnutt in the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. He’s currently stuffing himself and will be back next week. In the meantime, y’all are stuck with me. Crack that beer, flip those burgers, and kiss the cook – it’s time to dive into this week’s leaderboard. I’ll lay out the numbers and then offer some quick hits and musings on some guys that are currently interesting to me, whether they be making me salivate or pull my hair out. All data is current through Monday’s games (7/2/18.) First, the qualifiers:
RANK | Name | Prev Rank | Diff | SCORE | IP | ERA | PD Score | xK% | K% | xK-K% | BB% | xSLG | SLG-xSLG |
1 | Max Scherzer | 1 | 0 | 104.1% | 120.2 | 2.16 | 108.7% | 34.3% | 36.9% | -2.7% | 6.4% | 0.337 | -0.025 |
2 | Chris Sale | 3 | +1 | 103.9% | 116.0 | 2.41 | 106.0% | 32.9% | 36.1% | -3.2% | 6.4% | 0.321 | -0.023 |
3 | Jacob deGrom | 2 | -1 | 102.8% | 107.1 | 1.84 | 103.1% | 31.0% | 31.5% | -0.5% | 6.6% | 0.316 | -0.024 |
4 | Patrick Corbin | 4 | 0 | 96.8% | 106.0 | 3.14 | 101.7% | 31.2% | 32.0% | -0.9% | 6.7% | 0.388 | -0.061 |
5 | Trevor Bauer | 5 | 0 | 95.7% | 113.2 | 2.45 | 92.8% | 28.1% | 31.6% | -3.5% | 7.7% | 0.343 | -0.031 |
6 | Charlie Morton | 7 | +1 | 95.5% | 102.1 | 2.55 | 91.8% | 28.5% | 31.5% | -3.1% | 9.7% | 0.338 | -0.01 |
7 | Justin Verlander | 6 | -1 | 95.4% | 118.2 | 2.12 | 89.0% | 25.9% | 31.2% | -5.3% | 5.2% | 0.322 | -0.008 |
8 | Aaron Nola | 8 | 0 | 93.0% | 109.0 | 2.48 | 84.9% | 24.0% | 25.2% | -1.3% | 7.3% | 0.326 | -0.032 |
9 | Blake Snell | 12 | +3 | 92.6% | 108.2 | 2.24 | 92.3% | 29.2% | 28.6% | 0.6% | 9.5% | 0.381 | -0.062 |
10 | Luis Severino | 11 | +1 | 92.6% | 118.1 | 1.98 | 90.6% | 26.6% | 30.1% | -3.6% | 6.3% | 0.37 | -0.088 |
11 | Jon Gray | 9 | -2 | 92.0% | 92.0 | 5.77 | 91.1% | 28.8% | 28.9% | -0.1% | 7.0% | 0.38 | 0.075 |
12 | James Paxton | 17 | +5 | 91.3% | 111.2 | 3.39 | 92.7% | 27.5% | 32.4% | -5.0% | 7.2% | 0.4 | -0.04 |
13 | Gerrit Cole | 10 | -3 | 91.3% | 111.2 | 2.5 | 90.1% | 27.5% | 35.0% | -7.6% | 8.4% | 0.383 | -0.071 |
14 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 16 | +2 | 91.3% | 101.1 | 3.55 | 91.2% | 27.8% | 25.7% | 2.1% | 9.2% | 0.391 | -0.034 |
15 | Carlos Carrasco | 13 | -2 | 90.6% | 91.1 | 4.24 | 94.4% | 27.4% | 25.6% | 1.8% | 5.9% | 0.422 | -0.031 |
16 | Jose Berrios | 14 | -2 | 89.4% | 107.1 | 3.52 | 87.5% | 24.4% | 25.9% | -1.5% | 5.6% | 0.392 | -0.029 |
17 | Sean Newcomb | 18 | +1 | 88.7% | 93.0 | 2.71 | 78.0% | 22.4% | 23.8% | -1.4% | 10.6% | 0.337 | -0.016 |
18 | Mike Foltynewicz | 27 | +9 | 88.3% | 89.0 | 2.02 | 77.6% | 23.0% | 29.5% | -6.5% | 11.0% | 0.34 | -0.041 |
19 | CC Sabathia | [UR] | [N/A] | 88.2% | 83.1 | 3.02 | 82.1% | 22.3% | 18.5% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 0.371 | 0.023 |
20 | Tyler Skaggs | 22 | +2 | 88.0% | 92.0 | 2.64 | 85.6% | 24.5% | 26.4% | -1.9% | 7.1% | 0.397 | -0.029 |
21 | Vince Velasquez | 19 | -2 | 88.0% | 88.1 | 4.69 | 82.4% | 25.1% | 28.5% | -3.5% | 9.1% | 0.376 | 0.049 |
22 | Tyler Anderson | 21 | -1 | 87.8% | 93.2 | 4.23 | 84.4% | 24.9% | 21.7% | 3.2% | 7.9% | 0.392 | 0.054 |
23 | Mike Clevinger | 20 | -3 | 87.5% | 110.0 | 3.11 | 83.9% | 23.9% | 22.2% | 1.7% | 8.1% | 0.393 | -0.037 |
24 | Alex Wood | 28 | +4 | 87.4% | 93.2 | 3.84 | 87.8% | 23.4% | 21.8% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 0.42 | -0.026 |
25 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 15 | -10 | 87.3% | 87.2 | 4.11 | 83.2% | 23.4% | 24.8% | -1.4% | 7.4% | 0.39 | 0.007 |
26 | Luis Castillo | 31 | +5 | 86.9% | 94.1 | 5.53 | 94.4% | 28.8% | 22.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 0.471 | -0.006 |
27 | Corey Kluber | 25 | -2 | 86.7% | 119.1 | 2.64 | 83.2% | 22.6% | 26.5% | -4.0% | 2.9% | 0.399 | -0.047 |
28 | Kyle Gibson | 23 | -5 | 86.5% | 100.2 | 3.58 | 84.1% | 24.2% | 22.6% | 1.6% | 9.9% | 0.407 | -0.042 |
29 | Dylan Bundy | 26 | -3 | 86.0% | 96.0 | 3.75 | 94.5% | 27.5% | 27.0% | 0.5% | 7.3% | 0.484 | -0.044 |
30 | Nick Pivetta | 24 | -6 | 85.7% | 86.0 | 4.71 | 85.2% | 25.1% | 28.1% | -3.1% | 7.1% | 0.426 | 0.004 |
31 | Zack Wheeler | 42 | +11 | 84.9% | 88.2 | 4.47 | 81.5% | 22.5% | 22.6% | -0.2% | 8.4% | 0.411 | -0.049 |
32 | Matthew Boyd | 36 | +4 | 84.8% | 88.1 | 4.18 | 75.9% | 21.8% | 20.6% | 1.2% | 9.5% | 0.375 | -0.016 |
33 | Jameson Taillon | 30 | -3 | 84.5% | 93.1 | 4.05 | 77.7% | 20.9% | 22.0% | -1.1% | 7.1% | 0.392 | 0.006 |
34 | J.A. Happ | 34 | 0 | 83.7% | 102.2 | 4.03 | 76.4% | 21.3% | 26.3% | -5.1% | 6.7% | 0.393 | -0.022 |
35 | Zack Greinke | 38 | +3 | 83.5% | 103.0 | 3.41 | 87.9% | 24.4% | 25.7% | -1.3% | 4.5% | 0.473 | -0.051 |
36 | Miles Mikolas | 33 | -3 | 83.2% | 103.1 | 2.61 | 75.9% | 17.6% | 17.5% | 0.1% | 3.2% | 0.396 | -0.064 |
37 | Cole Hamels | 43 | +6 | 83.2% | 102.1 | 4.05 | 88.5% | 25.6% | 23.6% | 2.0% | 8.4% | 0.48 | -0.023 |
38 | Gio Gonzalez | 46 | +8 | 82.7% | 90.2 | 3.77 | 76.5% | 21.8% | 21.8% | 0.0% | 10.9% | 0.407 | -0.013 |
39 | Dallas Keuchel | 39 | 0 | 82.7% | 102.1 | 4.22 | 74.3% | 18.9% | 18.1% | 0.8% | 6.3% | 0.393 | 0.025 |
40 | German Marquez | 45 | +5 | 82.1% | 91.0 | 5.14 | 73.5% | 21.3% | 23.0% | -1.8% | 8.7% | 0.396 | 0.063 |
41 | Clayton Richard | 40 | -1 | 82.0% | 107.0 | 4.29 | 76.9% | 21.3% | 18.7% | 2.6% | 7.4% | 0.419 | -0.022 |
42 | Rick Porcello | 32 | -10 | 81.7% | 111.0 | 3.57 | 72.7% | 18.4% | 22.2% | -3.9% | 5.6% | 0.396 | -0.025 |
43 | Kevin Gausman | 44 | +1 | 81.5% | 102.1 | 4.05 | 83.8% | 23.7% | 20.7% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 0.472 | -0.007 |
44 | Sonny Gray | 41 | -3 | 81.5% | 82.2 | 5.44 | 76.5% | 21.9% | 19.7% | 2.2% | 9.7% | 0.424 | 0.009 |
45 | Tyler Mahle | 55 | +10 | 81.3% | 91.2 | 3.83 | 80.1% | 23.1% | 23.5% | -0.4% | 9.9% | 0.45 | 0.006 |
46 | Kyle Freeland | 49 | +3 | 81.2% | 105.1 | 3.25 | 72.8% | 19.1% | 19.5% | -0.5% | 7.7% | 0.402 | -0.024 |
47 | Brent Suter | [UR] | [N/A] | 81.2% | 86.2 | 4.67 | 79.6% | 21.2% | 19.9% | 1.3% | 4.7% | 0.448 | -0.009 |
48 | Michael Fulmer | 47 | -1 | 81.1% | 94.1 | 4.2 | 80.2% | 21.3% | 20.4% | 0.9% | 7.7% | 0.454 | -0.058 |
49 | Tyson Ross | 37 | -12 | 81.0% | 100.0 | 3.78 | 75.4% | 20.4% | 21.4% | -1.1% | 9.1% | 0.423 | -0.032 |
50 | Marco Gonzales | 56 | +6 | 80.7% | 100.1 | 3.77 | 78.8% | 19.7% | 21.2% | -1.6% | 4.9% | 0.449 | -0.037 |
51 | Zack Godley | 48 | -3 | 80.6% | 92.1 | 5.07 | 81.2% | 24.5% | 21.9% | 2.6% | 11.9% | 0.467 | -0.038 |
52 | Jake Odorizzi | 52 | 0 | 80.0% | 85.2 | 4.62 | 81.8% | 23.6% | 23.5% | 0.1% | 10.4% | 0.478 | -0.01 |
53 | Jose Urena | 50 | -3 | 80.0% | 94.0 | 4.4 | 74.3% | 18.7% | 19.4% | -0.7% | 5.4% | 0.429 | -0.04 |
54 | Julio Teheran | 51 | -3 | 79.6% | 87.2 | 4.21 | 78.0% | 22.7% | 21.2% | 1.5% | 11.3% | 0.458 | -0.04 |
55 | Jake Arrieta | 54 | -1 | 79.2% | 89.0 | 3.54 | 66.5% | 15.5% | 16.4% | -0.9% | 7.8% | 0.387 | -0.006 |
56 | Jhoulys Chacin | 57 | +1 | 78.9% | 97.0 | 3.71 | 70.7% | 19.7% | 18.4% | 1.3% | 10.4% | 0.419 | -0.053 |
57 | Tanner Roark | 59 | +2 | 77.8% | 98.1 | 3.94 | 72.8% | 19.5% | 20.3% | -0.8% | 8.7% | 0.448 | -0.047 |
58 | Steven Matz | 71 | +13 | 77.5% | 83.1 | 3.46 | 63.6% | 18.3% | 21.7% | -3.4% | 9.1% | 0.391 | 0.012 |
59 | Luke Weaver | 62 | +3 | 77.3% | 89.0 | 5.16 | 73.5% | 20.7% | 20.9% | -0.3% | 8.7% | 0.459 | -0.032 |
60 | Sean Manaea | 64 | +4 | 76.8% | 106.2 | 3.38 | 77.3% | 20.2% | 17.9% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 0.491 | -0.123 |
61 | David Price | 53 | -8 | 76.7% | 96.2 | 4.28 | 70.6% | 18.4% | 22.9% | -4.6% | 8.2% | 0.448 | -0.015 |
62 | Jose Quintana | 61 | -1 | 76.4% | 85.2 | 4.31 | 68.9% | 18.3% | 21.5% | -3.2% | 10.7% | 0.44 | -0.016 |
63 | Michael Wacha | 68 | +5 | 76.3% | 84.1 | 3.2 | 72.9% | 21.0% | 20.0% | 0.9% | 10.1% | 0.468 | -0.124 |
64 | Mike Fiers | [UR] | [N/A] | 75.8% | 92.2 | 3.79 | 72.2% | 18.4% | 17.4% | 1.0% | 5.1% | 0.471 | -0.018 |
65 | Chad Bettis | 67 | +2 | 75.7% | 95.1 | 5.1 | 71.0% | 19.4% | 16.9% | 2.5% | 9.3% | 0.464 | -0.01 |
66 | Chase Anderson | 76 | +10 | 75.7% | 88.1 | 4.18 | 69.4% | 18.7% | 19.1% | -0.5% | 9.8% | 0.454 | -0.055 |
67 | Reynaldo Lopez | 69 | +2 | 75.7% | 100.1 | 3.68 | 69.4% | 19.1% | 17.1% | 2.0% | 9.8% | 0.454 | -0.065 |
68 | Kyle Hendricks | 58 | -10 | 75.6% | 92.0 | 4.21 | 72.9% | 19.2% | 18.3% | 0.9% | 7.6% | 0.478 | -0.049 |
69 | Jakob Junis | 63 | -6 | 75.6% | 101.2 | 5.13 | 75.5% | 19.8% | 20.9% | -1.2% | 6.4% | 0.495 | -0.008 |
70 | Felix Hernandez | 73 | +3 | 75.5% | 100.1 | 5.11 | 72.4% | 18.8% | 19.4% | -0.7% | 8.2% | 0.476 | -0.046 |
71 | James Shields | 65 | -6 | 75.5% | 113.0 | 4.06 | 72.5% | 19.7% | 16.1% | 3.6% | 9.1% | 0.477 | -0.108 |
72 | Marco Estrada | 66 | -6 | 75.3% | 89.1 | 4.53 | 75.9% | 20.6% | 18.5% | 2.1% | 6.4% | 0.502 | -0.015 |
73 | Trevor Williams | 72 | -1 | 75.2% | 91.2 | 4.22 | 67.9% | 17.3% | 17.9% | -0.6% | 7.9% | 0.45 | -0.048 |
74 | Ivan Nova | 70 | -4 | 75.0% | 87.1 | 4.02 | 72.4% | 18.6% | 18.5% | 0.1% | 4.1% | 0.483 | -0.042 |
75 | Jon Lester | 74 | -1 | 74.3% | 100.0 | 2.25 | 70.4% | 19.3% | 19.3% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 0.479 | -0.125 |
76 | Danny Duffy | 77 | +1 | 73.9% | 94.2 | 4.94 | 76.3% | 21.7% | 19.8% | 1.9% | 11.0% | 0.523 | -0.063 |
77 | Derek Holland | 75 | -2 | 73.9% | 88.2 | 4.36 | 71.2% | 20.2% | 21.9% | -1.8% | 9.8% | 0.489 | -0.042 |
78 | Mike Minor | [UR] | [N/A] | 73.0% | 85.1 | 4.64 | 75.8% | 20.6% | 19.8% | 0.8% | 5.4% | 0.532 | -0.066 |
79 | Sal Romano | 81 | +2 | 71.5% | 90.0 | 5.3 | 65.7% | 16.5% | 16.8% | -0.3% | 9.5% | 0.485 | -0.017 |
80 | Jason Hammel | 83 | +3 | 70.7% | 100.1 | 5.56 | 73.8% | 18.5% | 14.5% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 0.55 | -0.084 |
81 | Ian Kennedy | 79 | -2 | 70.4% | 91.2 | 5.11 | 69.5% | 17.6% | 20.9% | -3.3% | 8.2% | 0.525 | -0.047 |
82 | Chris Stratton | 80 | -2 | 70.2% | 91.0 | 4.45 | 66.7% | 17.8% | 18.1% | -0.3% | 9.0% | 0.508 | -0.08 |
83 | Mike Leake | 87 | +4 | 70.1% | 107.2 | 4.01 | 71.0% | 16.6% | 14.9% | 1.7% | 5.4% | 0.539 | -0.106 |
84 | Lucas Giolito | 82 | -2 | 69.4% | 84.2 | 6.59 | 63.0% | 17.7% | 13.2% | 4.5% | 13.2% | 0.495 | -0.046 |
85 | Chad Kuhl | 84 | -1 | 69.0% | 85.0 | 4.55 | 69.8% | 20.5% | 21.7% | -1.2% | 8.9% | 0.546 | -0.083 |
86 | Andrew Cashner | 85 | -1 | 68.9% | 88.1 | 4.48 | 62.2% | 15.9% | 18.2% | -2.4% | 10.2% | 0.496 | 0 |
87 | Daniel Mengden | 86 | -1 | 68.8% | 90.2 | 4.47 | 68.5% | 16.7% | 14.5% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 0.54 | -0.097 |
88 | Bartolo Colon | 88 | 0 | 62.4% | 87.2 | 4.93 | 60.1% | 11.7% | 13.5% | -1.9% | 4.1% | 0.569 | -0.049 |
A couple minor changes have been made in the table since last time:
- Added IP, by request
- Changed “Predicted K%” to “xK%” (to save space)
- Dropped the word “Pitcher” from Pitcher Score, now it’s just “Score” (also to save space)
For Reference:
- “PD Score” is short for plate discipline score, a combined metric of strikeout ability weighted as: 3 points O-Swing%, 3 points Contact%, 3 points SwStr%, 1 point F-Strike%.
- “Score” is a combined metric weighted equally between PD Score and xSLG.
- For both luck indication columns (xK%-K% and SLG-xSLG) positive numbers indicate bad luck so far (likely to regress positively) while negative numbers indicate good luck so far (likely to regress negatively). A higher SLG value is bad for pitchers, and I wanted it to be easy to remember: Positive Numbers = Good Outlook.
- IP, ERA, K%, BB%, and SLG are not included in the calculations, these are only included in the table for reference.
- For any newcomers, to understand the concepts behind these numbers I would recommend reading my introduction piece.
#19 CC Sabathia (SP, New York Yankees)
Sabathia makes a cannonball splash onto the qualified leaderboard, slotting right into the top 20. I wouldn’t want him devouring everything at my BBQ, but I DEFINITELY wouldn’t mind this old workhorse on my fantasy team. In a truly shocking development, Sabathia has fully re-invented himself as a “crafty lefty,” a far cry from the fire-breathing behemoth he once was, but effective nonetheless. He is pitching exceptionally well, and only three qualified pitchers have more of a disparity between their K% and xK% (22.3% vs. 28.8%). An uptick in strikeouts could be on the way, and the big man should continue to rack up wins all summer with backing from a killer offense and one of baseball’s most lethal bullpens. A real Yankee Doodle Dandy, if you will.
#26 Luis Castillo (SP, Cincinnati Reds)
Castillo’s season has been kind of a melted poopsicle so far, turning in sub-par outing after sub-par outing with plenty offensive “fireworks” coming from opposing lineups. He continues to show well by plate discipline metrics, slotting in at number 26 and featuring the largest disparity between his K% and xK% of all qualified pitchers (xK-K% of +6.5%, indicating poor strikeout luck.) His most recent start was one of his best this year (6+ shutout innings against the admittedly lowly ChiSox) and I still retain optimism about his second half. I am curious to see how he’ll fare against Chicago’s superior team this Sunday.
#33 Jameson Taillon (SP, Pittsburgh Pirates)
Taillon has been pretty frustrating this year, but I am encouraged by his placement on this list in the 30s. He’s pitching reasonably well, and has the look of someone who’s been getting a tad unlucky. If you bail on him now, you might be left feeling like the last one to hop into the pool later on in the season. OK, that reference felt forced. But forced references are part of the human experience, no? WELCOME TO EARTH.
Look at this table showing Taillon’s xStats vs. performance so far:
Avg | OBP | SLG | BABIP | BACON | |
x | .232 | .290 | .376 | .280 | .307 |
Actual | .243 | .325 | .389 | .293 | .321 |
Taillon’s strong PD metrics and good batted ball profile (generating GBs, DBs, at a rate greater than league average and also suppressing drives at a rate better than league average) make him a sneaky trade target for your second half run. Finish spiking that watermelon and make your league’s owner an offer!
And now, for those injured studs and plucky try-hards, here is the data for the non-qualified SP (10 IP minimum):
Name | Team | SCORE | IP | ERA | PD Score | xK% | K% | xK-K% | BB% | xSLG | SLG-xSLG |
Matt Strahm | Padres | 104.8% | 13.1 | 1.35 | 103.1% | 31.1% | 35.3% | -4.2% | 5.9% | 0.290 | -0.061 |
Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 100.3% | 27.2 | 2.28 | 95.6% | 30.0% | 37.7% | -7.8% | 11.3% | 0.300 | -0.098 |
Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 98.8% | 64.2 | 3.06 | 99.1% | 30.6% | 28.3% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 0.343 | 0.021 |
Shohei Ohtani | Angels | 96.9% | 49.1 | 3.10 | 99.1% | 34.0% | 30.5% | 3.5% | 10.0% | 0.368 | -0.048 |
Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | 95.4% | 18.0 | 3.00 | 92.0% | 26.4% | 28.4% | -2.1% | 10.8% | 0.342 | -0.009 |
Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 94.1% | 13.0 | 2.77 | 78.9% | 20.3% | 20.8% | -0.6% | 7.6% | 0.271 | 0.056 |
Max Fried | Braves | 94.1% | 11.2 | 0.77 | 83.1% | 28.3% | 36.2% | -7.9% | 14.9% | 0.300 | -0.069 |
Felix Pena | Angels | 93.0% | 14.1 | 2.51 | 97.2% | 30.7% | 27.4% | 3.3% | 8.1% | 0.408 | -0.051 |
Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 91.8% | 74.0 | 3.41 | 93.1% | 28.3% | 27.7% | 0.6% | 9.2% | 0.396 | -0.021 |
Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 91.7% | 68.0 | 2.65 | 83.9% | 22.8% | 28.9% | -6.2% | 2.6% | 0.337 | 0.068 |
Shane Bieber | Indians | 91.3% | 24.1 | 2.22 | 88.7% | 26.8% | 26.2% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 0.374 | 0.038 |
Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 90.7% | 38.2 | 4.89 | 95.9% | 30.1% | 34.3% | -4.2% | 11.8% | 0.430 | 0.005 |
Ryne Stanek | Rays | 90.1% | 12.2 | 1.42 | 90.3% | 27.7% | 30.6% | -2.9% | 12.2% | 0.401 | -0.238 |
Johnny Cueto | Giants | 89.8% | 32.0 | 0.84 | 76.2% | 22.3% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 0.311 | -0.105 |
Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 89.6% | 61.2 | 2.92 | 84.8% | 26.6% | 29.1% | -2.6% | 7.2% | 0.371 | -0.01 |
Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 89.5% | 72.2 | 4.58 | 98.1% | 28.8% | 24.8% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 0.460 | -0.019 |
Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 89.1% | 48.2 | 2.77 | 92.2% | 28.5% | 25.0% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 0.427 | -0.074 |
Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 88.8% | 51.1 | 2.63 | 72.4% | 19.1% | 26.7% | -7.6% | 5.5% | 0.298 | -0.025 |
Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 88.6% | 78.2 | 3.20 | 76.8% | 21.2% | 22.8% | -1.7% | 12.8% | 0.331 | -0.021 |
Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | 87.5% | 22.2 | 3.57 | 87.0% | 22.7% | 17.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 0.413 | -0.038 |
Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 87.5% | 27.1 | 3.62 | 79.9% | 21.5% | 19.8% | 1.7% | 10.3% | 0.366 | -0.01 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 87.1% | 29.2 | 2.12 | 79.3% | 24.8% | 31.3% | -6.5% | 8.7% | 0.367 | -0.059 |
Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 87.1% | 12.2 | 2.13 | 74.7% | 20.0% | 27.7% | -7.8% | 0.0% | 0.337 | 0.019 |
Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 86.8% | 40.2 | 2.43 | 83.8% | 22.7% | 18.2% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 0.401 | -0.088 |
Brad Keller | Royals | 86.4% | 33.2 | 2.14 | 73.9% | 19.9% | 14.8% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 0.340 | -0.072 |
Garrett Richards | Angels | 86.3% | 68.1 | 3.42 | 84.0% | 25.8% | 26.8% | -1.0% | 11.0% | 0.410 | -0.05 |
Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 86.1% | 40.1 | 3.79 | 79.1% | 20.8% | 20.3% | 0.4% | 6.2% | 0.379 | 0.019 |
Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 85.4% | 57.0 | 2.84 | 82.4% | 23.1% | 27.2% | -4.2% | 5.2% | 0.410 | -0.019 |
John Gant | Cardinals | 85.4% | 27.1 | 4.61 | 80.6% | 22.9% | 21.9% | 1.0% | 10.5% | 0.398 | -0.088 |
Zach Eflin | Phillies | 84.8% | 56.2 | 3.02 | 78.5% | 22.1% | 24.5% | -2.4% | 6.0% | 0.393 | -0.03 |
Wilmer Font | Rays | 84.5% | 21.0 | 1.71 | 70.7% | 20.5% | 22.0% | -1.6% | 9.8% | 0.345 | -0.075 |
Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 84.4% | 43.1 | 4.15 | 82.3% | 22.1% | 21.6% | 0.5% | 7.2% | 0.424 | 0.018 |
Seth Lugo | Mets | 83.9% | 23.0 | 3.52 | 77.3% | 21.6% | 26.5% | -4.9% | 5.9% | 0.397 | -0.003 |
Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 83.5% | 80.2 | 3.46 | 85.1% | 24.5% | 29.1% | -4.6% | 5.8% | 0.454 | -0.055 |
Caleb Smith | Marlins | 83.3% | 77.1 | 4.19 | 82.9% | 24.3% | 27.0% | -2.7% | 10.1% | 0.442 | -0.054 |
Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 83.1% | 50.0 | 3.06 | 76.1% | 20.1% | 22.7% | -2.7% | 7.4% | 0.400 | 0.001 |
Chris Archer | Rays | 83.0% | 76.1 | 4.24 | 86.4% | 26.4% | 23.7% | 2.7% | 8.1% | 0.469 | -0.05 |
Yu Darvish | Cubs | 82.7% | 40.0 | 4.95 | 78.2% | 24.1% | 27.2% | -3.2% | 11.7% | 0.418 | 0.007 |
Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 82.0% | 33.2 | 3.21 | 75.7% | 20.3% | 20.1% | 0.1% | 5.6% | 0.411 | -0.009 |
Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 81.8% | 38.1 | 2.58 | 73.7% | 18.0% | 18.9% | -0.9% | 7.6% | 0.400 | -0.039 |
Andrew Heaney | Angels | 81.8% | 82.0 | 3.95 | 81.5% | 23.1% | 22.3% | 0.7% | 7.0% | 0.453 | -0.039 |
Fernando Romero | Twins | 81.0% | 51.1 | 4.38 | 79.0% | 22.8% | 19.6% | 3.2% | 8.5% | 0.446 | -0.037 |
Nick Kingham | Pirates | 80.5% | 38.1 | 4.70 | 83.0% | 24.1% | 22.4% | 1.7% | 6.1% | 0.480 | -0.033 |
Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | 80.0% | 10.2 | 2.53 | 91.4% | 23.4% | 22.7% | 0.6% | 4.6% | 0.543 | -0.091 |
Nick Tropeano | Angels | 79.8% | 54.0 | 4.83 | 83.7% | 25.5% | 19.6% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 0.494 | -0.019 |
Mike Soroka | Braves | 79.8% | 25.2 | 3.51 | 78.7% | 22.0% | 18.6% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 0.461 | -0.048 |
Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 79.7% | 41.1 | 3.92 | 79.3% | 19.5% | 21.9% | -2.4% | 3.8% | 0.466 | -0.032 |
Junior Guerra | Brewers | 79.7% | 82.2 | 3.05 | 74.9% | 21.3% | 23.3% | -2.1% | 9.0% | 0.437 | -0.064 |
Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 79.7% | 58.1 | 3.09 | 79.7% | 19.3% | 18.6% | 0.7% | 5.1% | 0.469 | -0.078 |
Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 79.2% | 48.1 | 3.91 | 78.3% | 20.0% | 22.6% | -2.6% | 5.0% | 0.466 | -0.07 |
Jordan Lyles | Padres | 78.8% | 47.0 | 4.79 | 72.6% | 17.9% | 19.9% | -2.1% | 5.5% | 0.433 | 0.051 |
Trevor Richards | Marlins | 78.8% | 48.0 | 5.06 | 70.9% | 19.0% | 20.5% | -1.6% | 10.5% | 0.422 | -0.004 |
Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 78.7% | 48.0 | 2.63 | 75.2% | 20.2% | 20.3% | -0.1% | 4.3% | 0.452 | -0.049 |
Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 78.7% | 73.1 | 4.54 | 67.9% | 19.9% | 20.6% | -0.7% | 19.4% | 0.404 | -0.059 |
Yonny Chirinos | Rays | 78.3% | 22.2 | 4.37 | 75.9% | 20.1% | 21.0% | -0.9% | 8.0% | 0.462 | -0.043 |
Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 78.3% | 20.2 | 5.23 | 70.7% | 18.4% | 19.1% | -0.7% | 6.7% | 0.427 | -0.002 |
Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 78.3% | 58.0 | 3.26 | 73.9% | 22.0% | 25.2% | -3.2% | 9.7% | 0.449 | -0.041 |
Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 78.1% | 43.2 | 3.71 | 70.1% | 17.1% | 16.6% | 0.5% | 5.5% | 0.426 | 0.005 |
Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 77.9% | 79.2 | 4.52 | 76.6% | 22.5% | 18.7% | 3.8% | 12.6% | 0.472 | -0.085 |
Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 77.7% | 29.2 | 4.55 | 72.1% | 18.4% | 17.3% | 1.1% | 7.1% | 0.445 | -0.033 |
Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 77.4% | 28.1 | 4.45 | 66.7% | 16.9% | 20.3% | -3.5% | 7.6% | 0.413 | 0.049 |
Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 76.8% | 22.1 | 2.82 | 64.4% | 13.7% | 18.4% | -4.7% | 8.2% | 0.406 | -0.133 |
Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 76.7% | 67.2 | 3.99 | 78.7% | 23.3% | 18.7% | 4.6% | 13.0% | 0.502 | -0.128 |
Jaime Barria | Angels | 75.1% | 55.2 | 3.40 | 82.6% | 23.8% | 20.0% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 0.549 | -0.12 |
Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 74.9% | 38.2 | 2.56 | 74.6% | 18.9% | 20.3% | -1.4% | 4.6% | 0.499 | -0.126 |
Matt Harvey | Reds | 73.8% | 74.2 | 4.46 | 66.8% | 17.5% | 18.3% | -0.8% | 5.1% | 0.461 | -0.035 |
Andrew Suarez | Giants | 73.6% | 71.0 | 4.18 | 66.5% | 15.7% | 22.6% | -7.0% | 5.1% | 0.462 | -0.027 |
Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 73.0% | 41.1 | 5.23 | 75.9% | 21.4% | 23.6% | -2.3% | 9.9% | 0.533 | -0.12 |
Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | 72.9% | 18.0 | 4.00 | 55.9% | 14.0% | 17.1% | -3.1% | 15.9% | 0.400 | 0.035 |
Steven Wright | Red Sox | 72.7% | 24.0 | 4.13 | 67.0% | 19.0% | 16.8% | 2.2% | 9.9% | 0.478 | -0.122 |
Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 72.6% | 78.2 | 4.92 | 65.9% | 15.7% | 19.2% | -3.5% | 6.2% | 0.471 | 0.027 |
Frankie Montas | Athletics | 72.4% | 42.1 | 3.83 | 62.8% | 16.3% | 15.2% | 1.1% | 7.1% | 0.453 | -0.01 |
Dylan Covey | White Sox | 72.4% | 46.2 | 4.82 | 63.4% | 15.9% | 17.1% | -1.2% | 10.9% | 0.457 | -0.054 |
Zach Davies | Brewers | 72.3% | 43.0 | 5.23 | 69.1% | 18.7% | 16.3% | 2.4% | 9.0% | 0.497 | -0.003 |
Eric Lauer | Padres | 72.2% | 62.0 | 5.08 | 63.5% | 16.5% | 18.8% | -2.4% | 9.4% | 0.461 | 0.039 |
Dan Straily | Marlins | 70.9% | 59.1 | 4.70 | 77.2% | 22.3% | 20.1% | 2.2% | 11.2% | 0.569 | -0.11 |
Ty Blach | Giants | 70.9% | 60.2 | 4.90 | 60.7% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 8.5% | 0.460 | -0.047 |
Jake Faria | Rays | 70.4% | 47.2 | 5.48 | 68.1% | 19.0% | 18.2% | 0.7% | 10.8% | 0.516 | -0.093 |
Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | 69.6% | 22.0 | 4.50 | 71.6% | 21.2% | 18.7% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 0.549 | 0.011 |
Rich Hill | Dodgers | 69.5% | 42.1 | 4.68 | 66.8% | 16.7% | 24.3% | -7.6% | 8.5% | 0.519 | -0.034 |
Matt Wisler | Braves | 68.7% | 17.1 | 3.63 | 73.6% | 20.7% | 18.6% | 2.1% | 7.1% | 0.575 | -0.16 |
Adam Plutko | Indians | 68.2% | 34.2 | 4.67 | 71.6% | 17.3% | 16.9% | 0.4% | 6.3% | 0.568 | -0.034 |
Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 67.5% | 10.0 | 1.80 | 55.7% | 13.8% | 17.1% | -3.3% | 7.3% | 0.471 | -0.076 |
Doug Fister | Rangers | 66.4% | 66.0 | 4.50 | 55.9% | 11.8% | 13.8% | -2.0% | 6.6% | 0.487 | -0.031 |
Daniel Gossett | Athletics | 64.9% | 24.1 | 5.18 | 66.2% | 15.5% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 7.8% | 0.576 | -0.081 |
Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | 62.7% | 13.0 | 3.46 | 57.6% | 15.1% | 16.1% | -1.1% | 8.9% | 0.548 | -0.156 |
Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 61.0% | 33.0 | 3.55 | 65.1% | 18.0% | 16.7% | 1.3% | 9.9% | 0.620 | -0.222 |
Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 56.9% | 69.2 | 4.52 | 60.7% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 1.4% | 5.9% | 0.646 | -0.14 |
Lance Lynn | Twins | 84.7% | 80.1 | 5.49 | 78.8% | 22.7% | 22.2% | 0.5% | 13.5% | 0.396 | 0.021 |
Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 81.3% | 23.2 | 6.46 | 73.0% | 18.2% | 16.2% | 2.0% | 5.1% | 0.402 | 0.027 |
Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 77.8% | 17.2 | 6.11 | 67.2% | 15.7% | 18.9% | -3.2% | 8.1% | 0.410 | 0.016 |
Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 78.9% | 61.2 | 5.55 | 69.9% | 17.9% | 16.7% | 1.2% | 9.1% | 0.414 | 0.069 |
Domingo German | Yankees | 94.9% | 49.0 | 5.88 | 102.1% | 31.8% | 27.1% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 0.416 | 0.044 |
Caleb Ferguson | Dodgers | 80.9% | 10.2 | 7.59 | 78.9% | 26.7% | 25.0% | 1.7% | 12.5% | 0.447 | -0.047 |
Luis Perdomo | Padres | 74.4% | 14.0 | 8.36 | 68.5% | 21.2% | 22.1% | -0.9% | 11.7% | 0.465 | 0.058 |
Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 77.2% | 49.1 | 6.02 | 75.3% | 21.7% | 18.6% | 3.1% | 8.6% | 0.473 | -0.054 |
Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 72.1% | 37.0 | 6.81 | 65.2% | 16.7% | 20.8% | -4.2% | 12.1% | 0.473 | 0.07 |
Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | 72.2% | 15.2 | 6.32 | 65.8% | 19.2% | 18.1% | 1.1% | 12.5% | 0.476 | -0.083 |
Dillon Peters | Marlins | 70.0% | 24.2 | 5.84 | 62.0% | 16.3% | 14.4% | 1.9% | 11.7% | 0.480 | -0.011 |
David Hess | Orioles | 72.7% | 47.0 | 5.94 | 69.3% | 16.7% | 12.4% | 4.3% | 9.1% | 0.492 | 0.016 |
Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 71.0% | 61.1 | 6.16 | 68.1% | 19.0% | 19.9% | -1.0% | 11.0% | 0.508 | 0.004 |
Jason Vargas | Mets | 77.9% | 37.2 | 8.60 | 82.2% | 22.9% | 17.8% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 0.509 | 0.104 |
Alex Cobb | Orioles | 68.1% | 74.2 | 6.75 | 63.0% | 14.8% | 14.6% | 0.2% | 6.1% | 0.512 | 0.054 |
Brandon Finnegan | Reds | 68.0% | 20.2 | 7.40 | 63.0% | 16.0% | 13.6% | 2.4% | 14.6% | 0.513 | 0.04 |
Matt Moore | Rangers | 74.1% | 55.0 | 8.02 | 75.2% | 20.1% | 14.7% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 0.513 | 0.056 |
Ben Lively | Phillies | 67.2% | 23.2 | 6.85 | 62.8% | 17.9% | 19.1% | -1.3% | 8.7% | 0.522 | 0.023 |
Bryan Mitchell | Padres | 59.3% | 32.0 | 6.47 | 47.1% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 1.4% | 16.9% | 0.523 | -0.027 |
Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 69.9% | 35.2 | 6.56 | 68.8% | 17.7% | 15.7% | 2.0% | 13.9% | 0.527 | -0.084 |
Eric Skoglund | Royals | 69.1% | 49.2 | 6.70 | 70.3% | 17.3% | 18.0% | -0.7% | 6.5% | 0.548 | -0.018 |
Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 67.0% | 34.1 | 7.60 | 67.6% | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 0.557 | -0.015 |
Erick Fedde | Nationals | 68.0% | 27.0 | 6.00 | 70.3% | 18.7% | 16.4% | 2.3% | 7.8% | 0.562 | -0.005 |
Joe Biagini | Blue Jays | 64.9% | 18.2 | 7.71 | 65.9% | 16.7% | 14.4% | 2.3% | 10.0% | 0.574 | -0.08 |
Brett Anderson | Athletics | 64.9% | 15.1 | 7.63 | 67.1% | 18.0% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 0.582 | 0.009 |
John Lamb | Angels | 66.7% | 10.0 | 7.20 | 72.3% | 17.8% | 22.0% | -4.3% | 8.0% | 0.593 | 0.124 |
Hector Santiago | White Sox | 61.1% | 32.1 | 6.12 | 62.0% | 16.5% | 15.9% | 0.6% | 15.2% | 0.598 | -0.027 |
Homer Bailey | Reds | 62.1% | 62.0 | 6.68 | 64.2% | 15.8% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 8.2% | 0.600 | -0.036 |
Martin Perez | Rangers | 55.1% | 22.1 | 9.67 | 51.8% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 0.6% | 10.1% | 0.610 | 0.06 |
Steven Brault | Pirates | 63.8% | 26.0 | 5.54 | 69.2% | 20.0% | 13.4% | 6.6% | 12.5% | 0.611 | -0.213 |
Ryan Carpenter | Tigers | 57.4% | 12.0 | 6.75 | 58.5% | 14.9% | 10.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 0.624 | -0.047 |
Carson Fulmer | White Sox | 55.3% | 31.0 | 8.13 | 56.5% | 14.6% | 16.6% | -2.1% | 15.3% | 0.640 | -0.136 |
Chris Tillman | Orioles | 51.6% | 26.2 | 10.46 | 49.4% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 12.4% | 0.641 | 0.011 |
Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 56.8% | 12.1 | 12.41 | 66.3% | 15.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 0.684 | 0.099 |
Josh Tomlin | Indians | 55.9% | 30.0 | 8.10 | 73.8% | 19.1% | 12.9% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 0.746 | -0.019 |
Marcus Stroman (SP, Toronto Blue Jays)
Stroman has been a solid fantasy #2-3 for a few years, but his season so far has been uglier than your dad’s Tommy Bahama shirt. And that was BEFORE it got accidentally covered in barbecue sauce. Astute owners should recognize this as a buying opportunity, however, and he may even be sitting on your league’s wire. All of Stroman’s season long stats are going to look pretty awful still, but his two recent starts off the DL (1-0, 12.0 IP, 9k, 1 ER allowed against LAA and DET) have me very interested in him heading into the All-Star break. I think he has the potential to be a huge difference maker if he’s back to being healthy, as he appears to be.
Zach Eflin (SP, Philadelphia Phillies)
Zach Eflin has been unstoppable lately, like Uncle Sam coming for your taxes. He’s really benefited from a big uptick in strikeouts, currently sitting at a 24.6% rate which is near double what he featured in the past two years. He’s seen a bump in velocity, as highlighted by our very own King and Tyrant Nick Pollack over on Rotographs back in May, and it seems to have helped as his fastball has accrued a pVal of 4.3 so far after being a mediocre offering in previous seasons. His current score of 84.8% would place him in the top 30s of qualifiers. I’m thinking he looks pretty legit- see if you can pry him away from a league-mate who doesn’t fully believe.
Alex Cobb (SP, Baltimore Orioles)
Corn on the cob is traditionally consumed on the 4th of July.
And there we have it! Stay safe, drink up, and we’ll see ya next time.
This is a lot to digest. Spent nearly an hour reviewing the introduction and examining the stats. What I took away is that a pitcher like Taillon looks good because of his score and his batted ball profile. Are there any others who stand out as similar trade targets for a team in need of pitching?
Also, a Mets fan wants my Nimmo and is offering Berrios if I throw in another SP. I can package Nimmo with Tanaka, G. Richards, Heaney, or Nick Pollack’s favorite Nick Pivetta. What’s the best way to use this analysis to decide which SP to unload? Just look at the rankings overall? It’s a H2H categories league, so getting Ks doesn’t help if my pitcher pulls a Jon Gray and annihilates my ERA and WHIP. Berrios seems like a consensus top 20 list for nearly every credible analyst. But this PD ranking would seem to indicate that there’s not a ton of separation between him and some of SPs I would have to package with Nimmo. How would you handle this ?
And Happy 4th to you all! Love the work you gents do!
I think the best way to go about it is to look at pitchers with nice scores whose numbers and reputation maybe do not line up with how well they are actually pitching. Aside from the aforementioned Sabathia, Taillon, Castillo, Eflin and Stroman, I think it might be easiest to sift through the non-qualifiers. Loaisiga, Musgrove, and Kingham all have nice skillsets and could probably be had on the cheap.
As far as your trade scenario, you’re absolutely right – a lot of the arms you’d be offering rank similarly to Berrios by this analysis. But this analysis is only one piece of the puzzle, and you need to take team, durability, IPS, etc into account. You can also look at the xK-K% and SLG-xSLG columns to see who may have been lucky/unlucky so far – a positive number indicates some good regression may be on the come. Garrett Richards is negative on both of these columns and has a lengthy injury history- I’m one of the low men on him at PL and I’d have no problem shipping Nimmo and Richards for Berrios.