Jack Suwinski had a disappointing 2024 season after showing an impressive power and speed skillset the year prior. In 2023, he hit 26 home runs along with 13 stolen bases, which only 23 hitters met, while slashing .224/.339/.454 (112 wRC+) across 534 plate appearances.
Suwinski is a three-true outcome style hitter with excellent quality of contact metrics. Despite these noteworthy marks, Suwinski is still a flawed player with serious swing-and-miss issues and limited exposure to same-handed pitching. On top of that, his contact quality cratered in 2024 and contributed to his results falling off drastically with a miserable slash line of .182/264/.324 (62 wRC+) in 277 plate appearances. However, the 26-year-old outfielder established an intriguing skillset and perhaps there is reason to keep the door cracked open for Suwinski in 2025.
Batted Ball Fluctuation
Suwinski regressed in several different categories in 2024. A major contributor to Suwinski’s down year was his fly ball rate plummeting. In his first two big league seasons, he was among the top 10 hitters in fly ball rate (minimum 800 PAs). In 2024, he was the biggest faller in fly ball rate and the biggest riser in ground ball rate.
His calling card is his patience at the plate and his ability to produce barrels. His 14.2% barrel rate from 2022-2023 ranked 17th between sluggers Teoscar Hernández and Bryce Harper (minimum 800 PAs). That number fell off to a more modest 8.8% as he hit the ball into the dirt at the highest rate since his days in rookie ball. He has elevated the ball consistently throughout his professional career which makes his 2024 season more confounding.
Furthermore, he was making the most of his fly balls by hitting them to the pull side which is the most valuable of any batted ball and direction. But that also took a dip this past season. Here are his percentile ranks in pulled-fly-ball rate by season:
- 2022: 99th percentile
- 2023: 91st percentile
- 2024: 53rd percentile
Obviously, with the heavy amount of whiff in Suwinski’s profile, putting the ball in the ground this often is a recipe for disaster. In addition, his underlying batted ball data on his fly balls took a step back in several categories:
The regression in contact quality is not something that a player like Suwinski can afford. His 2022-2023 numbers were up there among the most prolific power hitters in baseball. Meanwhile, his 2024 numbers on his fly balls were rather pedestrian.
Another interesting element of Suwinski’s poor 2024 season was his results on ground balls. With how often he strikes out, hits fly balls, and pulls the ball, the lefty-swinging outfielder will never hit for a high batting average and his BABIP will always be lower. But his misfortune on ground balls played a part in the bottom falling out and going south of the Mendoza Line.
The BA on ground balls league-wide in 2024 was .249. Suwinski fell way below that mark at .205. However, he also had a .271 xBA and a 42.3% hard-hit rate on his ground balls. While you may not want to read too much into that, it does speak to some misfortune. In fact, he was the 15th lowest in the difference between his BA and xBA. So, while his career BABIP is low (.258) due to his batted ball profile, the .225 mark in 2024 should be expected to tick back up in 2025.
On the Bright Side
While Suwinski’s 2024 season can’t be totally ignored, we can still look back on his production and skills established prior. His mammoth 18.2% barrel rate against right-handed pitchers in 2023 was second only to the great Shohei Ohtani. Further, he has always displayed a good approach at the plate, attacking the pitches he can do damage on and avoiding pitches out of the zone. Since 2022, he is among the lowest hitters in chase rate (minimum 1000 PAs). The downside of his passive approach is that he allowed a decent amount of pitches in the heart of the zone.
This was clearly the optimized version of Suwinski with excellent power and decisions compensating for his poor contact ability. He seemingly came into 2024 with a more contact-oriented and aggressive approach and quite simply, it did not work.
Positively, his new plan of attack yielded a 19.2% strikeout rate during March and April. But the batted ball metrics nowhere near resembled what he had done in the past. Soon the contact regressed back to his normal ways and his power stroke had escaped him. So, while he did make strides in a number of contact metrics, it perhaps hurt his contact quality.
Suwinski was at his best when he was selectively picking his spots and accepting his contact deficiencies. Perhaps as he ages, he can blend some of the few positive elements of his 2024 season with the other better parts of his game. There are times during his career when he has put the pieces together, but hitters of his style with a big strikeout rate will be volatile and go through peaks and valleys.
And while his 2024 season was abysmal in totality, we did at least see his glorious barrel rate climb back up as the season progressed. We do not want to flat-out ignore his poor season, but also toe the line of not overreacting and writing him off. It may not be quite time to give up.
Suwinski did not get much of a chance to adjust as he only had 13 plate appearances in the second half. With the new bat tracking data, it would be fascinating to see if any significant swing changes were made from 2023 to 2024. But, we do have his 2024 data to go off and it again shows promise. While there is a lot that goes into being a quality hitter, he shares similar swing characteristics with some of the better hitters in the league:
Generally, hitters with longer swing paths will have more swing-and-miss. But many of those hitters combat that with all-world bat speed and raw power. The hitters who have a shorter, more compact swing while still generating plus bat speed are attractive. For example, Heliot Ramos was a relatively unknown commodity last season. Before his breakout in the summer, he popped as someone who possesses these ideal characteristics.
Opportunity is Still There
Opportunity is everything in fantasy baseball. According to Fangraphs’ RosterResource, Suwinski is slated to start the season at Triple-A. Tons of things can change by Opening Day, but he still has an option remaining and is seemingly on the outside looking in. But the Pirates did next to nothing in the off-season to completely slam the door shut on a Suwinski bounce-back. Newly signed Tommy Pham might muddy things a bit, but he is going to be 37 years old and is a projected below-league-average bat by every Fangraphs projection system. Adam Frazier and Joshua Palacios both could be strong-side platoon options, but their bats do not have the upside of Suwinski.
It’s important to address the defensive aspect of this as defensive value is a significant driver of playing time. Like almost every other part of his game in 2024, Suwinski’s defensive numbers took a big step back. Here are his defensive numbers by Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Outs Above Average (OAA):
This may hold back his playing time from reaching the 534 plate appearance mark in 2023. However, there is also a possibility that he reclaims that version as one of the better strong-side platoon bats for power while contributing some in the stolen base department as well. At his free price (past pick 700 by NFBC ADP), there is a case to be made for his upside. The ZIPS projection on Fangraphs is the only one to project him for more than 500 plate appearances. It projects 22 home runs along with 12 stolen bases. The other counting stat categories could be lacking, but there is value if the playing time comes. He fits the profile of a power-speed guy with some swing-and-miss to draft or monitor in the early part of the season.