Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Hunter Greene (CIN) vs LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 107 pitches.
I have to give all the love to Hunter Greene as he was tasked with facing the Dodgers twice in a row and escaped with just 3 ER allowed total including Saturday’s 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 107 pitches and his second Win in three starts. Is this the breakout season his upper-90s four-seamer prophesized?
It’s possible and if we do see Greene keep his ~3.00 ERA throughout the season, it’ll be a product of sliders landing down-and-gloveside while the heater refuses to fall too far down in the zone. We saw some great pitch separation in this one and while the iVB on his four-seamer wasn’t the 17″+ inches we saw early in the season (just ~15″ here), it still dominated based on its stellar precision upstairs at 11/59 whiffs. Being able to feature more competitive four-seamers this year (increased strike and zone rate!) has increased its whiff rate, while his four-seamer’s improved shape has allowed those pitches to have a dramatically reduced ICR for the season.
In short, better fastballs and locations = better results for Greene. It’s too early to suggest he’ll keep both elements throughout the full year (the aforementioned fluctuating iVB is already a small blemish), but we’re obviously leaning into this heavily. I certainly didn’t expect Greene to rid himself of his Cherry Bomb tag this year and he’s forcing my hand sooner than expected. You love to see it.
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Erick Fedde (CHW) vs BAL (ND) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 103 pitches.
Your Gold Star of the night as Fedde tossed into the seventh with pristine pitch separation and avoidance of the heart of the plate. I pinned Fedde as a command guy after his first few appearances and it’s great to see him still capable of dialing in locations across his arsenal. It’s still questionable how often he can find that groove, though, and he’ll still be in the third tier for his start against the Brewers.
Reese Olson (DET) vs TOR (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 93 pitches.
YES. I’m so glad he’s okay, I feel weird ranking him as low as I did yesterday with concerns that his hip would bother him in this one and instead he pitched well with sinker called strikes + changeups & sliders coming through. We’re riding for a while here.
Marcus Stroman (NYY) @ SDP (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.
That’s the Stroman we know and love. We had a few starts of turmoil, and now he’s found his complementary pitches once again. Here it was the cutter, curve, and slider all coming through as his sinker did its regular thing. Let it ride, let it ride.
JP Sears (OAK) vs HOU (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 68 pitches.
Uhhhh that’s a start of few four-seamers and a ton of sliders and sweepers in the zone. HAISTBMBWT?! I wouldn’t be shocked if Sears does more of this as he was able to earn outs galore against a legit offense and sneak a Win. We’re talking nearly 60% sweepers and sliders for an 76% strike rate. Huh.
Albert Suárez (BAL) @ CHW (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 80 pitches.
We didn’t expect Suárez to go long in this and I’m honestly shocked he was allowed to frolic for 80 pitches. It’s like parents getting into a great conversation at the playground and realizing they were 15 minutes late while the kids were hoping their parents didn’t notice. We saw classic Suárez – high heaters at 95+ mph with 10/52 whiffs and nothing else worked. At least he should get more than 80 against the Rays and with their Win chance, that’s not so terrible.
Jared Koenig (MIL) @ BOS (ND) – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 60% CSW, 15 pitches.
He opened for Colin Rea, who put up a solid effort of 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks with a Win across 68 pitches. A whole lot of nibbling and 0/53 whiffs on cutters + sinkers + four-seamers. + curveballs. Fun.
Luis Severino (NYM) vs SFG (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 103 pitches.
I debated putting Severino in Tier 2 and should have followed the rule of If he’s a Toby, then we put them in Tier 2 in good matchups. I think my hesitation comes from his reliance on a sweeper these days and not much else outside of heaters. I’m glad this worked, I’m not sure you need to hold for the Sneks next.
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs ATL (W) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 88 pitches.
His command is still there and we’re seeing one of those Keller runs. It’s four ER across four starts now, facing the Brewers, Cubs, and Atlanta across the last three. It’s a product of Keller finding the feel for his arsenal with high theaters, cutters playing off them, low sinkers and sliders, and decent sweepers + curves. We saw it last year for a moment before it fizzled out and I’m sure the same will happen here. Enjoy the Vargas Rule until it has its inevitable crash.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) @ WSN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 78 pitches.
Aces gonna ace..? I mean, yes, this is objectively good, but four strikeouts? 50% cutter strikes? It’s a bit odd to see the early hook, too, as Gilbert could have gone deeper into this one at just 78 pitches. It’s strange to feel as if Gilbert still hasn’t found stability in his approach – each start comes with its own quirks and despite having everything he needs, I’ve yet to watch Gilbert and get the feeling of “okay, I get this. I like this.” He gets the Astros next and we’re starting him there, though I wish he was firing on all cylinders first.
Michael Lorenzen (TEX) @ MIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.
You chased Lorenzen here for the Quality Start and you got it. Not a single pitch returned more than one whiff in his arsenal and his cutter went 9/22 strikes. Yikes. You know what you’re getting out of this.
Jordan Hicks (SFG) @ NYM (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 87 pitches.
The sinkers returned strikes per usual, laying a foundation for his splitter (and sweeper, kinda) to dominate with 9/27 whiffs and 37% CSW, paving the path for a King Cole. Hicks has a feeling of “solid floor with upside to hit”, though the ceiling doesn’t feel too high given his issues with efficiency – five frames at 87 pitches doesn’t speak to 6+ innings consistently.
Trevor Williams (WSN) vs SEA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 85 pitches.
Those strikeouts were all on high four-seamers, if you can believe it. I can be cause it’s the Mariners and he went BSB with all secondaries down. Well fine, you’re not wrong. It’s Atlanta next, that’s a pass, but if he’s still displaying this feel, then fine, I understand going for it against the Mets. I personally don’t want to, but fine.
Brady Singer (KCR) @ TBR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches.
We’ll take it, even if it’s not a Win nor QS. He didn’t earn enough whiffs on the slider to come through how you want him to, sadly, (6/40 ain’t the Singer way), but the sinker is still an elite called strike offering. Nothing new here.
José Berríos (TOR) @ DET (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 83 pitches.
Atta boy Berríos. It wasn’t the best commanded we’ve seen from him, but as long as you throw heater strikes to the Tigers, you have a chance to make it work. Don’t expect a 46% CSW on sinkers moving forward…Blame it on the Tigers.
Jordan Montgomery (ARI) vs MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 77 pitches.
Ah yes, a typical Dusty Donut from The Bear. I’m a little sad we didn’t get the slider back that we saw him flrit with last start and as long as y’all accept that he’s a Toby and nothing more, then we’re cool.
Dakota Hudson (COL) vs PHI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches.
COL story, bro. Hudson is going about 50% breaking ball these days and I’m all for this. Still don’t want to trust it for fantasy, but I approve of the man’s approach shift.
Aaron Nola (PHI) @ COL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 103 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Tons of high four-seamers (18% SwStr rate!) and everything else down. This is the way.
Aaron Civale (TBR) vs KCR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 71 pitches.
Better, but still just 17% curveballs, despite 50% CSW and a 25% SwStr rate. Intersting to see his cutter and curve each have velocity gains, but I wouldn’t classify this as a legit command outing for Civale. We’re not out of the woods yet and Baltimore awaits. Nooooooope.
Chris Paddack (MIN) vs TEX (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 73 pitches.
Hey, he survived! Nothing new here and just two whiffs on the docket should give you the ole You Sure About That?! This isn’t the life I want to live.
Reynaldo López (ATL) @ PIT (L) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 70 pitches.
An extra unearned run slowed this start down as he enduring laborious frames, granting the early hook despite just 70 pitches. We shrug and move on – he still has a sub 2.00 ERA for a winning team and that’s bananas.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) @ LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 91 pitches.
It’s not the most exciting PQS ever, but a Bailey Special from Bibee is welcome given my concerns about his secondaries. Nick, he had 20 whiffs! Ohhhh snap! 13/47 whiffs on his four-seamer is absurd, though I’d throw in some Blame it on the Angels for that one. His slider and changeup weren’t exceptional as we want them to be (just nine changeups and 3/29 slider whiffs) and I wouldn’t bank on that four-seamer whiff rate, though his steep attack angle was a little less steep in this one…I wonder if there’s something to that.
Miles Mikolas (STL) vs CHC (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 82 pitches.
This is a good Mikolas start. Think about that.
Walker Buehler (LAD) @ CIN (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.
Blegh. That’s a Philly in a start that had Buehler look a bit lost in his approach once again. It feels like he’s trying to do too much and all I want is him to go BSB in full. Keep it simple Walker, you can do this. Rockie Road is next and should fare plenty better.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) @ STL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 105 pitches.
That’s nearly a VVPQS and not what we want against the Cardinals. The Brewers are next and with Taillon looking like a Toby at best right now, I’d be looking at alternative options. The upside isn’t too high at the moment, sadly.
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) @ OAK (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 97 pitches.
The Pasta Pirate just came up short as he failed to avoid the heart of the zone. The stuff is there to be a legit arm, but until he’s able to open the jaws of his arsenal away from the center of the zone, he’ll fail to be the arm he’s supposed to be. Feel free to take gambles here moving forward in hopes that he comes through, I hope it hits soon and we soar for a full summer.
Sixto Sánchez (MIA) @ ARI (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 76 pitches.
I miss the old Sixto. This one is throwing 25% four-seamers at 93.7 mph and I feel like I’m watching a band forget what their old sound was. Opeth, WE NEED ANOTHER WATERSHED.
Dylan Cease (SDP) vs NYY (L) – 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 107 pitches.
Sixteen slider whiffs. And just one on the four-seamer. It’s lovely to see the zero walks as that slider was well spotted and as competitive as you want it to be down and in town. The Yankees are just too dang hot right now y’all.
José Soriano (LAA) vs CLE (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
A horrible third frame with all four runs scoring messed up this line from Soriano, who allowed just one baserunner in the other five frames. He gets the Mariners next and I’m ALL for that one. I think you’re gonna see an explosive start there – he even had a 31% CSW splitter with 63% strikes in this one.
Nick Pivetta (BOS) vs MIL (L) – 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 77 pitches.
Blegh. Pivetta tried to forced his way through this with his four-seamer as his breakers let him down in a major way. I wouldn’t read much into this one with the Tigers next.
Game of the Day
Kyle Bradish vs. Garrett Crochet – This is all kinds of fun.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)