The rankings continue like you knew they had to, as we went over our Top 25 Catchers, Top 25 First Basemen, and Top 25 Second Basemen earlier this week. Next up are the Top 25 Shortstops and let's get to it.
Tier 1: Your Side of the Bridal Party
1. Manny Machado (Baltimore Orioles) — This top-flight story of fantasy baseball SS are the equivalents of your inner circle of trusted confidant(e)s you'd want flanking you at the altar as you exchange vows with your soon-to-be spouse. They are ironclad picks to be groomsmen or bridesmaids at your wedding and you would trust them with your life. Manny Machado is top of that very esteemed heap (though I think he may prefer to be Best Man vice Maid of Honor; sorry, ladies). Not worth worrying too much about semantics of the analogy here since Machado is certifiably your closest friend who's been through highs and lows with you, and he's the one person you ensure is in place to make sure your big day (read: fantasy season) goes according to plan with flying colors. He has eligibility at both 3B and SS after sufficient starts at both spots last year for Baltimore, making him even more of a treasure for the roster flexibility. He's gone yard 35 and 37 times in the last two seasons, coupled with 102 and 105 RBI, respectively. Those are some beefy numbers, friends. What's more, Machado brings a superb average to the plate that's been increasing since the start of 2014. If you don't expect .290 from him, you're being too stingy in your forecasting of Machado's abilities or you're too stubborn to accept the truth that he is a one-man wrecking crew. If only he could get muster a healthy chunk of his 2015 steals back, he'd be a Top 5 pick instead of *just* a first-round pick overall for 5x5.
You do realize russell “launched” more than 17 homers in 2016, right? I would think 20 homers is his floor and 30 is his ceiling this season. Plus, he did show in the minors that he could hit for average. So while I do not expect him to his .275 (yet), I do think he hits above .250.
Russell is getting short changed by many sites. He has shown the ability (even last season in during the post season) to adjust and improve. I think he takes a HUGE step forward in 2017 and may even reach the top tier. Might be the last chance to get him cheaply.
Multiple projection algorithms have him hitting sub-.250 and 20 HRs or fewer. He’s ranked in the Top 12 for a reason, and his exceptional work in the minors is proof that he should and can grow as a hitter at the highest level. But in two seasons, he has yet to hit for better than .242, and without hard contact percentage being in the 30s yet, it’s not wise YET to predict for an ISO or homer count each higher than what he was able to accomplish last year. This is all about progression and not assuming he can magically top a number just because he reached it already without addressing fundamentals: If the HR/FB ratio continues to increase and he hones his plate discipline, he will do big things sooner than later. Work yet to be done before he’s the truly elite SS he can eventually be.
But he did already accomplish 21 homers last season. So how can you predict fewer this season when he will get more at bats and is more familiar with pitchers?! How many games did you actually watch him play in last year? It was clear to see that with more at bats he will only get better…which we did witness as the post season progressed.
My prediction: .260/.340/.460
Why is Villar not ranked here? He played enough SS last year to qualify there this season.
I think you scrolled too quickly through the list without reading closely: Villar is rightfully mentioned at No. 8, in the same Tier 2 explanation as 7th-ranked Jean Segura.
Yes, I did browse too quickly. That ranking is fair. I personally have him ranked a little bit higher due to the extra value I put on stolen bases. Even with regression accounted for he should be able to steal 40+ bases. To me that is more valuable than the 30+ homers that Story might bring. Even considering 30 homers for Story or 40 stolen bases for Villar I think there’s more upside with the latter than the former.