Before the Baseball Writers Association of America gives the official award winners, the PL Staff decided to take a stab at things. Below are our predictions for everything from the MVPs, the Cy Youngs, the Rookies of the Year, and many more. Where did we go chalk, and what picks might surprise?
American League MVP
1. Aaron Judge, OF, NYY (112 points)
.332/.389/.588, 32 HR, 109 RBI, 218 wRC+, 11.2 fWAR
No surprises here. The PL Staff predicts Aaron Judge will win his second MVP without much debate. Judge received 100% of our vote and will probably garner a similar percentage from MLB’s voters. And for good reason. Though his dreadful postseason obscures things right now, this is still a hitter who rocketed 58 home runs, 144 RBI, launched 36 doubles, and scored 122 runs.
There’s a litmus to how many adjectives we can apply to Judge’s 2024 season without sounding repetitive. He was great, stupendous, marvelous. There was a uniformity in his excellence that rarely, if ever, waned. And so on and so on. But what contextualizes Judge’s season and why he’ll go unchallenged for the crown is this stat: Judge’s 1.159 OPS isn’t just a career-high. It’s the best single-season OPS by any hitter this century.
2. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, KC (72 points)
.322/.458/.701, 58 HR, 144 RBI, 168 wRC+, 10.4 fWAR
Because of Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. will likely finish second in the race. That’s not for a lack of trying. Witt leaped from budding star to supernova this season, hitting .332/.389/.588 with 32 home runs, 109 RBI, 45 doubles, and a .977 OPS. Witt’s 10.4 fWAR wasn’t just second in the AL. It was second in the Majors. He’ll play second-fiddle to Judge in 2024 but to only a few others in the future if he keeps posting numbers like these.
National League MVP
1. Shohei Ohtani, DH, LAD (107 points)
.310/.390/.646, 54 HR, 130 RBI, 181 wRC+, 9.1 fWAR
Things continue going chalk as the staff predicts Shohei Ohtani to win the NL MVP. Lost amongst the normalcy of his brilliance and the arguably overdone conversation surrounding Ohtani’s accomplishments are his… well, actual accomplishments. Just for a reminder, Ohtani hit 310/.390/.646 with a 1.036 OPS. He slugged 54 home runs this season, collected 130 RBI, crossed home plate 134 times, and played in 159 of 162 games.
This might be the expected pick. But make no mistake, it’s also the correct selection for our voters and others.
2. Francisco Lindor, SS, NYM (59 points)
.273/.344/.500, 33 HR, 91 RBI, 137 wRC+, 7.8 fWAR
Just finishing behind Ohtani in our voting is Francisco Lindor. Much will be made of Lindor’s offensive output this season: An .844 OPS, 33 home runs, 91 RBI, 39 doubles, 309 total bases, and 29 steals. It’s deserved. But just as essential to Lindor’s case is his defensive abilities. Lindor finished in the 98th percentile in Baseball Savant’s Outs Above Average and the 96th percentile in their Fielding Run Value. It’s a sharp contrast from Ohtani’s zero innings played in the field.
Regardless, Lindor shouldn’t lose a wink about his second-place finish. He should only wish voting happened after his magical playoff run.
The Field
Ketel Marte secured a well-earned third-place vote in our polling. His chances may have faded due to injury, yet his final numbers still astound: .292/372/.560 with 36 home runs, 95 RBI, and a .932 OPS.
AL Cy Young
1. Tarik Skubal, LHP, DET, (56 points)
192 IP, 228 K, 2.39 ERA, 0.922 WHIP, 5.9 fWAR
Tarik Skubal entered 2024 as the sexy, under-the-radar pick to win the AL Cy Young. Our own preseason polling saw Skubal receive 12% of the vote. Yet Skubal still had established stars to outshine. Luckily for Skubal, the southpaw burned brighter than every other glowing ball of gas.
Skubal racked up 18 wins, a 2.39 ERA, and 228 strikeouts en route to the Triple Crown and a first-place finish in our predictions. Leaderboards aside, Skubal has more to his case. He failed to have an ERA above 3.05 in any single month. He limited opposing batters to a .201/.247/.311 slash line and a .558 OPS. There’s also this: The distance between Skubal’s league-leading 5.9 fWAR and second place is the same size as the gap between second and sixth. No matter how it’s cut, Skubal’s 2024 is made of hydrogen, helium, and hot gas. He won’t be a dark horse in 2025 but a favorite.
2. Corbin Burnes, RHP, BAL, (22 points)
194.1 IP, 181 K, 2.92 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, 3.7 fWAR
It wasn’t quite Tarik Skubal and chaos in voting, however. Corbin Burnes had an excellent year, collecting a 2.92 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, and 15-9 record while striking out 181 batters. Burnes was an All-Star without argument and anchored a Baltimore rotation desperately needing mooring. What keeps Burnes behind Skubal in our voting is his 7.36 ERA in August. His four starts that month accounted for 21 of Burnes’ 63 earned runs in the 2024 season. In this case, it’s that simple.
3. Cole Ragans, RHP, KCR, (14 points)
186.1 IP, 223 K, 3.14 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 4.3 fWAR
The PL Staff also looked favorably upon Cole Ragans, and how couldn’t they? Ragans had a sensational sophomore season, finishing second in FIP, fWAR, and strikeouts in the AL. All that comes with a league-leading 10.77 K/9 and the eighth-best ERA. One detriment to Ragans’ case is he didn’t shine until September. Every month before then, he averaged an ERA as low as 3.26 and as high as 3.82. He can’t compete with Skubal because either number would’ve been the worst month of Skubal’s 2024.
The Field
Other arms to receive votes included Emmanuel Clase and Seth Lugo.
NL Cy Young
1. Chris Sale, LHP, ATL, (56 points)
177.2 IP, 225 K, 2.38 ERA, 1.013 WHIP, 6.4 fWAR
Just because Chris Sale’s season ended with a whimper shouldn’t minimize its explosiveness. The lanky lefty tore through opposing offenses this season, gathering a 2.38 ERA and a staggering 2.09 FIP, 225 strikeouts, and 11.4 K/9. What’s truly remarkable about Sale’s season is the numbers he piled up despite pitching in fewer starts than those playing second fiddle to him.
Dylan Cease started 33 games, Zack Wheeler 32, and Christopher Sanchez 31. Yet Sale stood alone in several categories like strikeouts, fWAR, K/9, HR/9, and many more. Sale didn’t win the NL Triple Crown by happenstance. He won it due to a season that supplied as many fireworks as an unregulated, possibly illegal Fourth of July celebration. Remember that from Sale’s 2024, not the back spasms that ended his season.
2. Zack Wheeler, LHP, ATL, (32 points)
200 IP, 224 K, 2.57 ERA, 0.955 WHIP, 5.4 fWAR
Zack Wheeler should not be ashamed. 2024 saw him post career-bests in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, H/9, and opponent OPS. The hurler cut through opposing offenses like a table saw through two-ply this season. His failure to finally win a Cy Young reflects Sale’s steadfast excellence more than anything Wheeler did wrong. Nonetheless, it’ll be a bitter pill to swallow. This will presumably be Wheeler’s third time finishing in the top six of Cy Young voting. All that can be said to comfort him is the same as years past: Maybe next year.
3. Paul Skenes, RHP, PIT, (12 points)
133 IP, 170 K, 1.96 ERA, 0.947 WHIP, 4.3 fWAR
It’s not a shock that Paul Skenes is good. It’s a bit of a shock that he’s already one of the best pitchers in baseball. Since his May 11 debut, Skenes led all pitchers—not just those in the NL—in ERA, SIERA, and K%. Likewise, he’s second in FIP and K/9, and third in strikeouts and fWAR. The only pitchers he trails in these four categories are Sale and Skubal, the Cy Young winners of their respective leagues. That’s how good Skenes truly is. The staff isn’t riding on preseason expectations when it’s justified.
The Field
Michael King and Dylan Cease were the other two pitchers to receive votes.
AL Rookie of the Year
1. Colton Cowser, OF, BAL, (33 points)
.242/.321/.447, 24 HR, 69 RBI, 120 wRC+, 4.0 fWAR
It’s nice to be an Orioles fan. If our voting mirrors reality, it’ll be back-to-back Rookie of the Year winners for Baltimore. The last time that happened was 2005 when the Athletics doubled up thanks to pitcher Huston Street and infielder Bobby Crosby. Cowser’s numbers are oddly not too dissimilar from Crosby’s. Both played 150-155 games, slugged 20-25 homers, and racked up 60-70 RBI. What sets Cowser likely to stand beside Crosby is the totality of his production. Cowser finished first among all AL rookies in fWAR and home runs, second in wRC+, third in BABIP, RBI, and doubles, and fourth in OPS.
Outside of Cowser’s cantankerous 172 strikeouts this season, he did it all offensively. Even defensively, he’s deserving. Cowser finished in the 90th percentile in Fielding Run-Value and 96th in Outs Above Average. There’s not much Cowser did wrong. But for Orioles fans to be happy in 2025, they’ll need more hardware than the Rookie of the Year.
2. Luis Gil, RHP, NYY, (19 points)
151.2 IP, 171 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.193 WHIP, 2.2 fWAR
Luis Gil, like a Scooby Doo villain, would’ve gotten away with it if not for some meddling kids. The prying prepubescent’s impeding Gil? The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Oakland Athletics. Gil was riding high entering the final week of the regular season. At that point, Gil touted a 3.14 ERA and 3.90 FIP while opposing offenses were hitting .184/.296/.328 with a .624 OPS against him. He was arguably neck-and-neck with Cowser.
That all changed over six days. Oakland dumped four runs on Gil on September 22, and Pittsburgh piled six on September 28. His ERA rose to 3.50, his FIP to 4.14, and batters now hit .189/.297/.346 with a .643 OPS. The inflation of Gil’s ERA was especially fatal when considering a 3.50 ERA would be the fourth-highest by a Rookie of the Year winner. Even if it’s not the case, voters might think someone’s pulled off Gil’s mask and unveiled someone unworthy of the award.
Honorable Mention
Though he didn’t receive any first or second-place votes in our polling, kudos to Boston’s Wilyer Abreu. He finished fourth or better among all AL rookies in the following: wRC+, fWAR, BABIP, OPS, OBP, home runs, and doubles. Boston has a logjam of outfielders in the system, but Abreu’s pure mahogany.
NL Rookie of the Year
1. Paul Skenes, RHP, PIT, (36 points)
133 IP, 170 K, 1.96 ERA, 0.947 WHIP, 4.3 fWAR
While it’s hard to go wrong with either, Paul Skenes edged out Jackson Merrill to finish first in our voting. Really, there’s not much more to say about Skenes. He’s a phenom. The type of runaway train that speeds by at 800 miles an hour and destroys everything in its path. Skenes feels fictitious—like a plot ripped out of MLB The Show. Very few rookie pitches make an All-Star game, and even fewer cement themselves immediately as one of the best in the game.
2. Jackson Merill, CF, SD, (28 points)
.292/.326/.500, 24 HR, 90 RBI, 130 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR
Paul Skenes deserves all the attention for his season. He’ll finish in the top 10 of Cy Young voting and likely claim NL Rookie of the Year.
Those accomplishments shouldn’t overshadow Jackson Merill’s rookie campaign, however. Merrill did everything for the Padres. He was second on the team in average, wRC+, RBI, home runs, and OPS. Factor his offensive success with his defensive acumen in center field and you get a team-leading 5.3 fWAR. That’s right. In his rookie season, Merill was statistically more valuable than veteran superstars Dylan Cease, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Xander Bogaerts. Merill is no red-headed stepchild in this race. He’s a star and soon-to-be one of San Diego’s favorite sons.
AL Manager of the Year
1. Matt Quatraro, 86-76, KCR, (27 points)
Who are the Kansas City Royals? That’s a question the team itself wondered following a 56-106 record in 2023. During the 2023-2024 offseason, the Royals invested over $100+ million into their roster to either rewrite their DNA or to figure out what was already there. So, who are the Kansas City Royals?
The Royals, as things turn out, are fighters. Manager Matt Quatraro took a transition-year type of roster, led them to a second-place finish in the AL Central and back to the playoffs for the first time since 2015. But neither Quatraro nor his club stopped there. The Royals dispatched the Baltimore Orioles, a preseason darling, in the AL Wildcard, and even took a game from the eventual pennant-winning Yankees in the ALDS. Quatraro gave Kansas City’s ballclub the very thing they’ve sought for almost a decade: An identity. For that, he’ll finish high in any voting.
2. Stephen Voght, 92-69, CLE, (21 points)
It’s hard to follow future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona, but Stephen Vogt made it look easy. The rookie skipper guided the Guardians to a 92-79 record without much help from frontline starters Shane Bieber or Triston McKenzie. Voght was also deprived of bullpen arms James Karinchak and Trevor Stephan, neither pitched an inning in 2024 and Sam Henteges who underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in September. Voght never faltered, though. Cleveland finished the regular season with the second-best record in the AL and the sixth-best in baseball. Whoever and whenever someone replaces Voght in Cleveland might have a hard act to follow.
NL Manager of the Year
1. Carlos Mendoza, 89-73, NYM, (31 points)
The mythic 2024 New York Mets had plenty going for them. They had an MVP-like year from Francisco Lindor, a breakout season from Mark Vientos, and the backing of a pear-shaped, purple-colored, fast-food mascot. Despite every surge, there was a storm: A 0-5 start that felt like rock bottom. A pitcher who hurled his glove into the stands. A potentially season-ending injury to Kodai Senga the second he returned.
Manager Carlos Mendoza steered the Mets through every high and low and earned first place in our voting. Why? Because Mendoza pulled every switch en route to October. He moved Lindor to the leadoff spot. He chose the hot hand of Jose Iglesias over Jeff McNeil. Mendoza weathered it all, including the postseason, like a ten-year veteran instead of a first-year skipper.
2. Pat Murphy, 93-69, MIL, (27 points)
Another rookie manager deserving of credit is Pat Murphy. Murphy had big shoes to fill entering the season. His predecessor, Craig Counsell, was a native son of Milwaukee. He piloted the Brewers to the playoffs six times in seven years after making it only twice from 1983 to 2014. Counsell lived every Wisconsin boy’s dream but became the state’s Judas Iscariot after leaving to manage the Cubs in the offseason.
Murphy, a 65-year-old Syracuse, New York native, now had to fill the vacuum. Moreover, he had to reassert the Brewers as contenders after 2023 saw them miss the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Murphy did all that and more. He fostered a new culture and oversaw the development of Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Joey Ortiz, and Tobias Myers while beautifully wielding one of baseball’s best weapons: The Milwaukee bullpen. Take a bow, Pat Murphy.
AL Reliever of the Year
Emmanuel Clase, RHP, CLE (100% of the vote)
74.1 IP, 66 K, 0.61 ERA, 0.659 WHIP, 47 SV, 2.2 fWAR
Before Emmanuel’s Clase’s Mr. Hyde-esque playoffs was a season that’d make even the morose Dr. Jekyll smile. Clase led all AL relievers in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, saves, and earned runs allowed while finishing fourth in fWAR. Should Clase win, his 0.61 ERA will be the lowest by an AL Reliever of the Year winner since Zack Britton’s 0.54 ERA season in 2016. Clase was the chief of sinners in 2024.
NL Reliever of the Year
Ryan Helsley, RHP, STL (87.5% of the vote)
66.1 IP, 79 K, 2.04 ERA, 1.101 WHIP, 49 SV, 2.3 fWAR
The St. Louis Cardinals have issues a-plenty. One exempt area? Their closer position. Ryan Helsley was dynamite this season, leading the team’s bullpen in ERA, FIP, fWAR, strikeouts, Left on Base Percentage, and batting average against. League-wide, Helsley led all NL relievers in saves. The only aspect Helsley erred in was his four-blown saves. Other than that, he was about as pristine as any team could hope for.
Executive of the Year
J.J. Piccolo, KCR, (62.5% of the vote)
It’s hard to overhaul a team in a single season. Yet that’s where J.J. Piccolo found himself this time last year. The Kansas City Royals finished 2023 56-106, the second-worst record in baseball behind an offense 23rd in runs scored and a pitching staff 29th in runs allowed. By season’s end, they’d missed the playoffs for eight straight years. The Royals were a tire fire.
Piccolo sought new faces to help him quell the inferno. He found them in Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, John Schrieber, and Adam Frazier. These additions, plus a leap from Bobby Witt Jr., propelled the Royals to an 86-76 record, their best since their World Series-winning 2015 season. Though 2024 ended differently than that season, the Royals have something now that they didn’t then: Hope. Every vital of the 2024 club outside of Wacha will be back next season. What Piccolo’s done is nothing short of remarkable. In 365 days, he remodeled the team and ended a nearly decade-long rebuild. It’s a job well done. One that the PL staff expects him to be awarded for.
You swapped some of Judge’s stats with Witt’s stats.