Every week, the Pitcher List team will publish an update to our power rankings, reviewing the biggest risers and fallers of the past seven days. This time, we are previewing each team’s outlook for the upcoming season. As always, the full rankings can be found at the bottom of this article … but where’s the fun in that?
Movin’ On Up
Record: 20-20
Rank change: +5
Having lost Juan Soto in the offseason and playing in a tough division that contains the Dodgers Super Team and the reigning NL champion Diamondbacks, the outlook of the Padres was unclear coming into the season. But as we’ve seen through 40 games, San Diego has proven they can stick around with the best teams in the National League and compete for a playoff spot. The fact that this club acquired Dylan Cease before the season started, followed by Luis Arraez just last week, shows a willingness to make moves and confidence in this club as a whole.
From a pitching perspective, the Friars have seen success from Cease and Yu Darvish in particular. Both have below a 3.00 ERA and have done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard. The biggest disappointment has been Joe Musgrove, who sports a 6.37 ERA through eight starts. His 4.30 xFIP shows some optimism for positive regression. However, this is still the highest mark he’s had since 2019. Musgrove has also surrendered an uncharacteristically high amount of home runs. His HR/9 sits at 2.20.
From an offensive standpoint, San Diego ranks in the top 10 of many key metrics. The main one to highlight is a 114 wRC+ which is tied with Baltimore for fifth in the league. The Padres also rank eighth in wOBA (.323) and have the 26th-lowest strikeout rate (19.6%), though these numbers are sure to rise with the addition of Arraez to the top of their lineup. Even this team’s power numbers are in the upper half of the league. They have the eighth-most long balls in MLB with 41 and their collective ISO sits at a respectable .145.
The unlikely duo of Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth have been doing most of the damage. Profar currently has the 11th-highest wOBA in the league at .409. The big three in Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts have underwhelmed to some extent, but most teams would still love to have this core of hitters in the heart of their lineup.
Hittin’ the Skids
Record: 17-20
Rank change: -4
The Blue Jays have been one of the biggest disappointments this season. This team does a few things well, like striking out at a collective 20.2% clip and walking at the seventh-highest rate in the league (9.5%). The most concerning part for this team is just how weak they’ve been from a power standpoint. For a team that has Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette, and George Springer at the top of their lineup, one would expect this team to have more than 30 homers at this point in the season. They currently sit with 30 which is the fifth-lowest mark in the majors.
Toronto’s pitching has also been subpar, and collectively their staff has been giving up home runs at the highest rate in the league at 1.36 homers per nine innings. Kevin Gausman has taken a big step back so far this season. His xFIP sits at 3.62 and his strikeout rate has plummeted to just 8.37 K/9, a number Gausman hasn’t seen since before anyone knew what COVID was. José Berríos had the lowest ERA in the league going into his start against Philly, but an eight-run outburst knocked him down to 26th.
Yusei Kikuchi has been a bright spot for this staff however, as the lefty has the ninth-lowest xFIP (2.87), 21st-best K% (26.5%), and 10th-best HR/9 (0.45) in the majors. Kikuchi’s biggest change this season has been his ramped-up curveball usage. He’s thrown the pitch 29% of the time this year, compared to just 8.3% last year.
The Blue Jays’ best hitter this year has surprisingly been Daulton Varsho. Varsho leads the team in ISO (.227) and homers, with just six. Bo Bichette has been one of the biggest disappointments for any team this season. The 26-year-old’s numbers are down across the board this year and he currently has the seventh-worst wOBA (.234) and eighth-worst wRC+ (50) amongst qualified hitters this season.
There is still a lot of talent on this team and I don’t expect them to remain in the AL East’s basement for the entire year. They just need their star players to do what we have been used to over the last several seasons.