If anyone needs a reminder that prospects are still ballplayers, the Arizona Fall League is a good place for that.
It sounds simple, but it’s true. There’s something about players wearing a dozen different big-league jerseys chasing Sam Antonacci to douse the outfielder in Gatorade after his walk-off sacrifice fly capped off the 2025 Fall Stars Game. Sure, the cooler of yellow drink missed its mark, but the smiles, the scramble to corral Antonacci, and the overall joy of the moment was an infectious end as the AFL season wound down. It was the kind of moment that sends fans into the winter with warm memories and dreams of Opening Day as the light at the end of a long offseason tunnel.
Sam Antonacci wins it for the AL!
The @whitesox No. 11 prospect laces one to left as Ryan Lasko (Athletics?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>@Athletics) scores the winning run of the Fall Stars Game. pic.twitter.com/gUbcZY14Fa
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) November 10, 2025
While that moment might be the game’s final impression for a few months, a player’s last pitch or final plate appearance also serves as their most recent statement on the road to realizing their big-league dreams. The AFL was stacked with prospect power this year, featuring 11 of MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects across the six team rosters. Detroit Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle lived up to his billing as the league’s best prospect, while Pittsburgh Pirates slugger Tony Blanco Jr. turned heads in the AFL Home Run Derby with thunderous contact and undeniable results. The position player talent was outstanding—but now it’s time to look at the top pitching performances from this fall and how they could impact dynasty managers heading into 2026.
Top 100 prospects in action
Only two of MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects were pitchers assigned to the AFL: Chicago White Sox’s Hagen Smith and Cincinnati Reds’ Rhett Lowder. These arms are likely already rostered in most dynasty leagues, but what kind of impact and opportunity they’ll have in 2026 is still uncertain.
Rhett Lowder made his MLB debut in late 2024 with six successful starts. While the strikeouts dipped and the walk rate rose, he only allowed four earned runs across 30.2 innings, offering little to complain about. That momentum vanished when a right forearm strain landed him on the IL to open 2025. His rehab was halted further by an oblique strain, and it remained unclear what kind of form he’d show in the AFL. Thankfully, his performance in Arizona helped settle some nerves.
Lowder’s slider looked sharp—he threw it 40.7% of the time and generated a 48.5% whiff rate. That effectiveness helped him post eight strikeouts to just one walk across 8.2 innings. However, his sinker and four-seam fastball were far less effective. He gave up two home runs in his final AFL appearance—one off the sinker and one off the four-seam—which underlined concerns. It’s possible he’s still working his way back from the shoulder issue that ended his rehab stint. In Arizona, Lowder essentially became a two-pitch pitcher, and that’s something to monitor closely come spring.
Hagen Smith, drafted a year later, might break camp with the White Sox in 2026, given the organization’s lack of upper-level talent. Known for his overpowering fastball/slider combo, Smith leaned into it hard—those two pitches accounted for 93.7% of his repertoire. He worked in a changeup primarily against right-handed batters. The result: 21 strikeouts to six walks in 14.0 innings. His swing-and-miss data was elite: 18.5% swinging-strike rate (94th percentile) and a 34.7% whiff rate (83rd percentile). If he can harness his splitter, he could emerge as one of 2026’s more impactful rookie arms.
Houston Astros prospect takes home Pitcher of the Year honors.
In the era of stuff overall, it is interesting to see a player like James Hicks take home the AFL Pitcher of the Year award. The South Carolina alum doesn’t “have any plus pitches” in the words of MLB Pipeline’s Jonathan Mayo, but his six-pitch arsenal and command in the lower zone translated to stat-line success. Hicks struck out 19 batters while walking only two in 13.0 innings. His fastball peaked at just 94.1 mph, yet he dominated: 38.8% strikeout rate, 4.1% walk rate, and a 0.201 wOBA—ranking him in the 95th percentile or better in all three categories. He also posted a 37.1% chase rate. He may be only a fringe top-30 Astros prospect, but his command profile could fast-track him into a deeper role in 2026 and nudge up his dynasty value.
Athletics are making a mistake with Will Johnston
Lefty Will Johnston likely won’t win or lose your fantasy league, but he’s worth a closer look. The A’s have been transitioning the Texas A&M alum into a bullpen role, a decision his AFL showing suggests may be premature. Johnston features five pitches—none of which are plus—but his splitter is coming along, and his overhead delivery gives hitters a tough look. He averaged under an inning per outing in Arizona, consistent with Oakland’s bullpen plans. Still, his control, solid batted-ball profile (94th percentile hard-hit rate), and multi-pitch arsenal suggest he’s better suited for the back of a rotation than middle relief. Perhaps his .348 BABIP as a starter in 2025 has misled the organization, but there’s more to develop here.
Eye-popping stats
101.7 mph – JP Wheat’s max four-seam velocity
Chicago Cubs prospect JP Wheat is not on many prospect radars due to his volatile profile and limited resume in the minors (19 games, 55.1 innings in 2024-2025), but this velocity is hard not to point out. The arid Arizona climate could have helped the 23-year-old get some extra juice out of his fastball, but his 101.7 mph mark led all AFL pitchers this season. That was about all Wheat had going for him, though, as he walked 16 batters and only fanned five in five innings of work. This is who Wheat has been for his professional career, but wow, can he light up the radar.
46.8% – Anderson Brito’s strikeout rate
The Houston Astros signed Anderson Brito out of Venezuela in 2023 for a mere $10,000, and he had a stellar calendar year of work. His 12 starts in High-A Asheville served as a coming-out party, with his 3.28 ERA and 11.9 K/9. With a solid five-pitch mix and still filling out his frame, Brito is a prospect to watch in the coming years. His AFL stint did nothing to deter that notion, as his strikeout rate led all AFL pitchers and was just one of the areas in which he received elite marks. Brito struck out 22 batters in 11.0 innings pitched, with seven walks in that span. HE wasn’t perfect, but it was a solid end ot just his second professional season. MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis said Brito had “some of the best stuff in the [AFL]” following his scoreless outing in the Fall Stars game.
7.29 feet – Holt Jones’ extension
The Miami Marlins have a burgeoning pitcher pipeline on the farm, led by prospects like Thomas White and Robby Snelling. Holt Jones has nowhere near the ceiling of those two, but boy, can he get down the mound. His AFL-leading extension helped him limit damaging contact allowed, with his average 83.7 mph exit velocity allowed ranked in the 97th percentile. With a six-pitch arsenal, Jones is still seeking out his control, as allowing free bases continues to plague the Kentucky product.
Aug. 14, 2005 – Justin Chambers’ birthday, the youngest AFL pitcher
For some prospects, the AFL action is their last chance to make an impression before the Rule 5 Draft or offseason decisions that could send them packing. For Justin Chambers, it was sort of a first impression, and the reliever made solid work of his first AFL stint. His changeup was one of the AFL’s best, while his lower arm slot and high spin rate helped him punch out 27.8% of the batters he faced, while he walked 13.9% of them. He shouldn’t be sniffing dynasty wire pickups for a while, if ever, but it still has to be interesting to be so much younger than much of the competition, and still hold your own.
10/11 – Jhancarlos Lara’s number of appearances 1.0 inning or less
Atlanta Braves prospect Jhancarlos Lara is a guy I have seen brought up plenty in the past calendar year, with new managers either wondering what to do with the Dominican hurler or managers who have held onto Lara for some time, hoping he would stick as a starter. The Braves started transitioning him more to the bullpen, and his AFL stint only held up that Lara might be more of a reliever than a starter in 2026. The 22-year-old’s stuff has never been in question, but his pitchability and control have both been erratic, at best, for years. His 45.3% whiff rate and 101.4 mph max velo hold up from a stuff standpoint, but his 26.1% walk rate and 17.9% chase rate do not bode well for his long-term potential, in the bullpen or in the rotation.
Top 30 prospects who popped
Luis De León – BAL No. 21
Top marks – 25,7% hard-hit rate (96th percentile), 31.9% strikeout rate (82nd percentile), 37.9% whiff rate (89th percentile)
The Dominican pitcher had a career year in 2025, rising from Low-A to Double-A across 87.1 innings. His fastball/slider combination saw him strike out an absurd 107 batters in that span, and that potency translated to the AFL. While his 12 walks were a noticeable blemish in his 15.2 AFL innings, he was in the zone more often than not. He flashed three solid pitches, led by his slider and sinker. His changeup is enough to keep right-handed batters off balance and could be the difference between De León sticking as a starter in 2026.
Cade Smith – NYY No. 19
Top marks – .182 wOBA (97th percentile), 4.3% walk rate (94th percentile), 30.4% strikeout rate (79th percentile)
The Mississippi State product returned from shoulder issues to pitch four solid outings in Arizona, showcasing his pitchability and six-pitch arsenal. Smith started strong in mid-October but waned outing after outing, but was still a solid starter for Mesa. He is not a pure-stuff guy, but his sweeper fooled plenty of batters, and his four-seam fastball lives in the zone. He is not a high-ceiling prospect, but Smith’s fall was a good return after his season ended prematurely.
Luke Sinnard – ATL No. 16
Top marks – 84.4 MPH average exit velocity (95th percentile), 98.8 mph max pitch velocity (89th percentile), 9.1% walk rate (83rd percentile)
This season was the first professional campaign for Sinnard, pitching 72.1 innings across Low-A and High-A. The Indiana alum has a towering mound presence and looked the part in Arizona. He gets down the mound well and with decent command of his primaries. He is working on a splitter and struggles to land it in the zone, even though he had a 41.7% whiff rate on it while throwing it 16.5% of the time. His fastball-first approach makes for a change of pace in the best way. He is a starter through and through right now, and feels an off-speed offering away from shooting into Atlanta’s top-10 prospects.
Karson Milbrandt – MIA No. 18
Top marks – 23.3% swinging strike rate (99th percentile), 45.0% whiff rate (97th percentile), 40.4% strikeout rate (97th percentile)
The 85th overall pick in 2022, the Missouri native seemingly put it all together in 2025. His 3.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP were both career-best marks, and he did so in his third consecutive season of pitching at least 90.0 innings. Milbrandt showcased his stamina in five more Arizona games, including two with seven punchouts. He gave up plenty of loud contact (3rd percentile in average exit velocity, 5th percentile in hard hit rate) but stayed in control and did not allow many free base runners. His curveball feels like an underutilized pitch and one that could elevate his prospect status even further.
Jake Bennett – WSH No. 10
Top marks – 20.9% swinging strike rate (97th percentile), 6.0% walk rate (92nd percentile), 38.4% whiff rate (91st percentile)
Bennett was an absolute workhorse for the Scorpions, logging 19.2 innings across five appearances. It only emphasized how healthy he looked since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2023, and the command looked sharp in Arizona. The 95.5 mph max velocity on his four-seam will be a red flag for some, but his changeup performed like a plus pitch, and the arm angle helps his arsenal have more deception.
Eiberson Castellano – PHI No. 24
Top marks – 17.6% swinging strike rate (91st percentile), 85.4 mph average exit velocity (91st percentile), .245 wOBA (90th percentile)
The Minnesota Twins took Castellano in last year’s Rule 5 Draft, but returned him to Philadelphia before Opening Day. The Venezuelan had plenty of struggles moving to the bullpen and missed considerable time with an undisclosed injury. That led to an unseemly minor-league body of work, but he rebounded nicely in Arizona. He pitched in a starter’s workload with 18 strikeouts in 14.2 innings in four games. His changeup and sinker are potent, but the control is still suboptimal for a player with below-average velocity.
Prospect pedigree, performance power progress to AFL Fall Stars
I searched for this year’s AFL Fall Stars rosters and somehow landed on the 2013 version first. Seeing names like outfielder Byron Buxton, shortstop Corey Seager, and pitchers Ken Giles and Chris Bassitt provided an interesting retrospective on the Fall League’s festivities. Making the Fall Stars roster isn’t everything, but it serves as a feather in the cap after voting from AFL staff, farm directors, and MLB.com writers. The fan voting element helped two additional outfielders earn a spot, but all of the pitchers were chosen by people who know these prospects best.
Nine of MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects landed on their respective Fall Stars rosters, with two of those being pitching prospects. Here are the pitchers selected for each squad.
| NL | AL |
|---|---|
| Jake Bennett* – Scottsdale (WSH No. 10) Jesus Broca* – Surprise (MIL) Jack Dallas – Surprise (PHI) Cade Denton – Salt River (COL) Chen-Wei Lin – Glendale (STL No. 16) Rhett Lowder – Peoria (CIN No. 5 / MLB No. 80) Alex Makarewich – Glendale (LAD) Karson Milbrandt – Mesa (MIA No. 18) Carson Montgomery – Peoria (SD) Koen Moreno – Mesa (CHC) Tucker Musgrove – Peoria (SD) Darlin Saladin – Glendale (STL) Luke Sinnard – Glendale (ATL No. 16) |
Jackson Baumeister – Mesa (TB No. 21) Miguel Boadas – Peoria (MIN) Anderson Brito – Scottsdale (HOU No. 7) Jose Corniell – Surprise (TEX No. 3) Daniel Espino – Surprise (CLE No. 29) James Hicks – Scottsdale (HOU No. 26) Jimmy Kingsbury – Peoria (SEA) Luis De León* – Peoria (BAL No. 21) Luis Perales – Salt River (BOS No. 9) Kai Peterson* – Glendale (TOR) Winston Santos – Surprise (TEX No. 4) Cade Smith – Mesa (NYY No. 19) Hagen Smith* – Glendale (CWS No. 5 / MLB No. 88) Tanner Smith – Peoria (BAL) Emiliano Teodo – Surprise (TEX No. 14 ) |
For the overall stats from the qualified AFL pitchers, please see below.
