Some of the very best draft-day values are the players in need of a bounce-back campaign. At some point, those players enjoyed some level of fantasy baseball success, but a down year or two is all it takes to send a once-promising talent tumbling down draft boards.
There’s never a shortage of potential bounce-back candidates, but in this article, we’ll cover seven players that I think have a phenomenal chance to not only get back to their old levels of production, but to significantly out-earn their current going rates in drafts.
*All ADP data is from drafts on the NFBC platform over the last two weeks prior to the publish date.
Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres | ADP 70
An electric 2024 rookie campaign saw Merrill slash .292/.326/.500 with 24 HR, 77 R, 90 RBI, and 16 SB, along with phenomenal defense in center field. By all accounts, Merrill was destined for fantasy baseball greatness, and managers certainly treated him that way in draft season last year, pushing his ADP within the first few rounds of drafts.
Unfortunately for both Merrill and his fantasy managers, 2025 did not go to plan. He had three separate stints on the injured list – a hamstring strain, a concussion, and an ankle sprain – that kept him to 115 games. His production slipped pretty much across the board amidst the ailments. Most notably, his stolen bases evaporated, shrinking from 16 in 2024 to just one in 2025.
Under the hood, things still looked pretty good for the Padres’ young centerfielder. Merrill’s barrel rate (13%) and walk rate (6.8%) actually improved. His hard-hit rate (42.9%), bat speed (72 mph), and pull-air rate (15.1%) all remained relatively unchanged.
Those numbers point to Merrill regaining his 2024 form at the dish, and now that he’s far removed from the lower-body injuries, his activity on the base paths should return. A disappointing season sunk Merrill’s ADP quite a bit going into 2026, and I’ll happily take the discount on a 22-year-old who looked like a budding superstar just two seasons ago.
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates | ADP 98
Cruz burst onto the MLB scene with his electric tools back in 2022, but years later, we’re still waiting on one of the sport’s most gifted athletes to truly take his star turn. Unfortunately, despite the upside in his profile, last year actually felt like a big step back from his true potential. Although Cruz wrapped up the season with 20 home runs and 38 stolen bases, his .200 batting average was easily the worst among qualified MLB hitters and did a number on his fantasy teams’ batting average standing position. Similarly, Cruz’s 86 wRC+ was the 11th worst in baseball.
The one very obvious flaw in Cruz’s game has been his strikeout issues. He punched out in 32% of his plate appearances last year. When he did hit the ball, he didn’t fare very well either. His .262 BABIP was over 70 points below his previous career average. Only 18 players had a lower BABIP than Cruz last year.
Cruz’s BABIP struggles are a big reason he made this bounce-back article. It’s rare that any hitter runs a BABIP as low as Cruz did last year, but it’s especially rare when you consider Cruz’s elite batted ball metrics and his 93rd percentile sprint speed. There’s little question about whether or not Cruz will still be hitting nukes and flying around the basepaths in 2026, and for that reason, Cruz seems like a phenomenal bounce-back candidate. Sure, the batting average still won’t be good, but it’s almost a certainty that his BABIP returns near his previous career rate of .336, and if it does, his average will also significantly improve.
There aren’t many players you can draft around pick 100 that have legitimate superstar upside, but Cruz is one of them. Even if he doesn’t turn into one of the game’s best players, a batting average bounceback is very likely, as are 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles | ADP 147
Rutschman’s time being considered one of baseball’s elite backstops has seemingly come to a screeching halt. After posting a 134 and 126 wRC+ in 2022 and 2023, Rutschman’s production at the plate has tumbled to 103 and 91 in the last two seasons. To make matters worse, a nagging oblique strain sent Rutschman to the IL twice last year, so he only managed to come to the plate 365 times.
Fantasy managers have quickly bumped the Orioles’ switch-hitting catcher well down draft boards, but they may have done so too quickly.
Rutschman just turned 28. He’s still plenty young enough for a bounce-back to not only be possible, but expected. Even with his 2025 struggles, his batted ball metrics look good. His 7.5% barrel rate and 38.6% hard-hit rate might not be remarkable from a league context, but they’re nearly identical to where they were when he was thriving at the plate.
Projection systems also give Rutschman a big vote of confidence. Literally all of the major public systems are projecting Rutschman to have a nice bounce-back campaign — Steamer, ZiPS, ATC, THE BAT, THE BAT X, and OOPSY all project him to post a wRC+ between 108 and 116. As the 11th catcher coming off draft boards, there’s a big opportunity for him to return fantasy value greater than where he’s currently being drafted.
Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds | ADP 196
Like Merrill, McLain’s fantasy stock rests largely on his phenomenal rookie season. In 2023, McLain hit .290/.357/.507 with 16 HR, 65 R, 50 RBI, and 14 SB across just 403 plate appearances. Shoulder surgery sidelined McLain for the entirety of 2024, and his much-awaited return to the field in 2025 wasn’t exactly a success.
While McLain still managed to post decent counting stats — 15 HR, 73 R, 50 RBI, 18 SB — it came with a .220/.300/.343 slash line. His 77 wRC+ was the fifth-worst among qualified big leaguers.
McLain’s biggest shortcoming last year was his decline in batted-ball quality. Each of his barrel, hard-hit, and exit-velocity metrics dropped from his rookie season, understandably, given he was working his way back from an extensive shoulder injury. Throughout last year, we saw McLain take incremental steps toward getting those batted-ball numbers back to where they should be. After posting pull and hard-hit rates of 30.8% and 30.3% in the first half, he raised those numbers dramatically to 41.1% and 37.2%, respectively, after the All-Star break. We also saw McLain finally get sustained double-digit barrel rates of 13.3% and 11.1% in August and September after posting just a 6.2% barrel rate in the season’s first four months.
With his batted ball data trending up at the end of the 2025 season, I’m happy to target McLain at his current ADP. Second base is looking very shallow in fantasy baseball this season, making McLain one of the most fun dart throws at the position.
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates | ADP 199
Reynolds was the definition of consistency from 2021 through 2024. If you drafted him, you could pretty much guarantee you’d get mid-20s home runs to go along with a solid batting average, respectable counting stats, and five or more steals.
Unfortunately, consistency isn’t a word you could use to describe Reynolds’ 2025. Last year wasn’t kind to the longest-tenured Pirate, but it’s hard to see why. Despite the downturn in production, Reynolds actually posted an improved barrel rate, hard-hit rate, launch-angle-sweet-spot rate, and bat speed.
One explanation for Reynolds’ uncharacteristic 2025 could be his struggles against four-seamers. He’s generally done very well against the pitch over the years, but last year was different. Reynolds’ -2 Statcast Run Value against four-seamers was the first time he’d ever had a negative run value against the pitch, but like before, the underlying numbers look fine. His whiff rate against four-seamers was right in line with his typical numbers, and he notably underperformed his expected statistics against them. He posted a .275 BA, .444 SLG, and .343 wOBA compared to his expected .313 xBA, .559 xSLG, and .399 xwOBA.
Reynolds is being drafted as the 46th outfielder. If he can get back even close to his old standard of play, he should knock that draft position out of the water and could easily finish as a top-25 outfielder once again.
Marcus Semien, New York Mets | ADP 242
Last year was the first full season in which Semien posted below-average offensive numbers since 2018. It also snapped his streak of playing in at least 159 games that dated back to 2017.
This winter, the Rangers sent the 35-year-old Semien to the Mets, and the park change alone should be welcome for Semien. Citi Field isn’t a hitter’s dream, but for right-handed hitters, it ranks 17th in Statcast Park factors. The Rangers’ Globe Life Field was 25th.
On top of the positive home park change, Semien’s process statistics last year look remarkably similar to what we’ve come to expect from him. His barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and exit velocity numbers were right in line with his recent successful fantasy campaigns. It’s probably fair to be slightly concerned about his strikeout rate jump from 14.6% to 17.4% now that he’s in his mid-30s, but his plate discipline numbers as a whole weren’t all bad. He actually increased his walk rate and chased fewer pitches out of the zone. At the same time, his whiff rate did rise a couple of points.
As mentioned with Rutschman above, most public-facing projection systems expect a bounce-back during Semien’s first year playing in Queens. A rough average of projection systems spits out a batting average around .240, ~20 homers, ~10 steals, and a solid number of counting stats. Semien is almost an afterthought in drafts as the 19th second baseman. If you miss out on the top-tier at the position, waiting it out and taking Semien could be a smart play.
Jake Burger, Texas Rangers | ADP 252
After hitting 34 and 29 home runs in 2023 and 2024, Burger managed just 16 long balls last year, a season that he’d probably like to put behind him. An ice-cold start to Burger’s 2025 campaign resulted in a 10-day demotion to the minors. After his return to the majors in mid-May, Burger went on the IL three times for injuries to his oblique, quadriceps, and wrist. All said, it was pretty tough for Burger to find much consistency at the plate.
With last year’s mess behind him and minimal threats to his playing time at first base, Burger should be in store for a full starter’s share of playing time, assuming he can return anywhere near his previous level of performance.
If you’re drafting Burger, you’re eyeing some help in the power department, and even with all the obstacles he faced in the 2025 season, he still had reasonable power numbers. His xSLG, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate all remained in or above the 80th percentile of big league batters.
