Following the Draft Combine this week, we are officially in the sprint up to the MLB draft. We can start picturing players wearing organizations uniforms, and dreaming about the ideal fits. The evaluation period is officially over, and it is now time to start mock draft season.
2026 MLB Mock Draft
1. Chicago White Sox – Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
The White Sox can not go wrong at number 1 overall. Lackey and Cholowsky are the banner names, but there is an argument to be made that Flora and Emerson would be defensible selections. Where 2025 was wide open, 2026 has multiple options that could make sense.
At this time, Lackey has surpassed Cholowsky as my number 1 player, but it is not because of anything Cholowsky has done wrong. In my Top 25 Hitters piece, I explained Cholowsky has been negatively impacted by evaluation fatigue, more than anything performance related. He very well could be the top selection, but Lackey had the better season at the most valuable position on the field, which moves him to the top.
Lackey’s progression has been really awesome to follow. He didn’t play a ton as a Freshman, but showed impressive bat-to-ball skills, hit tool, and overall athleticism as a Sophomore, which put him on some 1st round radars coming into this Spring. Then it all clicked for him. He finished the season hitting .359/.519/.772 with 20 home runs, 50 walks, and only 38 strikeouts. The ability to maintain his K:BB ratio, while hitting for that level of power is insanely impressive. That combination of hit tool with progressing power all at the Catcher position will be tough to pass up on.
2. Tampa Bay Rays – Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
As I can’t emphasize enough, Cholowsky didn’t do anything specifically wrong to fall off the top spot, it was simply a combination of Lackey’s ascension and recency bias that has changed perception. If Lackey was selected 1st, I am more confident the Rays select Cholowsky, than I would be if Cholowsky is selected 1, and Lackey is available here. The Rays are in a great position where it is easy to envision them developing Flora into an ace, Emerson into a stud, or just taking the best available between the top 2.
There are some subtle questions about Cholowsky coming off this spring. He regressed to only a .320/.452/.636 slash line with 21 home runs compared to his historic 2025 season, but that regression was in large part due to a .293 BABIP. Overall, Cholowsky’s data is relatively the same. He featured an identical contact rate, 82.6%, to Lackey, and showcased impressive power with a 92.6 avg EV. That combination has not changed this Spring.
A common refrain about Cholowsky this spring has been his success against “better” competition. But he hit .299/.427/.620 with 13 home runs against pitches with above a 105 stuff+. His strikeout rate did go up with 24 K’s to 18 BB’s, but the contact rate held firm at 82.8%, and no change with a 21.5% chase rate. Roch is ready to hit professional pitching, and has multiple years of track record to fall back on.
3. Minnesota Twins – Jackson Flora, RHP, UCSB
Flora is the best pitcher in the class, and it isn’t particularly close at this point. Coming into this spring, he was a hard-throwing righty who just bullied mid-major hitters. Well, he spent the offseason improving his arsenal to the point of adding two legit weapons, while maintaining his impressive command, and his above-average fastball.
There will always be concerns about the dominance of a mid-major pitcher. When you have 98-100 in the tank, you can attack hitters over the heart of the plate and be dominant. It is easy to look at Flora’s 1.03 ERA with 133 Ks and 32 BBs in 87.1 IP and think that is what he did. But he did it in a way that showed his overall improvement.
Entering this Spring, Flora has an elite fastball and paired it with a slider. He spent the offseason adding a sweeper and a change-up that both showed flashes of being elite. The sweeper had a 118.7 stuff+ with a 43.4% whiff rate, and while the Change-up graded out below average on stuff+ at 98.7, it generated a 49.6% whiff rate. The hitters tell you the only story you need to know. He also has a 116 stuff+ cutter/slider that generated a 40% whiff rate for good measure. With four big league-ready offerings with a 65% strike rate is a good recipe for big league success.
4. San Francisco Giants – Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian (TX)
The Giants have spent many straight offseasons trying to add impact bats and have largely swung and missed. I anticipate them using their 4th overall selection on finding an impact bat, but in a different way than I imagine.
I think in the ideal world, the Giants would get a college bat that they can move fast. There is a lot of win-now pressure in San Francisco with aging stars and a middling farm system. But the talent Emerson offers might be impossible to pass up. Emerson combines a great feel for the barrel with raw bat speed. If there has been a prep prospect profile that has thrived in the professional development system. MLB orgs have really valued the ability to take foundational skills like elite bat-to-ball skills and athleticism, and be able to put their touch on them, while just focusing on improving the feel for power. The day of grabbing a high ceiling prospect this high with the hope they develop contact skills are long gone. Emerson is the modern-day perfect prep prospect.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates – Chris Hacopian, 3B, Texas A&M
Hacopian has been one of my favorite hitters in the class since opening day. There is a question about where exactly he will play, but as a wise college coach once told me, “The most important defensive metric is slugging percentage.”
I have believed the Pirates need a fast-moving hitter since I mocked Nick Kurtz to them in 2024. The controllable pitchers, and now 20-year-old phenom Konnor Griffin, will not be in Pittsburgh forever, and as a small market team, they will really need to maximize their competitive window. Hacopian is the most MLB-ready bat in this draft and could move quickly through MiLB.
While it wasn’t the most statistically dominant season at .319/.405/.578 with 11 home runs, it came with impressive data. Hacopian averaged an 86.4% contact rate on the season with elite plate discipline at just an 18.6% chase rate. The EV didn’t show as elite with only a 90.9 mph average, but that comes with a 114.4 mph max EV, showing the bat speed is there.
When looking at his success against 105+ stuff+, he hit .340/.419/.651 with 9 home runs, 15 walks, 11 strikeouts, and a 87.7% contact rate, showing he might be better prepared to face high-level pitching than not.
6. Kansas City Royals – Derek Curiel, OF, LSU
7. Baltimore Orioles – Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech
8. Athletics – Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep (FL)
9. Atlanta Braves – Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove (MS)
10. Colorado Rockies – Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas
What do the Royals do? Their competitive window is now, so I don’t imagine they go prep, which is more of the norm for their process. They also need pitching more than hitting, but SP2 is definitely not close to the strength of this class. With all that said, a quick-moving CF with a contact/speed combo feels like a perfect Royal if nothing else makes sense. Curiel has the speed and athleticism to play CF in a spacious Kaufmann, and had an 87.4% contact rate this spring. What surprised me is the 90.6 avg exit velocity, but a 54.1% hard hit rate, 25.8% barrel rate, and 114.8 mph max EV. That combo feels very similar to Hacopian, but with up-the-middle athleticism. Clean up the 46.9% groundball rate, and Curiel’s best baseball is ahead of him.
The Orioles have gone more high ceiling in the last 2 drafts with the selections of Vance Honeycutt and Wehiwa Aloy, but I see them getting back to their roots in this draft. Burress has a solid combination of above-average power (93.6 mph exit velocity), contact skills (77.5% contact rate), and plate discipline (18.2% chase rate). Combine that with a 118.1 max EV, and Burress has the best bat speed in the class with above-average contact rates.
With the move to Las Vegas, the A’s still have time to build. Lombard is the best player available who if developed, would be ready to make his debut right around the move. Lombard has a combination of bloodlines with elite athleticism that MLB orgs covet. Eric Booth Jr. is the athletic profile that the Braves had made a history of developing. A speedy OF with great raw strength who just needs to learn how to elevate the ball consistently to tap into his skills.
The Rockies have to pay a premium in free agency for pitchers, so they can’t pass on a high-stuff college prospect this high in the draft. Dietz was finally healthy this spring and dominated the SEC. He pitched to a 3.32 ERA with 131 strikeouts to just 31 walks in 78.7 IP. There is a little bit of hard hit to his game with a 49.2%, but that is offset by a 37.8% whiff, 25% in zone whiff, and a 119.1 overall stuff+. It is a 2 pitch mix that will need a 3rd pitch, but the fastball is a 123.1 Stuff+, averaging 95, and his slider generated a 51.7% whiff rate and grades out at 117.8 Stuff+. The curveball showed flashes with a 118.7 stuff+ and a 53.3% whiff rate, but he only used it 9% of the time.
11. Washington Nationals – Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas
12. Los Angeles Angels – Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina
13. St. Louis Cardinals – Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky
14. Miami Marlins – Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas (FL)
15. Arizona Diamondbacks – Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah HS (GA)
The Nationals are the hardest team to select for because we do not know what direction the new regime will go in. From the decisions they have made, it feels like they are going to invest heavily in player development, so I went with a player who is polished but still has potential to tap into at a premium position. Helfrick reminds me a lot of Luke Stevenson, where there are some contact concerns, but he comes with above-average plate discipline, premium power, and elite defense. The three true outcome/elite defender plays better in professional baseball than in college.
Will the Angels finally pivot from taking close to MLB-ready RHP, and rushing them to the big leagues? I won’t hold my breath on it. Flukey would make the most sense here, and honestly, might be the best selection to fill that void. Had it not been for injuries, Flukey would have pushed Flora for the top spot. His fastball is really good with a 123.4 stuff+, combining 95.9 mph velocity with 19.5 inches of IVB. He combines that with a low release. He will need to work on his secondaries, but his dominant 2025 showed he has what it takes to be a high-level starter.
Tyler Bell is collectively higher in the industry than I have him. A draft-eligible Sophomore who was a high selection out of high school is always going to have name recognition in the industry. He also produced this year with a .343/.510/.608 slash line, but that came with a 74.3% contact rate. My research says hitters see about a 10% decrease in contact rate between P4 college and MLB, and a 64% contact rate isn’t serviceable, even with elite chase rates. a 109.4 max EV with metal also tells me there isn’t a ton of bat speed to fall back on. Riojas fits the Marlins mold, as they have really loved prep pitchers in recent seasons. He has seen an uptick in velocity this spring, while maintaining his feel for pitching and command. His best pitch is a Change-up, and when a prep prospect has 95 from the left side with feel for a change-up and plus command, that makes evaluators drool.
My process for the D-Backs for the last few seasons has been the same. Who is the fastest prospect available that makes a ton of contact, specifically low line drives and ground balls, both while being under 6 feet tall, and just mock them to the D-Backs. Condon feels like a D-Back based on my criteria. He will stick up the middle, and make a ton of contact, his ceiling is going to be determined by his power development.
16. Texas Rangers – Sawyer Strosnider, OF, TCU
17. Houston Astros – Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi St.
18. Cincinnati Reds – AJ Gracia, OF, Virginia
19. Cleveland Guardians – Jared Grindlinger, OF/LHP, Huntington Beach (CA)
20. Boston Red Sox – Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida
Strosnider showed extremely well at the draft combine, and that is a positive, as he is built to thrive in. A showcase setting in shorts and a t-shirt is the best environment for him. That will allow him to rise up boards, but the data doesn’t love him. He combines swing and miss concerns with a high chase rate, which is a nightmare combination, no matter how good the athlete is. Reece has the same profile with a 75.3% contact rate and a 26.8% chase rate, but his 95.1 mph average EV is 99th percentile in the nation. The power for both of them will attract teams to them, but the approach at the plate will limit their development.
If I had to pick a hitter out of this group, it is Gracia. Where Strosnider and Reece have big power but lack in approach, Gracia lacks in power, but thrives in approach. He combines an 83.5% contact rate with a 19.5% chase rate, but only averaged an 89.6 mph exit velocity. I am worried about the true bat speed, as he only featured a 110.5 max EV with metal, but a 49.1% hard hit rate, and a 26.9% barrel rate show he gets to his bat speed often. The Guardians have prioritized youth as a model-driven org, and Grindlinger is a reclassification from the 2027 class with impressive athleticism and stuff. His ceiling is on the mound, and there couldn’t be a better organization to maximize that potential.
The Red Sox in recent years have been nails in developing pitchers, and Peterson could fit their mould. His stuff has never been in question, but it has come with inconsistencies, and many have wondered if he was in the best developmental environment. The fastball grades out as a 124.9 stuff+, averaging 96.4 with 20.5 inches of IVB, but only had an 18.5% whiff. It is a high release, so that impacts it’s swing and miss potential at the top rail, but in college baseball, he should be able to bully hitters. His gyro slider is a perfect compliment to his fastball, which he throws hard at 85.8 and generates a 50.9% whiff. The profile is similar to Yesavage without a Splitter, but that obviously isn’t an easy pitch to learn.
21. San Diego Padres – Logan Schmidt, LHP, Ganesha HS (CA)
22. Detroit Tigers – Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle (CA)
23. Chicago Cubs – Carson Kerce, SS, Georgia Tech
24. Seattle Mariners – Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee
25. Milwaukee Brewers – Mason Edwards, LHP, Southern California
Death, taxes, and the Padres and Tigers selecting high school prospects. The Padres love old-school scouting darlings that are physically imposing with premium fastballs. Schmidt stands at 6 feet 4, 215 lbs with a fastball that reaches 98. The offspeed stuff will need some work, but he commands the ball extremely well. Spangler’s profile feels eerily similar to high school Kevin McGonigle. He is one of the most well-rounded hitters in the class, possessing both hit tool and power; the only difference is their size profile. At 6 foot 3, Spangler might move to 3B, but that physical maturation should also lead to more in-game power.
The Cubs and Mariners have a type. The Cubs love prospects with high contact rates and high exit velocity data and don’t really care about in-game power output. This was the mould of Matt Shaw and Cam Smith, and Kerce is similar, with a 94.1 mph exit velocity, an 82.3% contact rate, and a 19.7% chase rate. That trio combination has me sold that Kerce is the most underrated hitter in this class, and should have his name called extremely early. He hit .384/.471/.679 with 11 home runs, but was overshadowed in a lineup with Lackey and Burress. Kerce is my darling for this draft, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a model-driven org pops him in a territory that might not make sense.
Kuhns is one of the biggest risers in the class and is the perfect Mariner. He is a low-slot, high-IVB fastball guy, and the pitch has been dominant this year with a 29.0% whiff rate. The Mariners will salivate to add another of those pitchers to their system. While many might want them to take a position player, sometimes just knowing what you develop best is the most important thing.
Lastly, rounding out the first round, we have Edwards going to the Brewers. Had Edwards pitched in the SEC, I think he would be a top 15 prospect. He pitched to a 1.49 ERA with 169 strikeouts in 84.3 IP. There are some walk concerns with an 11.9% walk rate, but who better to solve those issues than the Brewers? They have not made a habit of selecting pitchers high because they are so good at finding diamonds in the rough, and out-developing their competition, but with no clear-cut hitter available, and opportunity to grab value in a pitcher could make sense.
