Every week, the Pitcher List team will publish an update to our power rankings, highlighting three teams among the different tiers of contention. As always, the full rankings can be found at the bottom of this article, but where’s the fun in that?
We’ve made it to the final week of the regular season. With two series left to play, the baseball world has descended upon the American League, putting the messes west of the Appalachians under the microscope.
The Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians have traded blows in an AL Central race, capitalizing on the Detroit Tigers‘ May collapse to give their fans a summer worth of fun. The two teams atop the AL West—the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros—aren’t as jubilant. The division winner could host a Wild Card Series with fewer than 81 wins! It’s murky at best, embarrassing at worst, and for the two teams in Texas, all that matters. It also might be a better watch than the American League’s final playoff spot.
But as the intensity ramps up, we’re going to have to wrap up some stories. The Tampa Bay Rays have ridden variance, margins, and Junior Caminero’s clutch gene to 95 wins, but the New York Yankees are arguably an Aaron Judge recovery away from being favored in a playoff series. Further down the AL East standings, the Baltimore Orioles reckoned with a failed rebuild and lived to fight late into September. Even so, life may be better in Baltimore than Anaheim, where the Los Angeles Angels have long been looking forward to 2027.
Contender
No. 3 Tampa Bay Rays (95-60, +83 run differential)
Perhaps it isn’t all that fair that so many are skeptical of Tampa Bay. The Rays are nearly guaranteed to win the toughest division in baseball, despite the sport’s third-smallest payroll. They’ve already won 95 games, can realistically get to triple digits, and are the favorite to represent the American League in the Fall Classic.
And yet… it doesn’t feel as real as we would like. Tampa Bay entered Monday with a +83 run differential is the sixth-best mark in baseball, just three ahead of the Boston Red Sox and 15 ahead of the 73-83 Tigers. We don’t need to overindex on one metric, but the Rays rank seventh in wOBA and 27th in xwOBA while also outperforming their pitching peripherals. Paired with nearly 500 Cedric Mullins plate appearances and some small-market bias, they look more beatable than the average No. 1 seed.
Of course, none of that matters now. Tampa Bay has banked those wins, (presumably) earned home-field advantage, and is set to face a division rival in the ALDS. A few things have gone right to bolster their odds, too. For one, Caminero has turned himself from a defensive liability to a trustworthy third baseman. As Mike Petriello noted on Effectively Wild, Caminero has addressed the biggest hole in his game this season, improving on the dirt by the month. While he has -8 FRV on the year, he’s been a positive defender since the start of June.
The Rays have also benefited from deadline acquisition Freddy Peralta hitting his stride. Since struggling in back-to-back starts against Baltimore, Peralta has allowed three runs across his last five starts and 28.2 innings. He seems to be holding his fastball velocity and iVB better than earlier this year, coinciding with a slight uptick in usage. He’s pitched himself into the conversation to be the Rays’ third playoff starter.
Tampa Bay can parlay Peralta’s newfound success into victories with a stable of fun arms in the pen. Leverage arms Bryan Baker, Kevin Kelly, and Cam Booser are all pitching to sub-2.50 ERAs. Brody Hopkins arrived this month and already offers one of the majors’ best four-seamers, potentially pitching himself into October baseball. On balance, the Rays might not be the most talented team in Major League Baseball. But with the aptitude to win on the margins, legitimate pitching, and an MVP candidate, we shouldn’t overlook their World Series odds.
The Middle
No. 18 Baltimore Orioles (75-81, -31 run differential)
Pete Alonso tried his best to carry the Orioles to October. He’s going to come up short.
That shouldn’t downplay the accomplishments of his season. Hitting his 300th home run in the place he once called home was as poetic as it was incendiary for discourse. He’s logged 4.2 fWAR, the best mark of his career, thanks to an unlikely improvement to his defense. Alonso has been Baltimore’s best player, but the O’s are just four games ahead of the New York Mets, whom they recently swept.
PETE ALONSO’S 300TH CAREER HOME RUN COMES AT CITI FIELD! pic.twitter.com/yqJJLdnQ8D
— MLB (@MLB) September 16, 2026
These failures can largely be chalked up to inadequate starting pitching and Gunnar Henderson’s inability to launch. The former is an indictment of the front office’s inability to land an ace in the post-Corbin Burnes era. The latter is cause for concern; enough to cause an identity crisis for the Orioles’ competitive window. Baltimore is not going to make the playoffs with a league-average Henderson, and the clock is ticking. Mike Elias got a career year from Alonso in his age-31 season, and Henderson will be arbitration-eligible this offseason.
I’d say things could get ugly fast, but the Orioles seem more likely to be suspended in the middle. The Adley Rutschman deal was a sign that Elias’s eye is on the future. It looks like Baltimore has done well for itself there, but the cost may include October baseball for a few more seasons, especially in a division that’s as competitive as ever. The Rays have a better farm, the Red Sox are significantly deeper, and it’s best to assume that the Yankees will continue having winner seasons until the heat death of the universe.
Tick. Tick. Tick.
Aside from a Henderson rebound, it will be imperative for Baltimore to sustain the gains that Brandon Young, Rico Garcia, and Coby Mayo made in 2026.
Wait ‘Til 2027
No. 30 Los Angeles Angels (60-96, -87 run differential)
There are a lot of not-nice things one can say about the Angels, none of which would be new information. Instead, it’s worth focusing on the 2027 part of “Wait ‘Til 2027,” especially because Los Angeles has a few more bright spots than we are used to (sans Shohei Ohtani).
Among them is a pair of top-rotation starters that teams actually have to worry about. Reid Detmers has 4.6 fWAR to his name, and John Mozeliak opted not to trade him at the deadline, giving the Angels another chance to capitalize on a developmental success. In Year 6, Detmers has set career-best marks in innings (179), quality starts (15), ERA (3.47), FIP (3.05), and fWAR. He’s gotten the walks under control and done a better job at mitigating damage than in years past—if he doesn’t allow a homer the rest of the way, he won’t set a new high for dingers despite the increased workload.
Detmers is finally the pitcher we have hoped for, and he has a worthy sidekick. Walbert Ureña is a true breakout, blossoming from a mediocre prospect to one of baseball’s best stories. Ureña pairs a turbo sinker with a changeup that’s currently registering a 38% whiff rate and .217 xSLG. Hitters have hardly pulled the ball in the air against him, and his ability to match the movement profiles of his sinker and changeup grants him extra deception. That might give his strikeout numbers some staying power, and if he continues punching out nearly a quarter of batters faced, Los Angeles is going to be feisty on his bump days.
I’m kinda obsessed with Walbert Ureña.
It looks like he threw three different versions of the “sweeper” last night.
One version looks to be a 92 mph gyro slider. Hot DANG. pic.twitter.com/gKsLEHEKg2
— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) September 18, 2026
For an organization that has lacked quality pitching for years, this duo should give the Angels faithful real optimism.
Elsewhere, Mike Trout has helped mitigate the age curve, posting a 128 wRC+ and (more importantly) over 600 plate appearances. Wade Meckler has taken nicely to an opportunity in the corner outfield, turning a January waiver claim into a locked-in spot for next year’s lineup. Even Moisés Ballesteros, who I recently highlighted for his immense struggles, has gained some momentum in September.
Los Angeles is not in an enviable position. But with Mozeliak calling the shots and Stan Kroenke’s ownership on the horizon, the Angels could soon be closer to their next playoff appearance than their last.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) | Photo by John Cordes, Brian Rothmuller & Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire
