Assigning value is an imperfect science. By definition, value is “the regard that something is held to deserve; the importance, worth, or usefulness of something.” In Dynasty formats, values can be as inconsistent as the players they represent. As we continue to grow as an industry, the amount of opinions grows as well, some for the better and some for the worse. In any event, every person is entitled to value a player in their own way for their own reasons. Here are three players I deem to be overvalued in Dynasty.
Brooks Lee, SS, MIN
Getting a proper assessment of a player with 185 career plate appearances in the Major Leagues is daunting. But, in the case of Brooks Lee, I’m confident we know what type of player we’re getting.
Lee was a highly-regarded prospect in the Twins organization and had a productive Minor League career. In 191 games, he hit .290 with 28 homers, a .362 on-base percentage, and 58 extra-base hits. His profile is built on a solid plate approach, a plus-hit tool, and decent speed. Lee made consistent contact with good batted ball data (90.5 mph avg EV/ 103 mph 90th) in the Minors, showing more extra-base power than HR power. As a switch-hitter, he excelled from the left side of the plate, posting a .860 OPS compared to a .603 from the right side. A herniated disc held him out of action until mid-May last season. But, as Lee approached the Majors following his return, his power ticked up, smashing eight homers in his first 25 games at Triple-A.
The Twins recalled Lee on July 3rd, 2024, and he got off to a red-hot start. Over his first eight games, Lee slashed .364/.371/.576 with two homers and nine RBI in 33 at-bats. Things started to even out for Lee before a shoulder injury landed him on the IL in early August. Over his final 44 games, he hit just .182 with two homers and a .503 OPS. Lee had an impressive 14.6% strikeout rate despite chasing nearly 36% of the time in his limited sample. His batted ball data was poor in the Majors, including an 85.8 mph average EV, 4.1% barrel rate, and 24.5% hard-hit rate. It’s a tiny sample for a player adjusting to MLB pitching, but elite contact skills don’t necessarily translate to power, and we’ve seen this before with players like Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan. I’m not saying Lee is either of those players, but his combination of power/contact is in a similar realm.
So why is Lee overvalued?
I understand the safety of a player who offers a high floor with above-average batting average and good, but not great, power. But, I have two significant concerns with Lee. In multiple outlets, Lee frequently appears inside the Top 150 (or higher) dynasty assets, which is way too high.
First, Lee does not have a carrying tool in fantasy. His best asset is his batting average, which will likely peak around .290. That is a solid batting average and someone who would stabilize a fantasy lineup. Unfortunately, that doesn’t always lead to outstanding value, as a Top 150 player would indicate. Lee’s power is minimal. He could reach 20 homers if the stars align, but 10-12 homers annually is a much more realistic expectation. The Twins dabbled with Lee in the middle of the lineup, which would help his counting stats, but the offensive upside is still limited. I view Lee as a poor man’s version of Xander Bogaerts, only it’s the current version of Bogaerts, not the edition we saw as a viable fantasy asset from 2018-2021. That type of player, especially at SS or even 3B, only carries a little weight aside from a MI or CI role.
The second concern is that Lee may not be a regular. His splits are poor against LHP, and while he would still be on the strong side of a platoon, that would limit his at-bats. Lee could exclusively move to the left side, but even then, we know the Twins don’t play their left-handed hitters against same-side pitching. It becomes a scenario that I’d prefer to avoid in most formats, although he could provide added value in OBP formats with daily lineups.
Final Thoughts
I have Lee outside my Top 250 overall and as my 31st-rated shortstop. I see value in his profile, but I need more to justify a high ranking. In a best-case scenario, Lee delivers a .290/20/80/80 outcome. That’s a solid season, but it would be an outlier result in an otherwise average career.
Tanner Houck, SP, BOS
I am a Red Sox fan; if you’ve read my work before, you already know this. If not, here is my disclaimer. Since his debut, Tanner Houck has been a point of contention for Red Sox fans. In his rookie season, he pitched well, posting an 0.53 ERA in three starts in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. The following season, the Red Sox started toying with Houck, moving him in and out of the rotation at will, which continued into 2022. In his first two seasons, Houck had a 31% strikeout rate, which provided hope that he could blossom into a viable fantasy option. Then, Houck became a closer option for the Sox in June 2022. He saved eight games and earned five wins before a back injury ended his season in early August. He finished with a 2.70 ERA and 1.13 WHIP as a reliever, compared to 4.32 and 1.32 as a starter.
Houck was declared a starter before 2023 and would remain in that role for the “foreseeable future.” But, last season did not go well for Houck. He made 21 starts, yielding a 5.01 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He was dominant when he was going well; when he wasn’t, it was ugly. And there were very few in between. Houck struggled to command up to seven pitches with significant movement. The lack of command led to inefficiency and high pitch counts, often forcing him out of games early and with runners on base. The Red Sox bullpen didn’t help either, further inflating his ERA.
Tanner Houck took a significant step forward in 2024. Houck’s arsenal played up with the addition of Andrew Bailey as pitching coach. Bailey’s philosophy revolves around throwing your best pitches the most often, and for Houck, it was his sinker and slider. In addition, his command improved significantly as he lowered his walk rate to a career-best 6.5%, and with added efficiency, he went deeper into games. In 24 of his 30 starts, Houck pitched into the sixth inning, something he had accomplished just ten times in his previous 41 starts. Entering June, Houck had a 1.85 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 12 outings with a 24% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate and was among the frontrunners to start the All-Star Game for the AL. Houck blew past his previous innings maximum (106) as the season progressed and wore down. After June 1st, his ERA was 4.11, with a strikeout rate of 18.3% and a walk-rate near 8%. The 2024 season was a success for Houck (3.12 ERA & 1.14 WHIP) and has caused him to be significantly overvalued in fantasy.
So why is Houck overvalued?
Following his incredible start, Houck was a trendy play in Redraft and Dynasty last season. With the gains in command and increased innings, his dynasty stock soared from the high 200s inside the Top 150 in some places. The top 150 range in my rankings includes SPs like Kodai Senga, Bryan Woo, Jack Flaherty, etc. Those are SP2 types with above-average carrying tools (mainly strikeouts), few flaws, and increased win potential. I don’t see Houck in that light. Here’s why.
Houck is below average in strikeout production. Even with three pitches that grade above 80 on the PLV, he posted a 20.7% strikeout rate this season with a 22.5% whiff rate. Both of those metrics rank in the bottom third in the league. His career-best strikeout rate was 2022 (22.7%), during which he spent most of his season in the bullpen. As a starter, Houck has a 21% strikeout rate and averages around 8 Ks per 9. Only two pitchers would be considered among the elite arms with that strikeout rate among qualified starters: Logan Webb and Sandy Alcantara. When you factor in his K-BB rate of ~14%, again, you find Alcantara and a bunch of barely rosterable SPs like Jordan Lyles and Miles Mikolas. Not elite company by any stretch.
Regression is coming. Houck had a 6.5% walk rate, a 3.12 ERA, and a 1.14 WHIP last season, all career-bests. Even with the gains in command, Houck is still a mid-7% walk rate, ERA over 4, and 1.2 WHIP kind of guy. In fact, his expected ERA last season was 4.05. Guys who pitch to contact rarely sustain ratios that low over the course of their careers, and I have no supporting data to indicate that Houck will.
Inning concerns should be a factor. Houck tossed 178 2/3 innings in 2024, 70+ innings over his career high (106). Once he reached that mark, he started to collapse. Over his last 71 innings spanning 13 outings, his ERA was 3.80 with a 16.1% K-rate, 9.5% BB-rate, 4.41 xFIP, and 1.32 WHIP. Houck may reach that workload again, but what results will we see? There is not enough track record to suggest that this is sustainable.
Final Thoughts
I love Tanner Houck. He’s a gamer and a grinder, and I love the passion he brings to the Red Sox. As a fantasy asset, he’s pretty meh. The volume is fine, but the ratios are below average, and the win potential is marginal. Houck is inside my Top 250 overall, ranking 69th among SPs. Barring a significant skill change, that’s about as high as I can justify ranking Houck in the long run.
Andrés Muñoz, RP, SEA
Great closers are hard to find in fantasy. In rare instances, you’ll find an Emmanuel Clase or Edwin Díaz who dominates over a multi-year span and becomes genuinely elite. Even more rare are the Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel types who continue to get saves despite losing their premium stuff. Most closers have an abbreviated shelf life, spanning a few seasons with ups and downs before ultimately giving way to the next big thing. So, it is challenging to project their longevity when evaluating a closer in dynasty. With that in mind, let’s talk about Andrés Muñoz of the Seattle Mariners.
Munoz burst onto the scene in 2022, posting a 2.49 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, dominating hitters with his high-octane arsenal. In 64 appearances, Munoz racked up 22 holds and four saves as the primary setup man for closer Paul Sewald. With a slider that generated a near-30% swinging strike rate and a triple-digits fastball, Munoz had the arsenal to take the next step.
Unfortunately, Munoz was bitten by the injury bug early in the 2023 season. He missed most of the first two months with a shoulder strain. When he returned in June, Munoz posted 11 holds and two saves in 22 games, with a 3.38 ERA and 35.6% strikeout rate. When the Mariners abruptly traded closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks, Munoz became the guy in Seattle. Immediately, fantasy owners reaped Munoz’s benefits in his new role. Despite blowing two save chances, he finished August with nine saves, a 32.8% strikeout rate, and a 1.93 ERA. His season concluded with a 2.94 ERA, 13 saves, and 14 holds.
Munoz was solid again in 2024. In 60 games, he converted 22 of 27 save chances with a 2.12 ERA and a 33.2% strikeout rate. At 25, Munoz has 40 career saves with an ERA below 3, averaging 12.4 Ks/9.
So why is Munoz overvalued?
First and foremost, his saves output could be better. He had a career-high 22 saves this season as the primary closer on a team that won 85 games. Those 22 saves were the 19th most in baseball behind guys like Pete Fairbanks, who was oft-injured, and Craig Kimbrel, who lost his job in early August. He finished tied with Tanner Scott, who was traded to a setup role in July, and one ahead of Trevor Megill, who was the Brewers’ closer until late July and converted one save after Devin Williams returned. “Elite” closers reach 35+ saves, and really good closers should push for 30. It’s not necessarily his fault, but team context is an important consideration. Maybe Munoz gets to that pretty good level with a new manager coming. Under the Scott Servais regime as the team’s manager (’16-’24), one Mariners closer exceeded 30 saves, Edwin Díaz, who saved 57 in 2018.
Second is his volatility. Munoz has dazzled with his strikeout numbers, sporting a 34.2% career strikeout rate and the 12.4 Ks per 9 as mentioned earlier. With that comes a 9.6% walk rate and six hits per 9. While Munoz has incredible stuff, he allows plenty of baserunners and has blown 13 of 53 opportunities (24.5%) or one-quarter of his chances. Everyone is human, but when your saves output is the main factor in your value, a 75% success rate is subpar.
The third reason is his injury history. In addition to his shoulder injury in 2023, Munoz has missed significant time with a deltoid injury, elbow soreness, and multiple foot injuries. He appeared in back-to-back games just 11 times last season and has never pitched three consecutive days. With so much focus on playing matchups, load management, etc., Munoz will never have the opportunity to reach elite levels, and for me, that’s not a Top 5 closer in dynasty.
Final Thoughts
Munoz is being treated as an elite closer, but based on the information above, I’m concerned that he will not reach that production level. The combination of lack of production, inconsistent command, and injury woes is problematic and will ultimately limit his value in Dynasty.