We are officially in March, meaning the Fantasy Baseball Draft season is ramping up in preparation for Opening Day. When evaluating pitchers to draft, it’s always important to view different kinds of data to ensure productivity from selected pitchers for the upcoming 2025 fantasy baseball season.
One way to evaluate pitchers and hitters is through Pitcher List’s PLV tools, which are available with a PL Pro subscription.
Created and managed by Kyle Bland, PLV helps fantasy baseball managers and baseball fans better understand pitcher and hitter skills and how those translate into success (or explain a lack of success). PLV helps baseball fans understand the “why” behind a player’s strengths and weaknesses. That helps give an idea of what to predict from that particular player for an upcoming stretch of fantasy baseball, whether it’s a large or small sample.
In this post, I will identify five pitchers PLV loved from 2024, and why fantasy managers should target them in their fantasy drafts. All ADP data comes from NFC.
Logan Webb (ADP: 104.08)
Webb had another solid year for the Giants in 2024. In 204.2 IP, he posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 13 wins and 20 quality starts. The CSW% regressed slightly, as his 29.5% mark was the first time it had been under 30% since 2020. However, his PLV metrics demonstrated that he was one of the more dependable starters in fantasy in 2024.
The San Francisco ace’s 5.38 PLV ranked in the 96th percentile, and his 53.5% quality pitch percentage also ranked in the 96th percentile via Pitcher List. His 29.3% QP-BP% also shared that 96th percentile ranking and his 5.1% MTK% (mistake percentage) ranked in the 78th percentile. Webb primarily succeeded with three pitches: sinker, changeup, and sweeper. All three pitches had well above-average PLV marks, and he threw the three offerings a combined 90% of the time last season.
The four-seamer and cutter ranked poorly on a PLV end last year, but he only threw the two offerings eight percent of the time. Conversely, he threw his slider only 2% of the time in 2024, but it sported the best PLV of his arsenal at 5.89. Thus, it’ll be interesting to see if Webb incorporates his slider more in 2025 and four-seamer and cutter even less. That could lead to even more PLV and fantasy success this season.
Joe Ryan (ADP: 107.27)
Ryan started the season hot, but injuries limited him to only 135 IP in 2024. When he was on the mound, he produced solid fantasy production. He posted a 3.60 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 27.3% K rate, and 30.6% CSW%. Those numbers alone should make him one of the more targeted pitchers in the 100+ ADP range (and one could argue that he could go even sooner, especially if he can stay healthy).
Regarding PLV, there’s a lot to like about Ryan’s profile. His 30.1% QP-BP% ranked in the 95th percentile, his 5.38 PLV in the 96th percentile, and his 55% Quality Pitch% in the 99th percentile. Furthermore, he sports a deep five-pitch mix with four offerings well above average in terms of PLV.
The sweeper (5.62) and four-seamer (5.45) were rated his best pitches on a PLV end. Interestingly, his four-seamer was incredibly effective on a PLV end despite sporting mediocre average velocity (94 MPH). His splitter was the only pitch that hovered around average regarding PLV, with a 5.06 PLV and 3.22 PLA. It’s not a flawed offering by any means, but he threw it 22% of the time a season ago.
The slider (5.48) and sinker (5.20) were rated as better offerings last year, and Ryan could consider incorporating both pitches more and the splitter less in 2025. Even if there isn’t a dramatic change in usage, Ryan has the potential to be a Top-100 pitcher this year based on his PLV skills.
Tanner Houck (ADP: 225.61)
The offseason acquisitions of Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler may be getting more noise this spring, but fantasy managers should not be ignoring Houck, who may be a bargain in drafts at his ADP range. In 178.2 IP last year, he posted a 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 29.9% CSW. The K rate (20.7%) and wins (nine) left a bit to be desired last year, but he should be getting much better run support in 2025, especially with the arrival of Alex Bregman from Houston.
On a PLV end, his profile is up there with Webb and Ryan, even though he’s projected to go about 120 picks later in drafts. His 5.39 PLV and 54.0% Quality Pitch percentage rank in the 98th percentile, and his 28.1% QP-BP% rank in the 94th percentile. Houck’s arsenal is effective because he maximizes his best pitches on a PLV end and minimizes his weakest-rated offerings.
The sweeper (5.57) and cutter (4.97) are rated as below-average PLV offerings, but he only threw the two pitches 13% of the time in 2024. Conversely, he threw his slider (5.49) and splitter (5.42) a combined 55% of the time last year. Both pitches were rated as his best PLV offerings and in the 80-ish percentile range.
Houck’s continued utilization of this arsenal could lead to more success in his surface-level metrics in 2025, making him more productive in most fantasy formats.
Griffin Jax (ADP: 318.54)
Technically, Jax is the setup man behind Jhoan Duran in Minnesota (at least according to Roster Resource). However, Jax saved 10 games in 2024 and posted impressive numbers in his hybrid/setup role. In 71 IP, he produced a 2.03 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 34.4% K%, and 36.9% CSW. Considering Duran regressed in the second half (4.56 ERA and 1.39 WHIP after the All-Star Break), Jax getting more save opportunities in 2025 isn’t totally out of the realm of possibility.
Jax’s PLV metrics should also sway fantasy managers thinking about taking a late-round flier on Jax in deeper fantasy leagues (i.e., 12-team or 15-team formats primarily).
Jax’s 5.59 PLV and 45.9% QP-BP percentage ranked in the 99th percentile, and his 61.5% Quality Pitch percentage ranked in the 100th percentile. His 2.4% MTK rate ranked in the 96th percentile, and nearly all of his pitches not only ranked above average on a PLV end but borderline elite.
Jax had three offerings (four-seamer, changeup, and curve) with PLV marks over 5.50 and four (those three and the sweeper) with PLV numbers under two. Hence, Jax has the kind of pitch profile that can get batters out due to the variety and quality of that diverse arsenal.
The 30-year-old righty could be a nice late-inning option for managers willing to be patient as he cedes save opportunities early on in the season to Duran. However, with the Twins looking to return to the postseason after missing out in 2024, Jax’s save opportunities may come sooner rather than later.
Danny Young (ADP: UR)
Young is a tough one in fantasy, as his role is not fantasy-friendly unless in an NL-only or super deep-league format. However, his PLV data is so good that fantasy managers should target him as a possible waiver wire option during the season.
The peripheral metrics are a bit “meh” at first glance. In 37.2 IP, he posted a 4.54 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP. He had no saves and only seven holds in 42 outings with the Mets in 2024, which deflates his value in leagues that count holds in scoring. However, he had a 29.1% K rate and 33.6% CSW, which made him look much better.
On a PLV end, however, his numbers were eye-popping. His 5.51 PLV and 42% QP-BP percentage ranked in the 99th percentile, and his 55.6% Quality Pitch percentage ranked in the 93rd percentile. Lastly, he only sported a 1.4% MTK%, which ranked in the 100th percentile. Even though the results weren’t awesome last year, Young’s process and pitch quality were encouraging and could demonstrate that he’s ready for a breakout in 2025.
Young’s arsenal is pretty thin, with only two pitches: sweeper and sinker. That said, both pitches were rated as solid offerings via PLV.
As stated before, Young probably shouldn’t be drafted in most league formats, and it wouldn’t hurt for managers to wait and see for a couple of weeks to figure out Young’s role in the Mets bullpen this season.
However, Young should be on fantasy managers’ watch lists after their drafts are completed. He should likely be available on waivers and worth swooping up (for a low FAAB amount), especially if injuries or poor performance beset one of their relievers on their respective squads.
Love you guys, but the knock is that you need a PhD in baseball to understand the insider jargon. It’s hard to tell what I’m looking at in the graphs and what the proprietary metrics signify. Please:
1. Provide some context in the article and glossary entry for PLV – what’s are the ranges of PLV that correspond to elite/good/average/bad?
2. PLA is not in the PL glossary. What does it signify? What’s the scale of good to bad?
3. it took a while for me to figure out the distribution curves are league-wide for specific pitch types, not specific to the pitcher. But when I look at sweeper distribution, it looks like the pitch has a narrow band and is high performing by PLV across the league. Is that right?
4. So if Houck has a below median sweeper, but it still has a high PLV, is that a bad pitch overall?