I've already led with Jake Arrieta once this season, where I talked about his need to change his approach given that his Slider just isn't cutting it these days. After yesterday's 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks against the Cardinals, I'm finding it harder and harder to believe that he'll make all the adjustments to get back on track in the near future. That two-run HR to Matt Carpenter was a complete mistake Fastball that he wouldn't make in the past, and that doesn't have to do with a repertoire shift. I feel so conflicted here. On one hand, it's a .355 BABIP with a 60.9% LOB rate, he's brought his walk numbers from its atrocious 2016 levels to a great 2.62 BB/9, and he's hold a 3.56 SIERA + 23.5% soft contact. On the other, his groundball rate has plummeted to 40.2%, hard contact comfortably above 30% for the first time since 2010, and a 4.15 FIP is somewhat believable here. This is seven straight starts of 3+ ER we're dealing with here and an IPS just above 5.5. That's horrendous for Arrieta standards. I think it does get better, though it's hard for me to turn down getting someone like Zack Greinke, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers or Michael Fulmer at this point.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
What do you make on a pair of LHP’s v the Yankees?Duffy, who’s numbers arent half bad v the rest of the league sans CHW and Vargas off that masterpiece last week?
I always felt this way about Samardzija even when he was sinking ships. He has such powerful stuff and I think his key has been refining his slider and tweaking his cutter. Guys used to tee off on his power stuff since they weren’t afraid of his breaking stuff, but 7 of the 8 punchouts last night were on Fastballs/Cutters so something is definitely working. I *think* they made an adjustment to his cutter which I think was too closely mimicking his 4 Seamer by trading a little velocity for some extra movement and making it a little more slider-esque. I just remember his cutter being 91-93mph with his regular fastball being only a few ticks above that. Now the cutter is coming in a little slower and I think Pitch/fx is mistaking them for sliders. Either way, I have high hopes.
Good stuff Morgan, I think you’re right about the subtle changes to his Cutter. Loved the command I saw of it against the Reds, pinpointing it right off the outside corner to RHB to get a whiff here and there.