Best Bets of the Day – April 25th

Andrew Gould highlights his favorite bets for Sunday's games.

Last Sunday was rough, as all three recommended bets flopped. The Marlins suffered a 1-0 loss to a returning Alex Wood and the Giants. The Dodgers’ then-hot bats went cold, and Madison Bumgarner remembered how to pitch. Sports betting is an often humbling endeavor. The key is not to get too arrogant after a hot streak or too down after misses. Of course, this also means gambling responsibly and never wagering money you can’t afford to lose.

For the forgiving type willing to write off last Sunday’s whiffs, here’s a new batch of bets to hopefully end your week on a high note.


Jesús Luzardo: O/U 5.5 Strikeouts

Luzardo has had a tumultuous April, trading solid outings with five-run explosions against the Astros and Diamondbacks. Through those perils, the young righty has upped his strikeout rate to 25.3% and has offered at least six punchouts in three of four starts. The only time he fell short was when Arizona chased him out of the third inning.

Let’s bet on Baltimore not pounding Luzardo in a similar fashion. Only the Tigers possess a lower team wOBA, and the Orioles’ 27.4% strikeout rate is MLB’s fifth-highest clip. Luzardo just needs to pitch five or six frames, which is reasonable after limiting the Twins to three base runners across 5.1 innings Tuesday. Looking at his 4.24 FIP, 4.12 SIERA, and 3.81 xERA, there’s little reason to panic over his 5.89 ERA.

Pick: Over (+110 on DraftKings)


Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: Moneyline

The Mets have lost five of their last six games not started by Jacob deGrom by a minus-25 run margin. Heck, they even wasted his first two gems of the season. Nearly everyone else is under-performing. Despite drawing plenty of walks, they’ve registered a putrid 3.25 runs per game. The rotation also remains erratic beyond their other-worldly ace. Although Taijuan Walker has posted a 3.21 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 14 innings, he also permitted six of his 11 walks during Tuesday’s loss against the Cubs.

His opponent has looked far worse this month, but he pitched far better earlier this week.

Patrick Corbin looked beyond atrocious in his first two starts, allowing six runs to the Dodgers and 10 to the Diamondbacks. He bounced back, however, with six shutout frames in his last outing. After issuing seven walks in the prior two appearances, he didn’t allow any free passes to the Cardinals. His fastball and sinker velocity crept back up to 91 mph, which was around where he operated during a breakthrough in 2018.

The Mets are eventually going to start hitting; a lineup buoyed by Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, and Jeff McNeil won’t maintain baseball’s worst OPS with runners in scoring position all season. Yet three of those four — Alonso hit moonshot home runs Wednesday and Thursday — can’t buy a hit at the moment, and Corbin is the first left-handed starter they’ll encounter since Trevor Rogers tallied 10 strikeouts over six shutout innings on April 10.

Washington’s lineup is depleted without Juan Soto, and Corbin is far from trustworthy following one good start. But the lethargic Mets are getting treated as enough of a favorite to take the other side.

Pick: Nationals (+132 on FanDuel, +130 on DraftKings)


Total Runs by Seattle Mariners (vs. Boston Red Sox): O/U 3.5

Seattle has already scored 20 runs in three games against Boston, offering at least five in each contest. The unexpectedly successful club has plated at least four runs in 16 of 21 games this season and averaged 4.5 per bout. Sure, it’d be nice if Jarred Kelenic got his exposure to lefties against Eduardo Rodriguez this Sunday. For now, even though the Mariners may be playing with fool’s gold without their premier prospect, let’s ride the hot hands atop their lineup. Righties Ty France and Mitch Haniger are off to blazing starts, boasting a wOBA of .410 and .370, respectively.

Back from heart complications resulting from COVID-19, Rodriguez has registered a 3.38 ERA and 2.96 SIERA. Nobody is looking to disparage his incredible comeback story, but he’ll have a tough time maintaining such a high bar of success. The southpaw sports a 4.02 career ERA and has allowed two homers in two of his three starts this season. Besides, Boston’s bullpen is also questionable beyond closer Matt Barnes and breakout long reliever Garrett Whitlock.

While the oddsmakers are probably right to expect a Red Sox victory, the Mariners can still muster four or five runs in a losing effort.

Pick: Over (+100 on DraftKings)


Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Runs

Vegas was initially pretending Monday never happened. Ready to give Lucas Giolito a mulligan for his eight-run shellacking on Patriots Day, the White Sox opened as heavy favorites with a 7.5-run line. Giolito should be OK, but redemption will have to wait.

According to The Athletic’s James Fegan, the White Sox are pushing back his start after cutting the middle finger on his pitching hand. Michael Kopech, who has dominated mostly from the bullpen, draws the assignment instead. The change shouldn’t necessarily relieve the Rangers too much. Nevertheless, the current run line is more likely to go over with Kopech — who worked just three innings in his first start of the season last Sunday — toeing the rubber.

FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to reopen wagering for this game as of 10 a.m. ET, but the same run line remains on DraftKings. The odds, however, shifted from +100 to -112.

The hope here is that Chicago needs little help providing offensive fireworks. Entering Sunday, the White Sox rank fourth in team wRC+ and sixth in wOBA. Tim Anderson is back from a hamstring injury, and Yoán Moncada has recovered from an early slumber to go 9-for-18 with three walks, a double, and a homer in his last four games. Even after last night’s 2-1 pitching stalemate, their games have recorded a cumulative average of 9.2 runs.

Coming off consecutive scoreless outings, Kohei Arihara is no easy adversary. However, his Statcast page is a sea of blue. His first four opponents amassed four barrels and a 94.0-mph average velocity that places the MLB newcomer in the bottom-three percentile. The 28-year-old wields a 2.21 ERA and .283 opposing wOBA, but a 6.11 xERA and .392 xwOBA signify trouble down the road.

Pick: Over (-112 on DraftKings)


Andrew Gould Overall Record: 4-6

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): -$127.52

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Andrew Gould

Andrew is Pitcher List's DFS Manager who also covers MLB and NFL for FantasyPros and Bleacher Report. He placed second in FantasyPros' MLB accuracy ratings in 2016 and fifth in 2018.

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