Welcome to Best Bets, Friday edition. I’m your host, Tim Speros, but you can call me cousin Timmy. My goal for this article is to hit for the cycle. The four hits will start with a single, our mostly likely bet to hit according to the odds and will finish with my Home Run of the night, our most difficult bet to hit according to the odds. Grab your helmet, adjust your batting gloves if you’re wearing any, and step up to the plate, it’s time to swing the bat. Ready to win some money? Let’s go.
Single
LA Dodgers Money line (-195 DK)
Our first taste of Coors Field in 2022 and we get the Dodgers. We have Walker Buehler (LAD) vs Kyle Freeland (COR) on the mound. Both teams have new lineups this season. The Dodgers lost Corey Seager, AJ Pollock, and Closer Kenley Jansen but added Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrel. The Rockies lost sluggers Nolan Arenado last year at the trade deadline and Trevor Story to free agency. They did sign Khris Bryant who will likely bat 2nd in the lineup tonight and just traded Rameal Tapia for Randal Grichuk. Now let’s look at the stats to back up the bet.
- LA was 7-3 @ Coors Field in 2021
- Walker Buehler is coming off a career year of 16-4, with a 26% K rate, and a 0.97 Whip (4th best in the league)
- The Rockies bullpen ranked in the bottom five of several major pitching categories in 2021 and 2022 will likely be the same
- Kyle Freeland career @ Coors Field is not great, supporting a 4.44 ERA and 1.41 WHIP
Double
Young stud Shane McClanahan gets a juicy matchup with the Orioles in his first start in 2022. A team that had the fourth highest K% vs. LHP post all-star, just added Rougned Odor to their lineup. The Orioles have some talent with 2021 breakout Cedric Mullins and power-hitting Ryan Mountcastle, but the rest of their lineup is strikeout happy. McClanahan had seven or more strikeouts in three of his four starts vs. the Orioles in 2021. In what could be a pitchers duel vs. John Means, I’m confident Shane will clear 5.5 Ks.
Shane McClanahan OVER 5.5 Ks (-115 DK)
Triple
It’s the first time in three years the Blue Jays will have a real opening day in Toronto with fans. The house should be rocking and MVP favorite Vlad Guerrero Jr will be ready to spark the crowd. Jon Grey is on the mound for Texas and is poised to have a good season, however I don’t think his success starts today. Gray was striking out batters at a high rate to end his 2021 campaign but he registered a 7.15 ERA surrendering seven home runs in his final 22 innings. He’s on a new team now with Texas and pitching away from Coors but in 2021, he had an awful .399 wOBA vs. RHH on the road.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 DK)
Home Run
Back, back, back, gone! Yahtzee! Kiss it goodbye! Yes! It’s time for the home run call of the night. We are going to the best rivalry in baseball, Yankees vs. Red Sox. Gerrit Cole vs. Nathan Eovaldi. Coming off a career-high 38 HR in 2021, Rafael Devers is going for 45 in 2022! What better way to start his campaign than opening day vs. the Yankees. Only 314 feet to the right field porch. Cole is an elite power pitcher, but he gives up a lot of home runs, 24 in 2021, good for 12th most in the league. 13 of the HR were served up to LHH. Devers hit 6 HR in 27 spring training at bats and has 3 career home runs in 19 at bats vs. Cole. If Cole gives up any runs tonight, there is likely to be a homer or two involved. At +320 odds, Devers is primed to get us a nice ROI with a dinger.
Rafael Devers OVER 0.5 HR (+310 DK)
There you have it folks, your first chance to hit for the cycle with me in 2022. If you parlay these bets together you get odds of +2276. Good luck tonight and I hope you win some beer money for the weekend. See you next time.
Tim Speros Overall Record: 0-0-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $0.00
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
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