After a brief break for the All-Star festivities, I am back with my first betting article of the second half, looking to start off hot. I am so excited for the beginning of this second half of baseball that I am throwing in an extra bet for all of you today. After a weekend of baseball that was pure chaos, between the insanity in the Mets/Pirates series and the scary situation in D.C., let’s see what the MLB has to offer us on this Monday:
Red Sox @ Blue Jays Total Runs O/U 10.5
A fun matchup between the Red Sox and Blue Jays gets us started today and we have Nick Pivetta on the bump for Boston with Ross Stripling going for Toronto. In my mind, Pivetta and Stripling are virtually the same pitcher and it is not a pitcher I like against either of these offenses. The Blue Jays bashed their way to an easy sweep of the Rangers over the weekend, scoring 25 runs in just 23 innings. Toronto has also bashed around Nick Pivetta in two starts this season, totaling 13 hits and 11 runs in 10 innings.
While Boston didn’t quite enjoy the same success against the Yankees this weekend, this is still a very talented team offensively led by All-Stars Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. In two starts against Stripling this season, the Red Sox have piled up 13 hits and 10 ER in 9.1 innings. Look for runs aplenty in this battle of AL East playoff hopefuls.
Pick: OVER 10.5 Runs (-115 DK, -115 FD)
Joey Gallo to Hit a Home Run
This one is pretty simple. In two career at-bats against Casey Mize, Joey Gallo has two home runs. That’s all of the at-bats. Sure the odds of him hitting yet another home run off of Mize might not be great, but Gallo also hasn’t hit a home run in a game since the All-Star break and with him it is only a matter of time. Well I think that time is tonight as Gallo continues his dominance of young Casey Mize.
Pick: YES (+275 DK, +220 FD)
Tim Anderson/Tommy Edman Total Hits O/U 0.5
Tim Anderson started the second half off in impressive fashion, going 6-for-13 (.462 AVG) in three games against the Astros with two HRs. In the first game of a double-header against Minnesota on Monday, he gets to face Twins rookie Griffin Jax, he-of-the-8.66-ERA. Hitting at the top of the White Sox lineup, Anderson should have multiple opportunities against the 26-year old and I’m betting on him to continue his hot start post-break.
For Tommy Edman we are going down the same path as Joey Gallo, as Edman has six hits in seven career at-bats against his opponent, Alec Mills. That’s almost all the at-bats. While Edman hasn’t quite replicated his breakout season from 2019, he is still a tough out at the plate. Anderson and Edman are both safe bets to get base hits against their opponents tonight and together they provide us with some solid odds at -111 on DraftKings and -109 on FanDuel.
Pick: OVER 0.5 Hits Each (-111 DK, -109 FD)
Giants @ Dodgers Total Runs After First 5 Innings O/U 4
A very interesting pitching matchup goes down out in Chavez Ravine on Monday night, with Kevin Gausman looking to further his Cy Young candidacy against Tony Gonsolin and the Dodgers. Los Angeles started off the second half hot with the bats, but that was also in Colorado against subpar pitching. Gausman might have been the best pitcher in the NL not named deGrom in the first half and has been a big reason why the Giants are in first place in the ultra-competitive NL West.
Gonsolin has been a reliable starter for the Dodgers since returning from the IL in early June, as he has yet to give up more than one ER. The only issue with Gonsolin is he does not go deep into his starts, venturing into the sixth inning just once so far this season. That is why we are only going to focus on the first five innings for this game. With Gausman’s dominance this season and the Giants struggles with the bats on Saturday and Sunday (one run in each), I like the under to hit here.
Pick: UNDER 4 Runs (-105 DK)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 35-36-2
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$488.54
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)