An unusually busy Thursday of baseball awaits us with a nice mix of day/night games and intriguing matchups. It has been a very successful first half of the season for my bottom line and hopefully you guys have been betting along with us and enjoying all of the great information and insight that Pitcher List has to offer.
This season, I have decided to treat readers to four bets in each article under the following parameters: 1) A bet on a team, 2) A bet on a total, 3) A batter prop bet, and 4) A pitcher prop bet. Hopefully, this diversification will lead to success in our wagers (but probably not).
Dodgers @ White Sox Moneyline
Despite dealing with numerous injuries over the course of the early part of this season, the White Sox continue to be one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching. On Thursday, we have an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object when Chicago’s offense takes on the Dodgers’ Tyler Anderson. A veteran somewhat journeyman, Anderson is on a run of three straight scoreless starts and outside of one blowup against Philadelphia, he hasn’t allowed more than 2 ERs in any start this season. I am a firm believe that water finds its level with veteran pitchers and Tyler Anderson is the same pitcher he has always been. He is due to come down to Earth soon and I think it will happen today against the White Sox.
The Los Angeles offense on the other hand has been sputtering lately and just hasn’t looked like the juggernaut offense we have come to expect. Over the last week the Dodgers have produced just a 77 wRC+ and just look like they’ve been in a funk ever since they miraculously got swept by the Pirates at home. Dylan Cease takes the mound for the White Sox and as long as he can keep his control issues in check, should be able to keep Los Angeles at bay and give his team an opportunity to win.
Pick: White Sox ML (+105 DK, -102 FD)
Cardinals @ Rays O/U 7 Runs
Speaking of teams that rake against LHP, the Cardinals are third in baseball with a 122 wRC+ against southpaws. However, I doubt they have faced a lefty like Shane McClanahan this season. I am a certified McLanaFan and everyone reading this should be too. The young superstar has an absurd 36.0% K% compared to a minuscule 4.9% BB% and has yet to allow more than 3 ERs in any start this season. What has made him even more lethal lately is that Tampa is letting him go deeper into games, as he has pitched at least 6 innings in each of his last five starts.
On the flip side, Miles Mikolas has actually undergone a bit of a rough stretch lately after starting the season as one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. Luckily for him, the Rays offense is just what the doctor prescribed. Over the last two weeks, the short-handed Rays have put up just an 81 wRC+ and they are clearly missing the offense that Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco provide. This is perhaps the premier pitching matchup of the day and I think both starters will go deep into the ballgame, keeping this total below the number.
Pick: UNDER 7 Runs (-115 DK, -122 FD)
Ronald Acuña Jr. Total Bases O/U 1.5
Look out baseball world, because Ronald Acuña Jr. is back. The Atlanta superstar has hits in 10 of his last 12 games after a slow start and he has blasted 3 HRs in his last three games. I mean its Ronald Acuña Jr., I’m not sure I need to say much more. But in case you’re not convinced, JT Brubaker starts for the Pirates on Thursday and he has a propensity for giving up extra-base hits. While he has done a decent job of keeping the ball in the yard this season, I think he’s gotten a little lucky compared to his 22.4% HR/FB rate from last year. Considering that his GB% is also down this year, something doesn’t add up and I think we could see some fireworks from the Atlanta offense. Add in a solid 11 MPH wind going out to center and Acuña could easily eclipse 1.5 total bases in his first at-bat.
Pick: Acuna OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105 DK, -115 FD)
Max Fried Outs Recorded O/U 18.5
As a Pirates fan, I have enjoyed watching some of the young hitters they have called up this season provide a bit of a spark for the offense. Unfortunately, the majority of those hitters are lefties and they will have a hard time against Max Fried tonight. Fried has been a workhorse for a volatile Atlanta rotation so far this season, as he has thrown at least 6 innings in nine consecutive starts including 8 shutout innings in Colorado last Friday. On the season, the Pirates are 6th-worst in baseball against LHP with an 89 wRC+ and they are getting on base at a woeful .291 clip. Fried should cruise in this one and easily hit the over 18.5 outs recorded.
Pick: Fried OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (+110 DK)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 33-29-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $960.95
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)